My current plan is to play it by ear.
Ideally I'm :
40-50 - 10%
50-54 - 15%
55-60 - 20%
I hope to be retired by this point and will likely go 70/30 to 65/35 depending upon how I feel in 20 years (I can't know in my low 40's)
But I'm keeping this all loosy goosy and re-evaluating all the time.
Search found 1070 matches
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 1:32 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Charles Ellis' suggested portfolios by age
- Replies: 61
- Views: 25059
- Tue Feb 13, 2024 4:36 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Can you do better than BND?
- Replies: 278
- Views: 35089
Re: Can you do better than BND?
I believe Jack thought there was not enough corporate bonds in the bond index. When I first added bonds, we didn't have access to BND so i've used Baird Core. and so far so good. its about 33% more corporate bonds than BND (26% vs 16%). I understand the purpose of bonds in my portfolio and the added risk and increased deviation
- Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:40 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
- Replies: 52
- Views: 6912
Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
I have one friend who is a CFP who is dabbling in direct indexing using the Inspire tool. We haven't spoken lately but I'll poke him. I'd be interested in learning more if you ever want to share via PM. I've considered doing this myself. I even created an elaborate process and identified stocks to purchase, but then realized that it would be a lot of work to maintain in the future so I didn't pull the trigger. understood on the unwinding taxable stuff point. I assumed it would be something like that. I spoke with my buddy and he basically hasn't done it enough to feel like its worth it. He lives in my area and really would like to build a product that is optimal for his believer clientele. Timothy and Eventide are the typical ones he sees ...
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 3:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
- Replies: 52
- Views: 6912
Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
I help with our churches financial curriculum (used to do FPU and/or crown financial every year but developed our own) and this would come up frequently. I'm one of a few people on our financial board who discuss this stuff regularly and this question comes up when we are doing curriculum. So I guess my question, as a fellow religious person, is this seems like an all or nothing affair. "tilting" Christian kind of seems non committal if you will. Certainly not a "you are doing it wrong" type of accusation but just based on my experience. I subscribe to the FaithFi podcast and he regularly has fund managers from many of the companies mentioned above. I appreciate the conversations even though I don't do any faith based in...
- Mon Feb 05, 2024 4:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is paying off a 2.99% mortgage always a bad idea?
- Replies: 332
- Views: 24676
Re: Is paying off a 2.99% mortgage always a bad idea?
For us, we've been there, and there was no psychological euphoric experience outside of the nice dinner we had that night. I wonder why some people (like myself) felt excited by it while others like you and StopToThink didn't. One difference may be when I paid it off, I was far from FI and at a pretty young age. I felt like it was an amazing accomplishment and knew I was on my way to being FI which would open a lot of opportunity. If I had paid it off well beyond FI (say 50x) and had millions, maybe it would have been more of a "meh" feeling. And some people just get more excited with hitting financial milestones while others are less emotional. With that said, I'm not super debt adverse and will likely get a mortgage if I upgrad...
- Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:20 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is paying off a 2.99% mortgage always a bad idea?
- Replies: 332
- Views: 24676
Re: Is paying off a 2.99% mortgage always a bad idea?
my story : we bought a fixer upper low end home a year into our marriage. 6.6% 30 yr. we paid it off and renovated as much as we could and sold it for 2x what we paid for it and lived in it for almost a decade. The next home we bought we only put 20% down, jumpstarted our retirement and kept money aside for a few renovations. the mortgage was about 4%. At that point we also opened a brokerage and began investing the extra principle (treat it like a 15%) off the guidance of my boss. it has now been another decade since we have began that. We moved again, and in 2018 got a 4.65 and refied in 2020 to a 2.8%. in 10 years of paying a 30 yr like a 15 but extra payments are going to a brokerage, we are at the point where we could write a check and...
- Mon Feb 05, 2024 10:09 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is paying off a 2.99% mortgage always a bad idea?
- Replies: 332
- Views: 24676
Re: Is paying off a 2.99% mortgage always a bad idea?
our bank is pushing HELOC's and Refi's pretty heavy. We have about 50% equity in our home and must fit some category for this because my brother has the same bank with only about 25% equity and gets nothing. he did not refy and is at a 4.75% too. we are at 2.8%.nisiprius wrote: ↑Sat Jan 27, 2024 9:12 amSerious question: are people with low-interest rate mortgages getting leaflets and mailings from their banks suggesting how great it would be to pay off the mortgage?
- Thu Feb 01, 2024 10:39 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Primecap funds
- Replies: 14
- Views: 2474
Re: Primecap funds
Its cheap active management if you can get it. and for Jack that was his favorite kind of active management. I think its 30 basis points if I'm remembering.
My FIL had significant assets in the fund but when switched to another asset manager had to lose it. He would def be open to getting back in.
My FIL had significant assets in the fund but when switched to another asset manager had to lose it. He would def be open to getting back in.
- Wed Jan 24, 2024 11:03 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Schwab is struggling
- Replies: 48
- Views: 11799
Re: Schwab is struggling
I have TD now Schwab in my main accounts. I was able to go to the schwab local office a few times even with TDA stuff and was super impressed with the office. everyone I worked with and spoke to.
I also have some stuff at fidelity and there are no local offices for me which has been a reason i'm not 100% fidelity. I probably would survive without it, fidelity has been pretty responsive.
I also have some stuff at fidelity and there are no local offices for me which has been a reason i'm not 100% fidelity. I probably would survive without it, fidelity has been pretty responsive.
- Tue Jan 23, 2024 9:43 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Passive exceeds active
- Replies: 7
- Views: 970
Re: Passive exceeds active
Its always interesting when people are like "when does this disrupt markets...active trading sets the price" I'm like even in the fund/etf world, they only make up like 30% of all stock ownership. and even so, how much index investing is done at a true market allocation? probably very little. I have a friend who is 100% VGT and is like I'M AN INDEX INVESTOR
- Thu Jan 18, 2024 9:04 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How can PortfolioVisualizer help me stop clinging to Contrafund?
- Replies: 32
- Views: 3764
Re: How can PortfolioVisualizer help me stop clinging to Contrafund?
well Contrafund has transformed into a large cap growth fund over the last 20-25 years. and the last 15 of that its trailed the large cap index by quite a bit. So a 20% investment in say VIGAX would of netted you a larger return. Given that, along side retirement looming for Danoff, I'm not sure its something I would invest in moving forward.
- Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:22 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Boglehead's remorse?
- Replies: 102
- Views: 19594
Re: Boglehead's remorse?
if I understand correctly you sold individual stock to invest in commercial real estate. neither one of those things have anything to do with being a boglehead?
- Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:44 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Should I sell my AGTHX for VOO?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 2915
Re: Should I sell my AGTHX for VOO?
AGTHX is a solid fund but VOO has a higher expected return net of fees and is more diversified. If you wanted a growth bias there are also cheaper funds. I would definitely stop paying the load fee with new contributions. Maybe I missed it somewhere, is this in a taxable account, employer plan, or IRA? This is all in a taxable account, I'm going to start a Roth IRA this year and max it. Tax drag is a huge problem with AGTHX in taxable accounts. you will have taxable gains of around $4.60 for every share you held in 2023. or around $5k. that has tremendous performance consequences. and will moving forward. It may not be a big deal today because as a student you may have little earnings. in VTI I believe it would of been under $1000 bucks in...
- Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:28 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: To those of you who slice and dice your bond allocation, what do you like other than BND?
- Replies: 55
- Views: 15964
Re: To those of you who slice and dice your bond allocation, what do you like other than BND?
I use a actively managed bond fund. BCOIX. Baird's core bond. Its a little riskier as it has more corporate bonds but as I reached an age where I thought it prudent to begin bond investing upon my research, you could tell Bogle was not a big fan of the bond index as constructed and I used that as my leaping off point. At the time I had the option of Pimco total return and used that, now in my 401k I have the option of the baird product. In my IRA's I do use BND.
- Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:33 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Should I sell my AGTHX for VOO?
- Replies: 30
- Views: 2915
Re: Should I sell my AGTHX for VOO?
a few things of note about AGTHX and American Funds - AGTHX is the bellcow of the American Fund options. Its the best performing mutual fund they've had since its inception. - Go speak to any number of advisors/brokers/whatever and when young people come to them, they open IRA's and chuck it all in AGTHX..pretty standard. - Many american funds did a great job sidestepping the tremendous down market of the dot come bubble. still had losses but not as great as many other household fund family names. - as a result (and due to other things) American funds skyrocket to the largest mutual fund company in regards to AUM in the 04/05 time frame. - AGTHX is the largest actively managed mutual fund. Many consider it a closet index fund as a result be...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:21 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
- Replies: 102
- Views: 108509
Re: Best book to convince someone investing isn't gambling
If investing is gambling...everything is gambling. this is how I approach it. Going to college is gambling. owning a business is gambling. getting a job at place A when where are hundreds of other jobs is a gamble. deciding on shrimp before a long trip the next day is gambling. We make gambles every day of the week.
I went to a conservative Christian school and our investments professor seemingly was defending investing to many who thought this way and had a pretty succinct answer that seemed to thwart these concerns.
I went to a conservative Christian school and our investments professor seemingly was defending investing to many who thought this way and had a pretty succinct answer that seemed to thwart these concerns.
- Tue Dec 26, 2023 2:54 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Rich Author, Poor Readers - Ben Carlson
- Replies: 106
- Views: 38044
Re: Rich Author, Poor Readers - Ben Carlson
I've said it before on BH but it bears repeating... my friend was spooked by people like this and pulled everything out of the market after the great recession. He never got back in until circa 2017 for a short time then pulled it all out again and is out until this day. To this very day he sends me articles and videos about why Rome is burning. The amount of money he's lost is staggering. He still maintains his position is correct and I'll be sorry when the market crashes. In his defense his fear of Rome burning has caused him to put 100% of his life savings into Bitcoin which so far has made him money. Whether that continues no one knows. A person very close to me pulled all their money at the low of 2008. they did not get back in until ...
- Thu Dec 21, 2023 7:17 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Rich Author, Poor Readers - Ben Carlson
- Replies: 106
- Views: 38044
Re: Rich Author, Poor Readers - Ben Carlson
I've said it before on BH but it bears repeating... my friend was spooked by people like this and pulled everything out of the market after the great recession. He never got back in until circa 2017 for a short time then pulled it all out again and is out until this day. To this very day he sends me articles and videos about why Rome is burning. The amount of money he's lost is staggering. He still maintains his position is correct and I'll be sorry when the market crashes. In his defense his fear of Rome burning has caused him to put 100% of his life savings into Bitcoin which so far has made him money. Whether that continues no one knows. A person very close to me pulled all their money at the low of 2008. they did not get back in until ...
- Tue Dec 19, 2023 9:56 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Financial news scare] Big Crash?
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2811
Re: Big Crash?
Harry Dent wrote a book in 2011 calling for the Big Crash and to be out of equities by 2012. blink....blink.
He's a doom merchant. run away.
He's a doom merchant. run away.
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 6:17 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Close friend receiving large sum of money
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3440
Re: Close friend receiving large sum of money
Problem is, if they are mid-40s and own the business for 10+ years, then it is possible they will 1) have the majority of wealth outside retirement plans, 2) have wealth at a level where estate tax planning is indicated, 3) face liability issues that favor some form of asset protection planning (without the benefit of having most wealth in retirement plans), 4) may face a 37%+ marginal tax rate for the rest of their lives, and 5) may face time constraints running the business that hamper them becoming fully educated in all of these issues. Popular level books from BH are not well suited to this kind of situation. For example, people in the highest tax bracket with potential liability issues are exactly the kind of people that insurance pro...
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 5:00 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Close friend receiving large sum of money
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3440
Re: Close friend receiving large sum of money
Background : Our best friends own a business. He worked for this small business for 20 years before buying it. The reason he believes it was sold is because they have a 5 year contract that was up this year and the old owner did not believe they'd retain it and thus sold it. My friend was able to get the contract extended for another 5 years. I guess I'm the only person who has no idea what you're trying to say here. Same boat. i interpret this as the business has one major client, who renews their service contract in 5 year terms. the former owner wanted to sell in part due to the risk they stop renewing, and the new owners are happy the renewal came through and they can feel secure for the next few years. now, if i am right about the bus...
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 2:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Close friend receiving large sum of money
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3440
Re: Close friend receiving large sum of money
this is a dangerous time for them. they have new money and want to do the right thing with it. but to everybody they talk to, they are a walking target. people will want to tie up that money and milk it for commissions before your friends even get used to having it. maybe even before the anticipated sum has fully arrived. they would be best served to put it away in their existing retirement accounts and a boring brokerage account, and leave it like that for years before thinking about if or when to bring in a third party. on another note, i have been in the shoes of having a business look like things were finally in the clear, and you forecast out profits in the coming years. but things happen and they do not come. it is VERY important the...
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 1:12 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Close friend receiving large sum of money
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3440
Re: Close friend receiving large sum of money
Advise them to go to the meeting. Listen. Write down everything. Do NOTHING. Sign NOTHING. The only commitment they should make is to have a phone call in 3 weeks. Then they can think about all this, get translation from you, perhaps and understand where these sly sales droids are trying to guide them. Often, looking at what was said in a meeting tells the whole story. Do they push insurance? Do they talk about "exclusive investments" (often of which they use illiquid funds you can never get out of)? Do they promise big numbers over the market? I sense these friends want to understand how to set up reasonable retirement accounts for themselves and how to set up business payments to them and into those retirement accounts. Not wan...
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 1:08 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Close friend receiving large sum of money
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3440
Re: Close friend receiving large sum of money
They already offer 401k plans to the employees, this is all in regards to profits. They understand the tax man is coming, and they understand these advisors are probably going to try and offer them tax savings outside of traditional tax deferrment programs such as 401k's, IRA's etc.PaddyMac wrote: ↑Thu Dec 14, 2023 12:52 pm If they have employees, that may complicate matters as the owners may not be able to have a retirement fund and not offer it to their employees as well. We have our Individual 401k at Vanguard, but we are a general partnership (husband/wife) with no employees. But I think Vanguard does offer small business 401k plans as well.
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 12:48 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Close friend receiving large sum of money
- Replies: 24
- Views: 3440
Close friend receiving large sum of money
Background : Our best friends own a business. He worked for this small business for 20 years before buying it. The reason he believes it was sold is because they have a 5 year contract that was up this year and the old owner did not believe they'd retain it and thus sold it. My friend was able to get the contract extended for another 5 years. Mid 40's with very little saved for retirement. They recently sat down with another close personal friend who runs a CPA firm and ran the numbers, based on profitability, after finishing paying the loan for the business off, increasing pay for all workers, adding bonuses the business will net around $500,000 in profitability they can begin to pay themselves for at least the next 5 years if all things a...
- Wed Dec 13, 2023 11:01 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: My Case Against Factor Investing
- Replies: 93
- Views: 19395
Re: My Case Against Factor Investing
I began factor investing unbeknownst to me back in 2018. we switched to a low cost 401k we filled out a questionaire it would select the investment for us if we wanted. thats what I picked. I had a high risk tolerance and it offered me a few options and I happened to choose the "paul merriman portfolio" which was a 5 fund portfolio of 4 VG funds, US stocks, exUS stocks, US bonds, exus bonds, and DFA SCV. I remember the description even. before covid I wanted to add it to my IRA's and it made sense to use Avantis. when I switched jobs in 2021, i went full avantis. TO DATE....its been a wash. 2018/2019 were not good SCV years but avantis has juiced returned a bit more the past 3 to get me to even. My case against it, is that it like...
- Tue Dec 12, 2023 3:11 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Ohtani Contract
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1711
Re: Ohtani Contract
I wonder if it has to do with taxes in California.
They estimate he makes gobs of money in sponsorship deals too. I'm pretty sure at some point it doesn't really even matter to someone with that much cash.
They estimate he makes gobs of money in sponsorship deals too. I'm pretty sure at some point it doesn't really even matter to someone with that much cash.
- Tue Dec 12, 2023 8:27 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P Index Too Heavily Weighted Toward High Tech?
- Replies: 118
- Views: 14827
Re: S&P Index Too Heavily Weighted Toward High Tech?
every other sector relies very heavily on the tech sector. most of the these giant tech companies have their fingers in all of these other sectors.
TLDR - don't worry about it
TLDR - don't worry about it
- Wed Nov 22, 2023 11:30 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How to help coworkers with retirement planning?
- Replies: 66
- Views: 7803
Re: How to help coworkers with retirement planning?
I am one of the older people in my department. a few years ago, one of the younger mid 20's coworkers asked me if I attended the 401k meeting and I said I did not. and she said, the problem she's having is understanding ANYTHING that was said. She was like it was like a foreign language. This person is one of the sharpest people in our department. So that was a bit eye opening. Her father thinks the stock market is a sham, you should only invest in yourself and in entrepreneurial businesses and real estate. and he's quite frankly done that but she's like thats not for me. SO I helped explain what a 401k is. and why she should put as much money as she possibly can into it especially at a young age. I shared with her the If you can pdf. and s...
- Wed Nov 22, 2023 9:35 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is the S & P 500 Broken? - article
- Replies: 68
- Views: 10830
Re: Is the S & P 500 Broken? - article
when it comes to this from an investor perspective, my question always is...then what are we, as investors, to do? YTD the rest of teh sp500 is up 5%. midcaps are up 6%. small caps 5%. EXUS is up 9%. you start picking all of this apart? value vs growth, etc etc. my buddy asked me about a portfolio drawn up by an inlaw in the business. he said this will help me because market weight lends too much these top stocks that represent (at the time) 25% of the market. But almost ever other fund listed also had smatterings of FAANG in their portfolio. so much so that the 25% was only like 22%. I don't know what happened from that conversation but I was like, advisors can't avoid these top stocks. for a long while the returns have required them.
- Sun Nov 19, 2023 8:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Fools stock advisor?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 2549
Re: Fools stock advisor?
I believe they had mutual funds and they stunk so they stopped...i think.
read the fine print on the 500+%. you'll be surprised and what that took.
read the fine print on the 500+%. you'll be surprised and what that took.
- Tue Nov 14, 2023 2:37 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Putting Active Management to the Test
- Replies: 143
- Views: 27034
Re: Putting Active Management to the Test
Just looking quickly at the equity funds and their morningstar benchmarks, only 6 of the 17 outperformed their benchmarks.
2 of the 6 were basically dead even, 1 has been closed to new investors for some time and the dodge and cox "international" fund has held an average allocation of 8% US stocks each year the past 10 years.
Seems better than a SPIVA report I guess but not something I'd hang my hat on.
- Fri Nov 10, 2023 5:32 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 8% SWR!
- Replies: 112
- Views: 13064
Re: 8% SWR!
neighbors across the street retired and had to go back to work because they thought they had enough due to Dave's numbers. they worked longer becuase the 12% wasn't a reality and they began working again at like 77 (one of them) because they had to stop withdrawing how much they were withdrawing. And they realized this ONLY because they consulted a tax person who suggested they talk to an advisor who was like dear lord why are you doing this. answer? Dave. They bought their investments through a ramsey approved broker, not planner. and jsut did whatever. I think 8% is crazy and its dangerous. you have to plan to live longer than you will and you have to assume the worst. We assume risk all the time, I don't htink you have to find the 100% s...
- Thu Oct 26, 2023 10:23 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: 21 years old. Received $100k. What do i do with it? How do i start investing?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3101
Re: 21 years old. Received $100k. What do i do with it? How do i start investing?
I would take $6500 of it and open a roth IRA and invest it. The rest I would place in a brokerage and invest it as well. Simple, 1 or 2 fund total market index portfolio. and then I would use proceeds of the taxable brokerage to fund my Roth IRA each year.
If you seek the advice of an advisor.....DO NOT BUY ANY TYPE OF CASH VALUE LIFE INSURANCE WITH THIS MONEY.
If you seek the advice of an advisor.....DO NOT BUY ANY TYPE OF CASH VALUE LIFE INSURANCE WITH THIS MONEY.
- Thu Oct 26, 2023 10:19 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: WSJ: Your 'Set It and Forget It' 401(k) Made You Rich. No More.
- Replies: 121
- Views: 23201
Re: WSJ: Your 'Set It and Forget It' 401(k) Made You Rich. No More.
ya'll are smarter than me, but the gist of the article to me is "things are bad, probably going to get worse, good times are over" and what do you do about it? "expect less and rebalance more"
which to me isn't awful advice but I also am just like, there are people who will read this and go, well the 401k is not the place for me, i better do something else. The alternative for most people is usually worse!
which to me isn't awful advice but I also am just like, there are people who will read this and go, well the 401k is not the place for me, i better do something else. The alternative for most people is usually worse!
- Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:50 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: SPIVA Scorecards & Other Relevant Statistical Data
- Replies: 1
- Views: 458
Re: SPIVA Scorecards & Other Relevant Statistical Data
spglobal creates indexes. there are a finite number of these indexes. mutual funds in their prospectus identify their benchmark. SPIVA looks at all mutual funds and matches them the benchmarks they have available. spiva does not have indexes for a vast selection of mutual funds (fund of funds, target date funds, leveraged funds, etc). its takes the funds that match and reduces them further based on share class (institutional, investor, A share, R share, etc.) and then runs their tests.
often we see people go, there are 10,000 mutual funds, why does spiva only look at 2000....well that's the reason why. its all spelled out in their documentation.
often we see people go, there are 10,000 mutual funds, why does spiva only look at 2000....well that's the reason why. its all spelled out in their documentation.
- Tue Oct 24, 2023 10:44 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is There Any Difference Between Passive and Active Investing?
- Replies: 150
- Views: 9276
Re: Active Index Idea
I think the issue here is that nobody understands what you are even trying to figure out. parse out active products that aren't active to create some passive benchmark? Reg FD has created an environment where its very easy to find outperformers because there are so few and study them. there are numerous studies that try and find the secret sauce and determine there is none. The best indicator that a fund will out perform its benchmark is cost.
- Mon Oct 23, 2023 2:55 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is There Any Difference Between Passive and Active Investing?
- Replies: 150
- Views: 9276
Re: Is There Any Difference Between Passive and Active Investing?
SPIVA data has been questioned and tested since its existence. Active portfolio management and Active fund families still rule the roost here, there isn't some vast conspiracy where Morningstar and other financial outlets are "big indexing". most financial houses and publications thrive in a world of active management.
- Mon Oct 23, 2023 2:40 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is There Any Difference Between Passive and Active Investing?
- Replies: 150
- Views: 9276
Re: Is There Any Difference Between Passive and Active Investing?
There is and there isn't. in reference strictly to equities
There is actively managing an actively managed fund/etf portfolio (active funds).
There is actively managing a passively managed fund/etf portfolio (index funds).
There is passively managing a passively managed fund/etf portfolio. (the actual markets return IMO....which is VTWAX/VT or equivalent allocations)
I believe most people do the first 2. thus its not really much of a difference at all potentially outside of costs. my thing is there are hundreds of index choices. US, exUS, sectors, industries, styleboxes, etc etc etc. I had a buddy tell me he's an index investor. He invests in SCHD and VGT...thats it. hardly the "index" investor you'd suspect.
There is actively managing an actively managed fund/etf portfolio (active funds).
There is actively managing a passively managed fund/etf portfolio (index funds).
There is passively managing a passively managed fund/etf portfolio. (the actual markets return IMO....which is VTWAX/VT or equivalent allocations)
I believe most people do the first 2. thus its not really much of a difference at all potentially outside of costs. my thing is there are hundreds of index choices. US, exUS, sectors, industries, styleboxes, etc etc etc. I had a buddy tell me he's an index investor. He invests in SCHD and VGT...thats it. hardly the "index" investor you'd suspect.
- Thu Oct 19, 2023 1:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
- Replies: 76
- Views: 8605
Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
for me its simply compounding costs. I interpreted the OP's question as eliminating costs entirely: a no-cost index vs. no-cost equity selection, not necessarily by professionals, but by "people" in general. Some responses seem to be assuming the case of a fund manager or other entity charging fees for equity selection and trading. alright well, if all costs are eliminated the next reason why I believe few people beat the market long term is because they are not as smart as they think they are and more emotional about their investments than they think they are. I also feel its not an even playing field for DIY investors. Even in the world of Reg FD, DIY investors are competing against 300k bloomberg terminals and millions of fact...
- Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
- Replies: 76
- Views: 8605
Re: how do you explain theoretically that very few people beat the market long term?
for me its simply compounding costs.
- Fri Oct 13, 2023 2:21 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Expense Ratios
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1314
Re: Expense Ratios
that is on of my favorite threads of all time. i have it bookmarked.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Fri Oct 13, 2023 1:05 pm Go look at one of my favorite posts. It's called: Why the Disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds? Notice the wrong tense used there (present, not past)
guy said he was allocating 30% of his portfolio to ARKK 3 weeks after the top. if he did he is *check notes* still down 36% on that investment today or -40% difference than VTI.
- Fri Oct 13, 2023 1:33 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Expense Ratios
- Replies: 10
- Views: 1314
Re: Expense Ratios
small cap growth is a really crappy area to try and gain alpha IMO. the stocks in that area of the stylebox are a few steps away from penny stocks. the problem here is profitability.
So IMO micro growth is basically gambling.
If you look at these charts, you see they rise and fall. at some points in time, they show out performance, in others, its equal with the sp500. so its basically the luck of the draw in where you land if you invest in this. since inception a lump sum equaled the sp500 performance 24 years later in 2020! for all that risk and cost whats the point! if you put money in each year for 24 years you'd have more in the sp500!
So IMO micro growth is basically gambling.
If you look at these charts, you see they rise and fall. at some points in time, they show out performance, in others, its equal with the sp500. so its basically the luck of the draw in where you land if you invest in this. since inception a lump sum equaled the sp500 performance 24 years later in 2020! for all that risk and cost whats the point! if you put money in each year for 24 years you'd have more in the sp500!
- Thu Oct 12, 2023 10:12 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: TD Ameritrade to Schwab
- Replies: 161
- Views: 13605
Re: TD Ameritrade to Schwab transition - how was it for you?
ours moved over early september. it went very easy but I don't like schwab's interface at all. Its probably ok because i log in less now but I still prefer TDA's overall look.
I also have accounts at fidelity and I feel the same way about their stuff too.
I also have accounts at fidelity and I feel the same way about their stuff too.
- Fri Sep 22, 2023 9:04 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Aren't you an above-average investor?
- Replies: 169
- Views: 17527
Re: Aren't you an above-average investor?
I don't like the term "average". its the middle ground. 50%. It gets thrown around a lot. I believe I do have a above average understanding of the markets and portfolio management. but after costs, index funds do more than provide and "average" return. in any single given year, an index fund is going to be in the 2nd quartile of returns almost 9 out of 10 years. that is above average returns. and every year you add on top of that cumulatively will increase its trek up the rankings. VFINX: 1 yr - top 35% 3 Yr - top 32% 5 yr - top 24% 10 yr - top 14% would you call that average? I call that so much farther above "average" its incredible. So do I think that I am smart enough or above average enough to beat sitting...
- Wed Sep 20, 2023 10:10 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Jack Bogle personal portfolio
- Replies: 37
- Views: 5509
Re: Jack Bogle personal portfolio
I found this paragraph in an InvestmentNews article about junior- “Mr. Bogle isn’t likely to become a champion of low costs. His new no-load mutual fund, the Bogle Small Cap Growth Fund, comes with an annual expense ratio of 1.35%, compared to 1.24% for the average similarly managed fund. In addition, Mr. Bogle is a quant-based active manager while his father espouses index funds.” No opinion on my part it’s just curious I don't think this BOGLX is in the same form it used to be. In fact this bloomberg site says it was liquidated (source: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BOGLX:US#xj4y7vzkg) It was called Bogle Small Cap Growth Fund, but when you search that you now get BOGLX listed as SGI Small Cap Core Fund Class I Shares and it's BOGIX, n...
- Fri Sep 08, 2023 11:37 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Inheritance & How It Impacted Your Money Life
- Replies: 216
- Views: 25544
Re: Inheritance & How It Impacted Your Money Life
I'm in my mid 40's. when we were in our late 30's, my wifes parents sat us down (she has a married sister) and explained their wishes. they were in their mid 60's and basically laid out what the the plan was. there were 2 trust for each and at the date of our meeting, if one died it would be distributed to the children and that if that changed they would let us know. But they said that over the previous decades plus, they were observant of our money attitudes and appreciated what appeared to be wise money management and began gifting us each what they were able to out of each trust without needing to file 709's. There were no figures mentioned but FIL was a president of a employee owned company that was purchased by another company for a ve...
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 6:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Investing in Managed Vanguard funds?
- Replies: 54
- Views: 6375
Re: Investing in Managed Vanguard funds?
if I didn't specifically ask to juice returns a bit through an interview or questionaire, i'd be slightly inclined to let the advisor know that if he were to suggest actively managed funds in the future, i'll likely find another service. whether true or not. VG has always had active products but it just seems ridiculous.
For starters the idea that "your risk tolerance allows you to invest in these active funds" is so nonsensical to me.
For starters the idea that "your risk tolerance allows you to invest in these active funds" is so nonsensical to me.
- Thu Aug 17, 2023 7:09 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Help Me Understand Something About Trading Versus Indexing
- Replies: 49
- Views: 4566
Re: Help Me Understand Something About Trading Versus Indexing
I have had friends like this and even some newcomers to the party in the recent years for obvious reasons. a friend of mine was on the police force and during the meme craze he came to me because he knew investing interests me and was telling me how they were making gobs of money. up 100s of percents. could not understand why i didn't do it. He talked his wife into refinancing an almost paid off rental property so he had more cash to invest. Another cop friend unbenknownst to the other, told me a a number of months later that these cops were losing their butts on these trades. a few months later the other friends wife asked if "this sounded right" because naturally he's lying his rear off to his wife. Thats the trick. The big chan...
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 3:55 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Help reacting to article saying] Market massively overvalued and will crash ?
- Replies: 39
- Views: 2827
Re: Market massively overvalued and will crash ?
there are people that hang onto every word Michael Burry and Jeremy Grantham say. but they are wrong 99% of the time. So to answer your question. No.sjar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 3:47 pmI think this may be his opinion and he gets paid to share his opinion.WhitePuma wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 3:40 pmIf this guy knew the market direction, why would he share it with the world?sjar wrote: ↑Wed Aug 16, 2023 3:38 pm https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... des-2023-8
Where should one invest if stocks are overvalued and real estate is overvalued ? All in bonds or keep cash ?
Ultimately though, wouldn’t the ones with the best track records in making such predictions be allowed to share and the worst ones be out ?