Search found 7637 matches

by Fallible
Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 8946

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

Definition of "Noise" from Investopedia:
In a broad analytical context, noise refers to information or activity that confuses or misrepresents genuine underlying trends.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/noise.asp
by Fallible
Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emotional Side of Investing
Replies: 28
Views: 2608

Re: The Emotional Side of Investing

Emotional investing hurts investment returns over the long run. This is why it is important to invest according to an investment policy statement written and refined when the investor is calm and rational. For more on this topic of emotion and investing, I highly recommend reading Your Money and Yo...
by Fallible
Thu Apr 08, 2021 7:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?
Replies: 112
Views: 6991

Re: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?

I think most people are bad at assessing risk. Actually, it's not just me that thinks this. Research in this area has shown this. in bull markets they determine their risk tolerance is high, but then in bear markets than determine their risk tolerance is low. They have never really bought and held ...
by Fallible
Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Update: Teaching Financial Literacy article in NYTimes
Replies: 1
Views: 462

Re: Update: Teaching Financial Literacy article in NYTimes

An update to teaching financial literacy courses was published in early April 2021: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/02/your-money/financial-literacy-courses.html The article has a number of links to available resources with some useful links for talking to your children about finances. I was surpri...
by Fallible
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "John C. Bogle: Renaissance Money Manager for the People and More"
Replies: 6
Views: 772

Re: "John C. Bogle: Renaissance Money Manager for the People and More"

Of all the tributes to Jack, this is one I remember especially well because it covers the many extraordinary aspects of his personality and character. I like the references to his book, Enough: True Measures of Money, Business and Life , which "ranged far beyond index funds and shareholders.&qu...
by Fallible
Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What Are You Doing Given Record Stock Market Highs and What Is Your Situation?
Replies: 120
Views: 12588

Re: What Are You Doing Given Record Stock Market Highs and What Is Your Situation?

... I'm tempted to take advantage of this and transition more into cash, but then I think I have 5 more years before retiring and some of my money I won't touch for 25 years so the market may recover if it crashes again. Yes, the stock market may recover if it crashes again, but when? How much is &...
by Fallible
Wed Mar 31, 2021 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can my father see the light?
Replies: 53
Views: 6183

Re: How can my father see the light?

... So aside from how all this looks; how do you get someone to see the light? He's not a computer guy and is likely never going to checkout the bogleheads wiki. Are there extremely simple videos showcasing the benefits of a low fee passive total market approach, as well as what happens in a high f...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 27, 2021 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 68yo, considering leaving Vanguard
Replies: 27
Views: 4005

Re: 68yo, considering leaving Vanguard

My wife and all look to have all the money we need for retirement. ($1,000,000 at VG) We talked to the personal advisor department and the bottom line was, “if you don’t want a 50/50 stock bond portfolio the advisor group is not for you”! Really? 50/50 is all VG believes in? (Until 80yo) So, how do...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 20, 2021 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ARE FINANCIAL markets in a bubble? - Jonathan Clements
Replies: 13
Views: 1896

Re: ARE FINANCIAL markets in a bubble? - Jonathan Clements

I'm reading the Bernstein book now and it's good to see Clements's thoughts, especially the last graph, last sentence :happy : What about bitcoin? Like Bernstein, I think it’s a bubble and I’m staying far away. The good news: Even if I’m wrong, it doesn’t much matter. I don’t need to own cryptocurre...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 20, 2021 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?
Replies: 224
Views: 17948

Re: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?

Everybody everywhere is talking about a bubble. But why can't we have another 20 years of bull market? Starting about 20 years ago, there was 9/11, the 2000-02 dot.com crash, the 2008 global financial crisis, the March 2020 crash, and lots of near crashes and volatility along the way, all because o...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 20, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?
Replies: 224
Views: 17948

Re: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?

Everybody everywhere is talking about a bubble. But why can't we have another 20 years of bull market? Starting about 20 years ago, there was 9/11, the 2000-02 dot.com crash, the 2008 global financial crisis, the March 2020 crash, and lots of near crashes and volatility along the way, all because o...
by Fallible
Thu Mar 18, 2021 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turning Up the Risk While Young
Replies: 23
Views: 1159

Re: Turning Up the Risk While Young

... I realized I would like to add at least one other asset class and one other factor so I have some exposure to factors other than simple market beta. I have just invested 2.5% of my portfolio in a roughly equal split of small cap index funds (even split between US and ex-US) and Long Term Treasu...
by Fallible
Wed Mar 17, 2021 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Psychology of Money" -- a Gem
Replies: 32
Views: 5954

Re: "The Psychology of Money" -- a Gem

"Life isn't any fun without a sense of enough."

A great "gem" echoing sentiments in Jack Bogle's great book, Enough.

Thanks, Taylor, for posting all of these "gems."
by Fallible
Mon Mar 15, 2021 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Announcing the FOMO fund...
Replies: 34
Views: 3726

Re: Announcing the FOMO fund...

Just when you thought that every possible type of ETF had been conceived and launched, here comes the FOMO ETF. ... And next up, the bitcoin ETF? From the article, quoting veteran ETF watcher Todd Rosenbluth of CFRA Research: “Anything that can be put into an ETF wrapper will be put into an ETF wra...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm a newbie, follow BH investing, but feel left out during stock conversations
Replies: 50
Views: 4554

Re: I'm a newbie, follow BH investing, but feel left out during stock conversations

Family member: "I'm so glad I own Tesla and Apple! They've done great!" ms.dee: "Ho Hum. Yeah, I own them too." Family member: "I wish I didn't own GE and AIG. They've done terrible for me." ms. dee: "Yeah, they make up such a small part of my overall (indexed) po...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 13, 2021 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'm a newbie, follow BH investing, but feel left out during stock conversations
Replies: 50
Views: 4554

Re: I'm a newbie, follow BH investing, but feel left out during stock conversations

... At a recent family vacation for 2 weeks (we stayed home :)), morning topics were only around individual stocks, what went up/down, how much they made/lost. I was a silent observer. Being the youngest in the family, I get doubts if I'm missing something when I hear those conversations. I know th...
by Fallible
Tue Mar 09, 2021 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5075
Views: 1323641

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Finished "Bad Blood" by John Carreyrou today half way through "The Burial Hour" by Jeffrey Deaver What did you think of Bad Blood? would you recommend it? Yes, fascinating detail. I was familiar with the broad scope of the fraud but the story and detail are gripping. "Gripp...
by Fallible
Tue Mar 09, 2021 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

Swedroe quote: These are very personal decisions, with no right answers. However, the fewer items in the needs column, the lower the need to take risk. Conversely, the more items in the needs column, the more risk one will have to take to meet those needs. The above is simply wrong. The more in the...
by Fallible
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast transcripts are becoming available
Replies: 36
Views: 5764

Re: "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast transcripts are becoming available

I've enjoyed the podcasts, but have always preferred transcripts over audio. My thanks to Barry Barnitz and all who have worked hard to provide these transcripts. The transcription process, like investing, may seem simple, but it is not easy.
by Fallible
Tue Mar 09, 2021 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

Larry Swedroe on need to take risk was brought up earlier in this thread. Here is the quote attributed to Swedroe. The need to take risk is determined by the rate of return required to achieve financial objectives. The greater the rate of return needed to achieve one's financial objective, the more...
by Fallible
Mon Mar 08, 2021 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

Capacity and tolerance for risk are so important and so close to Larry Swedroe's guide to determine "ability" and "willingness" (risk tolerance) to take risk that I think the third and even fourth parts of his guide should be brought up here: "need" (vs. desire), and co...
by Fallible
Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

When considering investment risk we want to think in terms of both risk capacity and risk tolerance, but risk capacity is definitely the more important of the two in assessing your investment risk profile. Briefly your risk capacity consists of objective measures of your risk profile such as do you...
by Fallible
Sun Mar 07, 2021 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

When considering investment risk we want to think in terms of both risk capacity and risk tolerance, but risk capacity is definitely the more important of the two in assessing your investment risk profile. Briefly your risk capacity consists of objective measures of your risk profile such as do you...
by Fallible
Sun Mar 07, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

When considering investment risk we want to think in terms of both risk capacity and risk tolerance, but risk capacity is definitely the more important of the two in assessing your investment risk profile. Briefly your risk capacity consists of objective measures of your risk profile such as do you...
by Fallible
Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

When considering investment risk we want to think in terms of both risk capacity and risk tolerance, but risk capacity is definitely the more important of the two in assessing your investment risk profile. Briefly your risk capacity consists of objective measures of your risk profile such as do you...
by Fallible
Thu Mar 04, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk tolerance
Replies: 59
Views: 4419

Re: Risk tolerance

A deeply embedded flaw inherent in most "Risk Tolerance" surveys is they tell you little about each person's actual ability to withstand volatility + everything about what the market has done over the past 6 months. Strong markets lead to higher (believed) risk tolerance + vv https://twit...
by Fallible
Thu Mar 04, 2021 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Adjustions Based On Comfort Level At Market Highs and Lows
Replies: 27
Views: 2649

Re: Asset Allocation Adjustions Based On Comfort Level At Market Highs and Lows

... I am trying to figure out if there is a way to actually help people in choosing an asset allocation. People come to this forum all the time with "I dunno" or "This is my AA because I took this survey" or they just pick something someone else tells them to do. Those are the p...
by Fallible
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5075
Views: 1323641

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

The confidence game by Maria Konnikova. The author is one of the people interviewed in the movie Made you look . I was impressed by her take on the events described in the film, so I'm now reading her book on the psychology of the con - how and why grifters are able to take advantage of us. I say &...
by Fallible
Wed Mar 03, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation Adjustions Based On Comfort Level At Market Highs and Lows
Replies: 27
Views: 2649

Re: Asset Allocation Adjustions Based On Comfort Level At Market Highs and Lows

... I am trying to figure out if there is a way to actually help people in choosing an asset allocation. People come to this forum all the time with "I dunno" or "This is my AA because I took this survey" or they just pick something someone else tells them to do. Those are the p...
by Fallible
Mon Mar 01, 2021 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any finance professional here?
Replies: 35
Views: 3534

Re: Any finance professional here?

Even being a finance professional, their guess is about as worthless as asking a 5-year old for the next hot sector :) I'd take the 5-year old, a dart thrower, or a finger pointing monkey over a financial "pro" any day. At least I know the former three would not be acting like the animals...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio and Taylor Larimore in Barron's...
Replies: 13
Views: 1924

Re: Three Fund Portfolio and Taylor Larimore in Barron's...

Thanks to Taylor Larimore for the simplicity of the three fund portfolio. The article, and the introduction of Ms. Greene's comments about tilting, remind me of a chef that just can't leave well enough alone. Consider the BLT sandwich, it's perfect, as is. Three ingredients - simple. Ms. Greene is ...
by Fallible
Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Three Fund Portfolio and Taylor Larimore in Barron's...
Replies: 13
Views: 1924

Re: Three Fund Portfolio and Taylor Larimore in Barron's...

Daisey Maxey writes an article in Barron's in their retirement section today and quotes Taylor.... Three-Fund Portfolios Can Cut Risk, Taxes, and Costs for Investors. Here’s How to Build One. https://www.barrons.com/articles/three-fund-portfolios-can-cut-risk-taxes-and-costs-for-investors-heres-how...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 25, 2021 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Beating myself up over this
Replies: 25
Views: 3803

Re: Beating myself up over this

... Last year I had gradually invested the bond portion of my 3-fund retirement portfolio into re-opening stocks....airlines, restaurants, oil, casinos. ... Sold them all a few weeks back in early February. Don’t know why, no market making news or big headlines one way or the other. Just seemed lik...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well
Replies: 105
Views: 14290

Re: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well

... Buffett, Graham, and Klarman aren't luck, are they? No one has provided any argument in this thread as to what would constitute for them the line between luck and a proven track record.... All three have written about the role of luck in their investing successes. Of course, luck always plays s...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"
Replies: 34
Views: 3820

Re: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"

sounds like nearly every one of the 34 years I've been investing (and probably all the fear-and-greed market years before). As you know, you are describing short-term thinking when, as a Boglehead, you are in it for the long term. Yes, and long term indexing is key. For our Boglehead with $1,000 to...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"
Replies: 34
Views: 3820

Re: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"

... The great thing about the three fund portfolio and the Bogleheads method is that you don't have to think or make decisions. You just invest and remain in balance. The financial news and pontificating by the "experts" and some of the recent new member know it alls on this forum don't m...
by Fallible
Thu Feb 25, 2021 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well
Replies: 105
Views: 14290

Re: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well

eshkidd wrote: Wed Feb 24, 2021 10:32 pm ...
Buffett, Graham, and Klarman aren't luck, are they? No one has provided any argument in this thread as to what would constitute for them the line between luck and a proven track record....
All three have written about the role of luck in their investing successes.
by Fallible
Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well
Replies: 105
Views: 14290

Re: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well

Whenever anyone reveals that they have stock picking and market timing ability it always remind me of those surveys where high percentages of drivers claim to be above average. ... Nate Silver likely would refer to it as over confidence, which is considered among the top behavioral pitfalls in inve...
by Fallible
Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"
Replies: 34
Views: 3820

Re: Staying the course means buying your AA despite the "conversation in the marketplace"

<r><QUOTE author="SantaClaraSurfer" post_id="5839923" time="1614186690" user_id="145536"><s>[quote=SantaClaraSurfer post_id=5839923 time=1614186690 user_id=145536]</s> In my experience, among the hardest to execute components of Boglehead investing is purchasing your AA every month, even when you <I...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DCA: "It's dumb but maybe entirely rational"
Replies: 19
Views: 2080

Re: DCA: "It's dumb but maybe entirely rational"

Better to get invested, one way or another. If DCA is necessary, so be it. Dealing with (and overcoming) emotional quirks is a big part of investing success. Regards, Agree. DCA can at least get some some new and anxious investors into the market. That's not "dumb" and I hope they aren't ...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best decision(s) in your financial life
Replies: 167
Views: 13372

Re: Best decision(s) in your financial life

What do you think is the best decision(s) you have made in your financial life? and why, if you wish to share (Did the decision make your financial life more abundant, easier, more productive, less time consuming etc?) ... Just one decision made my financial life "more abundant, easier, more p...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 23, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well
Replies: 105
Views: 14290

Re: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well

"It is hard to tell how many investors beat the stock market in the long run, because the data is very noisy, but we know that most cannot relative to their level of risk, since trading produces no net excess return but entails transaction costs, so unless you have inside information, you are ...
by Fallible
Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tweaking/Perfecting IPS vs “Staying the Course”
Replies: 28
Views: 2169

Re: Tweaking/Perfecting IPS vs “Staying the Course”

... The very first section of the IPS I drafted in 2018 is as follows: "Investment Philosophy: Maintain a well-diversified portfolio, with risk associated with working time available until retirement, to allow ample time for recovery from any market downturns. Generally risk will be based on r...
by Fallible
Mon Feb 22, 2021 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well
Replies: 105
Views: 14290

Re: Nate Silver sums up trying to beat the market very well

What if you're a software tech employee with keen insights into trends, future tech, and vaporware? Everyone thinks their insights are keen... Which is very much where Silver's quotes via the OP come in: "self-knowledge," the human element, the art in art and science that are needed to di...
by Fallible
Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation & Inexperience During Bear Markets
Replies: 72
Views: 3234

Re: Asset Allocation & Inexperience During Bear Markets

I've been struggling to feel confident in my asset allocation between stocks and bonds. Some days I think 90/10 is a good idea while others days 80/20 or 70/30 seems more reasonable, then the next day I don't know why I have any bonds at all. In the second edition of Bogleheads Guide to Investing i...
by Fallible
Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tweaking/Perfecting IPS vs “Staying the Course”
Replies: 28
Views: 2169

Re: Tweaking/Perfecting IPS vs “Staying the Course”

What kind of things are you learning that would make you want to change IPS? Two things specifically lately: 1) I’ve been examining my US vs ex-US allocation. In 2018 I decided on 2/3 US and 1/3 ex-US (can’t remember exactly why at this point, other than Jack Bogle himself recommended weight toward...
by Fallible
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Boglehead philosophy - 3 fund portfolio ever become obsolete?
Replies: 51
Views: 4477

Re: Will Boglehead philosophy - 3 fund portfolio ever become obsolete?

What do you mean by obsolete? The idea of only three funds? The idea of simplicity? Of low-cost index funds only? Of one or all of the funds somehow failing?
by Fallible
Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% lessons reconfirm Boglehead principles
Replies: 28
Views: 4933

Re: 5% lessons reconfirm Boglehead principles

... I'm still learning. And staying the course. But the lessons I'm learning from my 5% account only reconfirm what I already thought about my "95% account." I've often wondered what happens with the 5% "play" money often recommended here - and now we know, or at least we have y...
by Fallible
Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 31yo contemplating early retirement
Replies: 142
Views: 12498

Re: 31yo contemplating early retirement

sjl333 wrote: Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:10 pm ...
Anyhow we shall see how things turn out, either I'm a genius or a complete dumbass. ...
Either you are lucky or unlucky, that's all.
by Fallible
Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 31yo contemplating early retirement
Replies: 142
Views: 12498

Re: 31yo contemplating early retirement

Not to advocate OP, but these don't really apply for short-term stock pickers. Think of it like those who jumped on GME for 2 weeks and got out, never to trade GME again. GFC doesn't matter in that case. Ha! It applies, just ask all of the bagholders sitting on GME at $100, 200, 300+/share thinking...