Search found 273 matches

by RomeoMustDie
Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter
Replies: 112
Views: 8727

Re: Chase performance all you want.. it doesn't need to matter

Market cap weighted indexes are performance chasing too if you think about it.

Don't say it too loud around here though.
by RomeoMustDie
Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTWAX=VT or VTSAX?
Replies: 11
Views: 2491

Re: VTWAX=VT or VTSAX?

There is no boglehead argument for VTSAX it's just recency bias. A real head scratcher for me.
by RomeoMustDie
Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering switching to unhedged international bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2001

Re: Considering switching to unhedged international bonds

cedar7 wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:40 pm
RomeoMustDie wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:54 am Of course, why would I expose myself to US interest rate and inflation risk?
Sounds like we're in agreement. Would you mind sharing which fund you invest in? Thanks!
I hold IHY. I'm looking for higher risk bonds. I also know vanguard has international bond ETF's.
by RomeoMustDie
Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips on investing play money
Replies: 37
Views: 2215

Re: Tips on investing play money

ruralavalon wrote: Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:41 am If you want to play consider scuba diving, fishing, hunting, golf, tennis, sky diving, etc.
Huge money sink hobbies.
by RomeoMustDie
Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Considering switching to unhedged international bonds
Replies: 26
Views: 2001

Re: Considering switching to unhedged international bonds

Of course, why would I expose myself to US interest rate and inflation risk?
by RomeoMustDie
Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: “Going Long Volatility”
Replies: 22
Views: 2273

Re: “Going Long Volatility”

It's a great hedge. If users choose to be blind to the tool that's their choice. A hammer is a hammer.
by RomeoMustDie
Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tips on investing play money
Replies: 37
Views: 2215

Re: Tips on investing play money

I have a macro momentum portfolio. Don't listen to the pessimists here. I'm having fun and beating SPY with less risk.
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dump Bonds -- buy AAPL & TSLA split?
Replies: 131
Views: 10800

Re: Dump Bonds -- buy AAPL & TSLA split?

Atleast with AAPL you have some hope of gain or yield. Bonds are stuck in the mud. I think it's difficult for some people to register that the economic environment of the last 40 years may not be the economic environment of tomorrow. I'm glad I've been confident enough in this time to trust my insti...
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 30, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Tale Of Two Bull Markets - very interesting technical analysis
Replies: 5
Views: 1100

Re: A Tale Of Two Bull Markets - very interesting technical analysis

It's a believable analysis which is all that matters in a market driven by group psychology.
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8809
Views: 858423

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

There is one volatility product that kinda works (i.e. hasn't lost >90% of its value over 10 years), XVZ. PF recently (or yahoo finance more likely) added the historical data. For those who care, it works because it shorts up to 30% of short term vix futures when contago is out of control like it i...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can we talk about the future of oil?
Replies: 72
Views: 5168

Re: Can we talk about the future of oil?

I don't like to invest in things that are off trend. Another value trap like british tobacco.
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stock?
Replies: 166
Views: 12113

Re: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stoc

As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance it tells me you haven't lived through a prolonged bear market. A lot of us became a lot less risk tolerant back around 2000 and again in 2008. Certainly you should be weighted toward stocks but maybe do 80-20. Don't use hindsight to get down on yo...
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If International, what specifically?
Replies: 88
Views: 7876

Re: If International, what specifically?

International bond market is very promising right now as a store of value while US is in an inverted yield curve environment.
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed wants inflation
Replies: 30
Views: 3128

Re: Fed wants inflation

It's tough to say. Commodity prices seem to have peaked. If we have a sell off long term bonds might be the asset class to hold now that we have assurances that rates will remain low. Another option is dividend value stocks as a temporary store of value, but I'm not convinced that these can't go low...
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are value stocks ready for a revival?
Replies: 23
Views: 1650

Re: Are value stocks ready for a revival?

Value investing is dead.

It feels like every criteria that value investors use to screen for stocks actively selects the losers.

There is no arbitrage from today's winners to today's losers, I dispute this and the economic beliefs that underpin value investing like efficient market hypothesis.
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stock?
Replies: 166
Views: 12113

Re: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stoc

As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance it tells me you haven't lived through a prolonged bear market. A lot of us became a lot less risk tolerant back around 2000 and again in 2008. Certainly you should be weighted toward stocks but maybe do 80-20. Don't use hindsight to get down on yo...
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whose being naughty and keeping some dry powder around?
Replies: 110
Views: 9561

Re: Whose being naughty and keeping some dry powder around?

I have a small trader account and I fluctuate out of 0-25% cash AA.

Looking at beaten down financial stocks but I'm not sure if the macro will swing back to them anytime soon.

Expecting a sell off sometime soon from the lack of stimulus package.
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8809
Views: 858423

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

" Fed Seen Holding Rates at Zero for Five Years in New Policy " - what does this mean for TMF? I'm interested in BTAL too but it just doesn't have enough volatility to pair it with UPRO. You also can't trade futures in it. Can anyone post a compelling portfolio visualizer that utilizes a ...
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stock?
Replies: 166
Views: 12113

Re: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stoc

As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance it tells me you haven't lived through a prolonged bear market. A lot of us became a lot less risk tolerant back around 2000 and again in 2008. Certainly you should be weighted toward stocks but maybe do 80-20. Don't use hindsight to get down on yo...
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stock?
Replies: 166
Views: 12113

Re: As a 30 year old with extremely high risk tolerance should I even be holding bonds any more or should I go 100% stoc

Bonds are too complex of an instrument lately with a lot of macroeconomic risk.

I'd skip it.

Personally though, I own some international high yield.
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations for wheat beer
Replies: 43
Views: 2951

Re: Recommendations for wheat beer

Looking for suggestions for a good wheat beer / hefeweizen in southern California. There are a ton of breweries around here but IPAs are the craze these days and I definitely am not riding the IPA train. Too bitter for my taste. Hefeweizens are surprisingly rare - I like Blue Moon but that's usuall...
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any car enthusiasts? (or soon to be)
Replies: 130
Views: 8717

Re: Any car enthusiasts? (or soon to be)

Audi R8 is ugly. Saw some at the local supercar dealer. I'd prefer the saleen mustangs or corvette. They're better in person than you might expect.

But anyone can be a car guy if you're willing to play with a mustang GT as a base and go from there.
by RomeoMustDie
Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Baskets vs. M1 Pies
Replies: 21
Views: 2293

Re: Fidelity Baskets vs. M1 Pies

Even fidelity fractional shares annoy me because they can only be done on the self phone app.
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 123
Views: 9782

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

Global bond fund So you recommend 50% TBM and 50% TIBM? That's a good question that I'm also pondering. I think diversifying is good, but inflation is a cyclical problem so I'm not sure you need to make adjustments to the portfolio based on it. The more interesting problem is the rising rates envir...
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 24, 2020 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?
Replies: 123
Views: 9782

Re: The death of nominal bonds? All Weather without bonds?

I have worked hard against my own inclinations to tinker, tilt and ... can't think of another good word that starts with t. Anyway, I am now a proud owner of a 3-fund portfolio, with equities at world-market-cap weights and 60% TBM, due to declining need to take risk. The "bonds are dead"...
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My experience with BoA / Merrill Edge
Replies: 18
Views: 2313

Re: My experience with BoA / Merrill Edge

BoA was a miserable experience. Slowest cash transfers. Account minimums and penalties. Late on paychecks.

Fidelity is 1000x better.
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cord cutting 2020 - Youtube TV
Replies: 142
Views: 12871

Re: Cord cutting 2020 - Youtube TV

I am moving soon and I would like this to be the last cable box I own. The problem is I am a live sports fan and I want to keep ESPN and other sports networks. It looks like Youtube TV has what I want in terms of channels. I could use that along with an Amazon Fire Stick. The $65 per month is less ...
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sell me on a 401(k)
Replies: 43
Views: 2987

Re: Sell me on a 401(k)

I currently contribute to a taxable Vanguard account with every paycheck. I have never used a 401(k), IRA, or any other tax-deferred ERISA account. Is it worth my while to do so? My current employer, like all of my past employers, does not match any contributions, so the sole benefit would be the t...
by RomeoMustDie
Sat Aug 22, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are emergency funds for suckers?
Replies: 202
Views: 16300

Re: Are emergency funds for suckers?

I believe an adequate emergency fund is a necessary milestone for most Americans who live paycheck to paycheck or are in an immature financial position. However, for Bogleheads and those with assets and discipline is an e-fund a wasted effort? In my case, I have a solid job. My "lean" pro...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 21, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 15296

Re: Tilting to International

Not if you don't change your asset allocation based on current market performance. "Market timing" involves choosing your asset allocation based on market performance and as a function of time. It is because your initial asset allocation is weighted by recency bias. You are making a bet t...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 21, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 15296

Re: Tilting to International

Tilting is market timing. Home country bias is market timing. Not if you don't change your asset allocation based on current market performance. "Market timing" involves choosing your asset allocation based on market performance and as a function of time. It is because your initial asset ...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 21, 2020 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 15296

Re: Tilting to International

Tilting is market timing. Home country bias is market timing. Not if you don't change your asset allocation based on current market performance. "Market timing" involves choosing your asset allocation based on market performance and as a function of time. It is because your initial asset ...
by RomeoMustDie
Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 15296

Re: Tilting to International

Tilting is market timing. Home country bias is market timing.

The logical conclusion of the bogleheads ideology is total world fund.
by RomeoMustDie
Wed Aug 19, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Taxable Question: Vanguard ETF VS Fidelity Index Fund
Replies: 30
Views: 2723

Re: Fidelity Taxable Question: Vanguard ETF VS Fidelity Index Fund

Say I have $100,000 to invest in my Fidelity Brokerage Account Would it be better in regards to taxes, fees, other factors, etc, to: A). Purchase VTI (Vanguard Total US Market ETF) B). Purchase FSKAX (Fidelity Total US Market Index Fund) So, ETF VS Index Funds... now that Vanguard ETF's trade free ...
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting to International
Replies: 178
Views: 15296

Re: Tilting to International

Not going global is market timing and always has been when you think about it.

Home country bias is really strong here though.
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 17, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to find a quality, lower cost muscle car
Replies: 94
Views: 6323

Re: Where to find a quality, lower cost muscle car

So my question is what are the best sources to find old muscle cars that are not someone else's headache? I imagine there are forums out there or some ways to find decent older vehicles in good shape, perhaps after the summer season up here in the northeast? Or elsewhere throughout the country..? C...
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 17, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Evidence of Active Investing trailing Passive for Individuals
Replies: 62
Views: 4370

Re: Evidence of Active Investing trailing Passive for Individuals

I have been beating SPY pretty handedly with 2 different portfolio strategies for the last year and it's changed my perspective on the passive vs active debate. My active portfolios also have a lot less volatility and overall risk to the point that I'm considering levering them up at 25-50% ratios. ...
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8337

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

Once again, as the retirement goal becomes closer everyone becomes a market timer... I’m not entirely sure I understand this. Upon retirement many wise investors shatter the illusion that retirement somehow triggers the need to time the market. They continue to invest entirely according to their ri...
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???
Replies: 76
Views: 9247

Re: What is the big deal with RobinHood accounts???

Let's look at what robinhood really means: 1. There is value to online brokerage ease of use and UI 2. There are now younger participants in the market, potentially more than in the past 3. There is wider access to information where investors feel confident enough to invest in individual stocks, ETF...
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8337

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

Talk me out of taking all my tax deferred equities and moving them into bonds soon to avoid what I see as a very likely big spike in coronavirus this fall and severe economic hit. If I am 65/35 now and moving my tax deferred equities into bonds would change my balance to about 40/60. Early 50’s wit...
by RomeoMustDie
Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 172
Views: 24258

Re: Still using total bond market?

jason2459 wrote: Sun Aug 16, 2020 7:25 pm
RomeoMustDie wrote: Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:53 pm I like BNDX. More diversified.
Why not BNDW then?
Yeah I like that one too.
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still using total bond market?
Replies: 172
Views: 24258

Re: Still using total bond market?

I like BNDX. More diversified.
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 16, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing
Replies: 119
Views: 8337

Re: Talk me out of Covid 19 timing

The future of bonds is really murky right now, this is probably the most complex asset class and I feel that it's more speculation putting money into bonds right now than into equities regardless of whether or not the S and P dives tomorrow.

Maybe cash makes more sense right now.
by RomeoMustDie
Sun Aug 16, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Value of Six/Lean Six Sigma certifications and accrediting bodies.
Replies: 27
Views: 2304

Re: Value of Six/Lean Six Sigma certifications and accrediting bodies.

Anyone here certified in Six Sigma and/or Lean Sigma? Seems that ASQ (American Society for Quality) is the most reputable/recognized certification body, but they don’t offer lean sigma certifications, although they do promote lean sigma training courses oddly. The next leading org seems to be IASSC...
by RomeoMustDie
Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet buys gold miner
Replies: 54
Views: 6308

Warren Buffet buys Gold

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-08-14/Warren-Buffett-buys-gold.html We already know that Bogle began to invest in gold towards the end of his life. Now long time gold skeptic Buffet and proponent of passive investing buys gold. It seems that the two major guys that Bogleheads referenced have evolved...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 14, 2020 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adding a Sector ETF to my Stock Portfolio
Replies: 8
Views: 653

Re: Adding a Sector ETF to my Stock Portfolio

I currently my entire stock portfolio invest in the Total Stock ETF (VTI). With bonds returning very little, I'm considering investing around 10% of my stock portfolio in Vanguard's Information Technology ETF. It's returned over 20% annually for the last 10 years. With so many colleges and schools ...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 14, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grappling with the New Reality of Zero Bond Yields Virtually Everywhere
Replies: 69
Views: 6437

Re: Grappling with the New Reality of Zero Bond Yields Virtually Everywhere

I'm curious what you guys make of this: https://www.bridgewater.com/grappling-with-the-new-reality-of-zero-bond-yields-virtually-everywhere In particular, this passage jumped out at me: "Every portfolio is unique, but most have equities and bonds, and the traditional 60/40 mix is a reasonable ...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grappling with the New Reality of Zero Bond Yields Virtually Everywhere
Replies: 69
Views: 6437

Re: Grappling with the New Reality of Zero Bond Yields Virtually Everywhere

I'm curious what you guys make of this: https://www.bridgewater.com/grappling-with-the-new-reality-of-zero-bond-yields-virtually-everywhere In particular, this passage jumped out at me: "Every portfolio is unique, but most have equities and bonds, and the traditional 60/40 mix is a reasonable ...
by RomeoMustDie
Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broad commodity investing with iShares CMDY ETF
Replies: 67
Views: 3848

Re: Broad commodity investing with iShares CMDY ETF

John Bogle towards the end of his life began to explore commodities as a portfolio allocation. So you may have caught on to the logical evolution of the three fund portfolio. Nice - has anyone created a 4-fund port using commodities? Yeah, I own commodities and gold. VTI BND GLD BCI (vanguard has a...
by RomeoMustDie
Wed Aug 12, 2020 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broad commodity investing with iShares CMDY ETF
Replies: 67
Views: 3848

Re: Broad commodity investing with iShares CMDY ETF

John Bogle towards the end of his life began to explore commodities as a portfolio allocation.

So you may have caught on to the logical evolution of the three fund portfolio.