Search found 1530 matches

by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watch out for inflation numbers
Replies: 30
Views: 2854

Re: Watch out for inflation numbers

Nothing to see here. Move along. This is a good write up: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/simple-math-is-about-to-cause-an-inflation-problem-quicktake If you want to save money, don't: road trip, fly, or rent a hotel room or a vehicle. Also, going out to eat is more expensive. Thi...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 246
Views: 29850

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

At some point the market will crash again. No clue when that will happen. If it drops 35% again, I'd prefer to be up 100% before taking that drop. It won't hurt as bad.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Replies: 21
Views: 1512

Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?

Nope.

I'm already capped on my individual stock holdings.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting Rid of Old Investments
Replies: 5
Views: 540

Re: Getting Rid of Old Investments

I think, it really depends how much tax you want to pay versus how much fees you want to pay. Whether you do this all at once or overtime is really up to you. I have no clue if DCAing over time versus buying in one lump sum will be better or worse right now. I don't have that crystal ball.
by rockstar
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 43: will early retirement plan work?
Replies: 2
Views: 973

Re: 43 with $210K: will early retirement plan work?

There a lot of unknown variables in play here, but I'll play along a bit for fun. For a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation I'll assume the following: You'll need ~$75K/year pre-tax income from your portfolio ($5K/month + 22% federal income tax + $0 state income tax), and You'll spend at least $...
by rockstar
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14376
Views: 1108340

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Money Flow Index is close to overbought for QQQ and VOO. IWM is still below 50. Got my last purchases in while both QQQ and VOO were hovering around 50. Going to continue to put all of my 401k into VOO equivalent available to me. Going to wait for the money flow index to get back down near 50 before...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The First 100k
Replies: 15
Views: 2939

Re: The First 100k

It's all relative to how much you make.
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tire experts? Can I trust a patched tire?
Replies: 52
Views: 7137

Re: Tire experts? Can I trust a patched tire?

I've had my tires patched by Discount Tire for free. And I was able to use them until the thread wore down enough to require replacement. I'd take it to them.
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much should I overpay?
Replies: 51
Views: 5176

Re: How much should I overpay?

How's the inventory by you? It's really low by me. The supply/demand doesn't make any sense. Check out this ratio before you sell and buy: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-to-rent-ratio.asp https://www.mashvisor.com/blog/price-to-rent-ratio-by-city-2021/ My cap is 20x. I won't pay more. Th...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3701

Re: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement

I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. The research and calculators I have looked at haven't directly addressed this one. Take last year for example, if you withdrew your money in March 2020, then you'd be in a far different place than if you withdrew your money December 2020. A monthly withdr...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement
Replies: 38
Views: 3701

Re: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement

I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. The research and calculators I have looked at haven't directly addressed this one. Take last year for example, if you withdrew your money in March 2020, then you'd be in a far different place than if you withdrew your money December 2020. A monthly withdra...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help analyze my HVAC decision
Replies: 19
Views: 1570

Re: Help analyze my HVAC decision

I'd go as simple as possible, not as efficient as possible. If your unit is too complicated, it's going to cost far more to maintain and finding HVAC folk that can maintain it will be more difficult.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 51
Views: 5241

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

As rockstar pointed out, under current conditions fixed-income is not expected to give anything like historical returns, & for equities: If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close to zero nominal for the next decade Perhaps. This is much less...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you competitive? If so, how do you compete as you get older?
Replies: 46
Views: 2961

Re: Are you competitive? If so, how do you compete as you get older?

I know a guys who has been hiking Rim to Rim of the GC every year since he turned 40. He's now in his 70s. Stay active.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5075
Views: 1323702

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Two books right now.

* Ghetto Cowboy (basis for Concrete Cowboy on Netflix)

* The Splendid and the Vile
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3500
Views: 582719

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

7%.

I feel pretty good about it.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 51
Views: 5241

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do I learn to buy a car?
Replies: 15
Views: 1424

Re: How do I learn to buy a car?

I did auto pricing/financing as a job a long time ago. Let me tell you. Nobody really gets a good price. There are some outliers, but they are really rare. And it's usually the dealer screwing up. Your best bet is to use a program like Costco to get a good price. It's not the best, but it's not bad ...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 51
Views: 5241

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close ...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14376
Views: 1108340

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nice run up at the end.

What's the going on with small cap? It's only 2% of my portfolio, but it's sure volatile.
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14376
Views: 1108340

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Ha, I've never thought about that before. That explains why the open doesn't match the prior close? From 1993 to 2018, all of the S&P 500's price gains came in the overnight session ( NYT story ). It's pretty interesting, but that's when the news happens, after all. I get better pricing when I ...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?
Replies: 112
Views: 7006

Re: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?

There are two types of people in the world. The first type you tell don't touch the hot oven you might burn yourself. They listen and don't get burnt. The second type has to get burnt to learn that it's a bad idea. The OP is one of these two types. The question is: how many times do you need to get ...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good asset allocation for us?
Replies: 17
Views: 1516

Re: What is a good asset allocation for us?

Have you tried this high level calc: https://firecalc.com/
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 5277

Re: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks

I'm using MO as a bond replacement even though I know it's not negatively correlated. Once I can get bonds that pay above inflation and above my mortgage, I'll sell MO and buy bonds. I have a position in AMZN that I started March 2020 figuring people would switch to online shopping. I've been in it ...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18213

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Funeral homes. Lots of boomers will be visiting them soon.
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much $$ to get kitchen cabinets painted?
Replies: 42
Views: 4111

Re: How much $$ to get kitchen cabinets painted?

I once looked at a home, where the owner had spray painted all of the cabinets black. I don't recommend that approach.
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14376
Views: 1108340

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. So you sold it out of one al...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14376
Views: 1108340

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. So you sold it out of one al...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buy more bonds now or wait?
Replies: 25
Views: 4916

Re: Buy more bonds now or wait?

Unless you go out 30 years in duration, you're likely to not keep up with inflation. If you have a mortgage, it's likely has a higher rate than investment grade bonds do right now. No idea if they will keep going up or stay where they are at now. I struggle to buy bonds that don't keep up with infla...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Senior Collge Student Earned $600,000 Needs Guidance
Replies: 20
Views: 3323

Re: Senior Collge Student Earned $600,000 Needs Guidance

Great job. Don't forget to pay the tax man. Then, with what's left over, I'd either buy a total stock market index fund or figure out some combination of VOO, QQQ, IWM, and VNQ that fits your risk profile. Then, I'd let it run. He can probably afford to take a less stressful job as he should be able...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emotional Side of Investing
Replies: 28
Views: 2608

Re: The Emotional Side of Investing

The market needs to move a lot for me to get at all emotional. Mostly it's frustration because the market will always drop after I buy shares in my taxable.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?
Replies: 132
Views: 12655

Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

The real estate market makes no sense, so I don't expect Zillow estimates to make much sense in this market either. The data their model was trained on looks nothing like what we're experiencing now.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Satisfaction vs Maximizing Income
Replies: 87
Views: 5844

Re: Job Satisfaction vs Maximizing Income

No matter what job you choose, you'll eventually end up bored. It's just a matter of how long that takes.
by rockstar
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 391
Views: 32860

Re: International is in meltdown

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:48 pm It's been a year since this thread and International still lags, and lags badly... where is the imminent outperformance that this asset class was supposedly going to deliver? That is what all the experts were saying... but I am still waiting just like a lot of folks.
I wish you the best of luck.
by rockstar
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 214
Views: 17684

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

If we're talking about stimulus payments, then most of the inflation we experience this will come down by next year. This is a one time pump. Of course, the personal savings rate is still in the double digits. If that ever gets spent, then we'll see a few future blips. None of this has me worried. ...
by rockstar
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14376
Views: 1108340

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Do I smell a soaring Monday due to lower unemployment or red bears due to fear of rate hikes secondary to accelerated recovery? The futures market reacted positively to the employment numbers. "Stronger-than-forecast March hiring pushed up U.S. stock futures on Friday and sowed optimism among ...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is private wealth management worth it?
Replies: 64
Views: 9922

Re: Is private wealth management worth it?

$20 Million is a lot of money. If I were you, I would begin interviewing companies and/or advisors for at least a fee only type of fiduciary plan for you to consider. Get a sense of what they could offer but I wouldn't just invest all that money into a three fund plan. The biggest complication with...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14376
Views: 1108340

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Do I smell a soaring Monday due to lower unemployment or red bears due to fear of rate hikes secondary to accelerated recovery? The futures market reacted positively to the employment numbers. "Stronger-than-forecast March hiring pushed up U.S. stock futures on Friday and sowed optimism among ...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 72
Views: 8058

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

Very important function? You mean by being over leveraged to the hills, not disclosing their assets, being margin called, and tanking the entire economy? Yes very important if you ask Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros., and Archegos. They are particularly good at being wrong about the “price discovery mech...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA for someone 2 years from retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 4752

Re: AA for someone 2 years from retirement

No idea. I'm about 10 years, and I'm close to being 100% in equities right now. I'm trying to figure this out now for myself too. I expect my expenses to go up with inflation over time. It's tough to buy and hold bonds when they aren't keeping up with inflation. That's where I struggle now. And at s...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4591

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

There is going to be a lot of pent of demand for travel and men's pants, so that's where I expect cash to go that isn't being used to pay down debt. How much can one spend on pants? Even my past fancy tailored pants weren't expensive enough to make a big dent in our surplus. How much can airlines a...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4591

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

There is going to be a lot of pent of demand for travel and men's pants, so that's where I expect cash to go that isn't being used to pay down debt. How much can one spend on pants? Even my past fancy tailored pants weren't expensive enough to make a big dent in our surplus. How much can airlines a...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stock
Replies: 9
Views: 916

Re: Single stock

I currently own two individual stocks: AMZN and MO. I bought AMZN (~11% of my portfolio) in March of 2020 when the market tanked on 3/30 and 3/31. I bought MO for $42 (~5% of my portfolio) when my CDs matured that I didn't sell last year. MO at the time I bought it yielded 8%, so even if I lose valu...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4591

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

I'm seeing a lot of this around my neighborhood. However, this has also gotten more expensive. Right now, I'll hike and stream TV shows. Exercise only burns calories, though, not cash. So the problem lingers. There is going to be a lot of pent of demand for travel and men's pants, so that's where I...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco organic chicken / eggs
Replies: 23
Views: 2271

Re: Costco organic chicken / eggs

Costco organic is the same as Whole Foods organic. The only difference is that one costs more than the other.

Now, I can tell a difference between local milk and organic Costco milk. But it's very minor.
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4591

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

Man... Everything is going up in value now Houses Cars Watches or any luxury goods Seems like Fed is printing money and everything looks like going up in value... in reality is that cash is losing money. How is everyone dealing with this dillema? I am trying to invest everything but my EF... any th...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: WSJ article "How to Know if Your Retirement Savings Are on Track"
Replies: 33
Views: 4543

Re: WSJ article "How to Know if Your Retirement Savings Are on Track"

Expenses might go up by inflation every year. So if your expenses today are $50K, and you plan to retire in ten years, I'd say your expense number is roughly $50k * 1.02^10, assuming a 2% inflation rate. Then, take that number and times it by 25x or 33x. That's what you want by that point. For me 10...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk
Replies: 167
Views: 15754

Re: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk

This is how I think about it. Inflation is expected to hit 2.5%. A yield of 1.1% isn't going to cover it. If you're buying this, so that you don't panic sell stocks, then that's your cost plus however much this fund price changes. You also give up potential stock returns as well. So how much do you ...