Bogleheads.org

rockstar

My expectation is that foreclosures will go up and housing supply will go up.

rockstar

You can't find homes right now that work for 3x income for the median income level in the US. Supply is constrained right now. Building costs are up. This is not a good time to buy. If you don't own one already, your choices are to either rent or live with the parents. But I can see landlords increa...

rockstar

Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while. What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway? The price went up 'too fast'? It's when the money flow index breaks 80. It's an actual index. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/tech...

rockstar

Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.

rockstar

Gold and stocks going to the moon. A little pull back in QQQ today, but that makes sense after yesterday. Of course, this ETF has been pretty volatile this year. VOO is far less volatile. Maybe I buy some UPRO after my dividends hit at the end of the month.

rockstar

Some of your expenses are likely to go up with inflation. If you're going to withdraw 4% and inflation is 2%, you want to earn at least 6% plus whatever you pay in taxes to maintain the same inflation adjusted balance. And some expenses are one time things such as roof replacement, HVAC, and applian...

rockstar

What's the tax benefit for your retirement plan? I get a match plus it's usually enough to push me down a bracket. I can coast right now, but I'd prefer to get the tax benefit and match. But I have no clue what the market return will be over the next 5-10 years.

rockstar

Looks like gold soaring. The end is nigh.

rockstar

Here's another way to think about it. Let's say that your mortgage payment is $2k a month for a roughly $475k mortgage ( PV(3%/12, 360, -2000). That's a $24k yearly expense. If you use the 25x rule, you'll need $600k in a portfolio to service a $475k loan. If you use the 33x rule, then you'll need e...

rockstar

Nope. Travel has gotten ridiculously expensive. I hope this is transitory due to pent up demand. And you also have various COVID restrictions going on around the country. Why would I want to retire in this environment? As for the stock market, maybe price has gotten ahead of earnings, but I'll wait ...

rockstar

Why, then, do so many very respected financial gurus, the most well known being Dave Ramsey, but also many others, advocate so hard for mortgage paydown before taxable investing? Is it simply to appeal to the masses because the masses would likely not be disciplined, so the mortgage paydown is forc...

rockstar

I have an emergency fund that's basically cash given interest are so low. Why would someone not be invested?

rockstar

Nothing to see here. Move along. This is a good write up: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/simple-math-is-about-to-cause-an-inflation-problem-quicktake If you want to save money, don't: road trip, fly, or rent a hotel room or a vehicle. Also, going out to eat is more expensive. Thi...

rockstar

At some point the market will crash again. No clue when that will happen. If it drops 35% again, I'd prefer to be up 100% before taking that drop. It won't hurt as bad.

rockstar

Nope.

I'm already capped on my individual stock holdings.

rockstar

I think, it really depends how much tax you want to pay versus how much fees you want to pay. Whether you do this all at once or overtime is really up to you. I have no clue if DCAing over time versus buying in one lump sum will be better or worse right now. I don't have that crystal ball.

rockstar

There a lot of unknown variables in play here, but I'll play along a bit for fun. For a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation I'll assume the following: You'll need ~$75K/year pre-tax income from your portfolio ($5K/month + 22% federal income tax + $0 state income tax), and You'll spend at least $...

rockstar

Money Flow Index is close to overbought for QQQ and VOO. IWM is still below 50. Got my last purchases in while both QQQ and VOO were hovering around 50. Going to continue to put all of my 401k into VOO equivalent available to me. Going to wait for the money flow index to get back down near 50 before...

rockstar

What's your FIRE number?

rockstar

It's all relative to how much you make.

rockstar

I've had my tires patched by Discount Tire for free. And I was able to use them until the thread wore down enough to require replacement. I'd take it to them.

rockstar

How's the inventory by you? It's really low by me. The supply/demand doesn't make any sense. Check out this ratio before you sell and buy: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-to-rent-ratio.asp https://www.mashvisor.com/blog/price-to-rent-ratio-by-city-2021/ My cap is 20x. I won't pay more. Th...

rockstar

I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. The research and calculators I have looked at haven't directly addressed this one. Take last year for example, if you withdrew your money in March 2020, then you'd be in a far different place than if you withdrew your money December 2020. A monthly withdr...

rockstar

I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. The research and calculators I have looked at haven't directly addressed this one. Take last year for example, if you withdrew your money in March 2020, then you'd be in a far different place than if you withdrew your money December 2020. A monthly withdra...

rockstar

I'd go as simple as possible, not as efficient as possible. If your unit is too complicated, it's going to cost far more to maintain and finding HVAC folk that can maintain it will be more difficult.

rockstar

As rockstar pointed out, under current conditions fixed-income is not expected to give anything like historical returns, & for equities: If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close to zero nominal for the next decade Perhaps. This is much less...

rockstar

I know a guys who has been hiking Rim to Rim of the GC every year since he turned 40. He's now in his 70s. Stay active.

rockstar

Two books right now.

* Ghetto Cowboy (basis for Concrete Cowboy on Netflix)

* The Splendid and the Vile

rockstar

7%.

I feel pretty good about it.

rockstar

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close...

rockstar

I did auto pricing/financing as a job a long time ago. Let me tell you. Nobody really gets a good price. There are some outliers, but they are really rare. And it's usually the dealer screwing up. Your best bet is to use a program like Costco to get a good price. It's not the best, but it's not bad ...

rockstar

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close ...

rockstar

Nice run up at the end.

What's the going on with small cap? It's only 2% of my portfolio, but it's sure volatile.

rockstar

Ha, I've never thought about that before. That explains why the open doesn't match the prior close? From 1993 to 2018, all of the S&P 500's price gains came in the overnight session ( NYT story ). It's pretty interesting, but that's when the news happens, after all. I get better pricing when I ...

rockstar

There are two types of people in the world. The first type you tell don't touch the hot oven you might burn yourself. They listen and don't get burnt. The second type has to get burnt to learn that it's a bad idea. The OP is one of these two types. The question is: how many times do you need to get ...

rockstar

Have you tried this high level calc: https://firecalc.com/

rockstar

I'm using MO as a bond replacement even though I know it's not negatively correlated. Once I can get bonds that pay above inflation and above my mortgage, I'll sell MO and buy bonds. I have a position in AMZN that I started March 2020 figuring people would switch to online shopping. I've been in it ...

rockstar

Funeral homes. Lots of boomers will be visiting them soon.

rockstar

I once looked at a home, where the owner had spray painted all of the cabinets black. I don't recommend that approach.

rockstar

Makes sense to me. And Marx is cool. The struggle is real.

rockstar

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. So you sold it out of one al...

rockstar

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. So you sold it out of one al...

rockstar

Unless you go out 30 years in duration, you're likely to not keep up with inflation. If you have a mortgage, it's likely has a higher rate than investment grade bonds do right now. No idea if they will keep going up or stay where they are at now. I struggle to buy bonds that don't keep up with infla...

rockstar

Great job. Don't forget to pay the tax man. Then, with what's left over, I'd either buy a total stock market index fund or figure out some combination of VOO, QQQ, IWM, and VNQ that fits your risk profile. Then, I'd let it run. He can probably afford to take a less stressful job as he should be able...

rockstar

The market needs to move a lot for me to get at all emotional. Mostly it's frustration because the market will always drop after I buy shares in my taxable.

rockstar

The real estate market makes no sense, so I don't expect Zillow estimates to make much sense in this market either. The data their model was trained on looks nothing like what we're experiencing now.

rockstar

No matter what job you choose, you'll eventually end up bored. It's just a matter of how long that takes.

rockstar

stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:48 pm It's been a year since this thread and International still lags, and lags badly... where is the imminent outperformance that this asset class was supposedly going to deliver? That is what all the experts were saying... but I am still waiting just like a lot of folks.

I wish you the best of luck.

rockstar

If we're talking about stimulus payments, then most of the inflation we experience this will come down by next year. This is a one time pump. Of course, the personal savings rate is still in the double digits. If that ever gets spent, then we'll see a few future blips. None of this has me worried. ...

rockstar

Do I smell a soaring Monday due to lower unemployment or red bears due to fear of rate hikes secondary to accelerated recovery? The futures market reacted positively to the employment numbers. "Stronger-than-forecast March hiring pushed up U.S. stock futures on Friday and sowed optimism among ...

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