Search found 1551 matches

by rockstar
Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hit Millionaire Status! [Does anyone shift when they hit a milestone?]
Replies: 55
Views: 5306

Re: Hit Millionaire Status!

I max out my 401K now mainly to push me down a tax bracket. But my investments are split almost 50/50 between tax advantaged and taxable. I like the option of pulling money out of taxable if I want. I haven't yet, but I like the option. I have enough in taxable to pay off my mortgage multiple times,...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22960
Views: 3012226

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Like I said before, VOO and QQQ were in overbought land before they both dropped for the last two days using the money flow index. I'm not seeing either in overbought now, but they're still both really close. I'm going wait for them to get back in the 50 range before pulling the trigger to buy more...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22960
Views: 3012226

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Like I said before, VOO and QQQ were in overbought land before they both dropped for the last two days using the money flow index. I'm not seeing either in overbought now, but they're still both really close. I'm going wait for them to get back in the 50 range before pulling the trigger to buy more ...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 18, 2021 7:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage Payoff vs Taxable Account - What else should I consider?
Replies: 57
Views: 4878

Re: Mortgage Payoff vs Taxable Account - What else should I consider?

The stock market can return zero for the next decade. Returns bounce around a lot. There will be some years where your return will be less than your mortgage rate. There will be years where it greatly exceeds your 8% expectation. What's your plan to deal with volatility? How do you plan to stick to ...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?
Replies: 47
Views: 3452

Re: Maybe a stupid question but why invest in bonds instead of paying down mortgage?

Unless you are fully retired, why bother having a bond allocation? Treasury rates yield much lower than your mortgage rate. Nobody has a mortgage rate lower than 1.6%. Therefore shouldn’t your bond allocation be used to pay down your mortgage as you will achieve a higher “return” this way? Plus the...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 18, 2021 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whence inflation?
Replies: 174
Views: 11744

Re: Whence inflation?

I am starting to see what I like to call "hidden inflation" with our groceries. Instead of charging more money the manufactures are keeping the prices about the same but reducing the amount of food in the package you buy. Though it is not showing up in any type food price index the effect...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do simple index fund-only portfolios (e.g., 3-fund, 5-fund, etc.) work for the ultra wealthy (say, $20+ million)?
Replies: 96
Views: 9979

Re: Do simple index fund-only portfolios (e.g., 3-fund, 5-fund, etc.) work for the ultra wealthy (say, $20+ million)?

I'd stick with a simple portfolio. But I'd get a good tax accountant. You could also go the foundation route like Gates.
by rockstar
Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Facemask Recommendations?
Replies: 45
Views: 2907

Re: Facemask Recommendations?

We got boxes of blue disposable ones from Costco.
by rockstar
Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Take risk on equity side”
Replies: 58
Views: 4774

Re: “Take risk on equity side”

It sounds like don't chase yield.

However, I don't get the point of holding bonds that don't yield more than my mortgage or keep up with inflation.

I also don't get why folks are buying international equities.

In other words, investing is pretty irrational.
by rockstar
Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Impacts of Lifting Eviction Moratoriums?
Replies: 10
Views: 1605

Re: Impacts of Lifting Eviction Moratoriums?

My expectation is that foreclosures will go up and housing supply will go up.
by rockstar
Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who can truly afford to buy a house in this market?
Replies: 26
Views: 1779

Re: Who can truly afford to buy a house in this market?

You can't find homes right now that work for 3x income for the median income level in the US. Supply is constrained right now. Building costs are up. This is not a good time to buy. If you don't own one already, your choices are to either rent or live with the parents. But I can see landlords increa...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while. What does 'overbought' even really mean, anyway? The price went up 'too fast'? It's when the money flow index breaks 80. It's an actual index. https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/tech...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 16, 2021 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Money Flow Index is showing both VOO and QQQ as overbought. This hasn't happened in a while.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Gold and stocks going to the moon. A little pull back in QQQ today, but that makes sense after yesterday. Of course, this ETF has been pretty volatile this year. VOO is far less volatile. Maybe I buy some UPRO after my dividends hit at the end of the month.
by rockstar
Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% Rule - Simplified?
Replies: 19
Views: 1549

Re: The 4% Rule - Simplified?

Some of your expenses are likely to go up with inflation. If you're going to withdraw 4% and inflation is 2%, you want to earn at least 6% plus whatever you pay in taxes to maintain the same inflation adjusted balance. And some expenses are one time things such as roof replacement, HVAC, and applian...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How close to retirement age would you start to coast instead of grinding it out?
Replies: 125
Views: 12225

Re: How close to retirement age would you start to coast instead of grinding it out?

What's the tax benefit for your retirement plan? I get a match plus it's usually enough to push me down a bracket. I can coast right now, but I'd prefer to get the tax benefit and match. But I have no clue what the market return will be over the next 5-10 years.
by rockstar
Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Looks like gold soaring. The end is nigh.
by rockstar
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Nobody's ever regretted paying off the mortgage."
Replies: 486
Views: 31703

Re: "Nobody's ever regretted paying off the mortgage."

Here's another way to think about it. Let's say that your mortgage payment is $2k a month for a roughly $475k mortgage ( PV(3%/12, 360, -2000). That's a $24k yearly expense. If you use the 25x rule, you'll need $600k in a portfolio to service a $475k loan. If you use the 33x rule, then you'll need e...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?
Replies: 124
Views: 13959

Re: If you hit your # would you retire in this market?

Nope. Travel has gotten ridiculously expensive. I hope this is transitory due to pent up demand. And you also have various COVID restrictions going on around the country. Why would I want to retire in this environment? As for the stock market, maybe price has gotten ahead of earnings, but I'll wait ...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "Nobody's ever regretted paying off the mortgage."
Replies: 486
Views: 31703

Re: "Nobody's ever regretted paying off the mortgage."

Why, then, do so many very respected financial gurus, the most well known being Dave Ramsey, but also many others, advocate so hard for mortgage paydown before taxable investing? Is it simply to appeal to the masses because the masses would likely not be disciplined, so the mortgage paydown is forc...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 14, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 262
Views: 33081

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

I have an emergency fund that's basically cash given interest are so low. Why would someone not be invested?
by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Watch out for inflation numbers
Replies: 49
Views: 5117

Re: Watch out for inflation numbers

Nothing to see here. Move along. This is a good write up: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/simple-math-is-about-to-cause-an-inflation-problem-quicktake If you want to save money, don't: road trip, fly, or rent a hotel room or a vehicle. Also, going out to eat is more expensive. Thi...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?
Replies: 262
Views: 33081

Re: Anyone else hoarding cash right now?

At some point the market will crash again. No clue when that will happen. If it drops 35% again, I'd prefer to be up 100% before taking that drop. It won't hurt as bad.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?
Replies: 212
Views: 14417

Re: Coinbase IPO - anyone tempted?

Nope.

I'm already capped on my individual stock holdings.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 13, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting Rid of Old Investments
Replies: 6
Views: 871

Re: Getting Rid of Old Investments

I think, it really depends how much tax you want to pay versus how much fees you want to pay. Whether you do this all at once or overtime is really up to you. I have no clue if DCAing over time versus buying in one lump sum will be better or worse right now. I don't have that crystal ball.
by rockstar
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 43: will early retirement plan work?
Replies: 2
Views: 1040

Re: 43 with $210K: will early retirement plan work?

There a lot of unknown variables in play here, but I'll play along a bit for fun. For a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation I'll assume the following: You'll need ~$75K/year pre-tax income from your portfolio ($5K/month + 22% federal income tax + $0 state income tax), and You'll spend at least $...
by rockstar
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Money Flow Index is close to overbought for QQQ and VOO. IWM is still below 50. Got my last purchases in while both QQQ and VOO were hovering around 50. Going to continue to put all of my 401k into VOO equivalent available to me. Going to wait for the money flow index to get back down near 50 before...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The First 100k
Replies: 21
Views: 4454

Re: The First 100k

It's all relative to how much you make.
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tire experts? Can I trust a patched tire?
Replies: 55
Views: 7618

Re: Tire experts? Can I trust a patched tire?

I've had my tires patched by Discount Tire for free. And I was able to use them until the thread wore down enough to require replacement. I'd take it to them.
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much should I overpay?
Replies: 51
Views: 5217

Re: How much should I overpay?

How's the inventory by you? It's really low by me. The supply/demand doesn't make any sense. Check out this ratio before you sell and buy: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/price-to-rent-ratio.asp https://www.mashvisor.com/blog/price-to-rent-ratio-by-city-2021/ My cap is 20x. I won't pay more. Th...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement
Replies: 39
Views: 3984

Re: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement

I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. The research and calculators I have looked at haven't directly addressed this one. Take last year for example, if you withdrew your money in March 2020, then you'd be in a far different place than if you withdrew your money December 2020. A monthly withdr...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 11, 2021 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement
Replies: 39
Views: 3984

Re: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement

I'm trying to wrap my head around this one. The research and calculators I have looked at haven't directly addressed this one. Take last year for example, if you withdrew your money in March 2020, then you'd be in a far different place than if you withdrew your money December 2020. A monthly withdra...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help analyze my HVAC decision
Replies: 19
Views: 1629

Re: Help analyze my HVAC decision

I'd go as simple as possible, not as efficient as possible. If your unit is too complicated, it's going to cost far more to maintain and finding HVAC folk that can maintain it will be more difficult.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 51
Views: 5280

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

As rockstar pointed out, under current conditions fixed-income is not expected to give anything like historical returns, & for equities: If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close to zero nominal for the next decade Perhaps. This is much less...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you competitive? If so, how do you compete as you get older?
Replies: 46
Views: 2998

Re: Are you competitive? If so, how do you compete as you get older?

I know a guys who has been hiking Rim to Rim of the GC every year since he turned 40. He's now in his 70s. Stay active.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5093
Views: 1325163

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Two books right now.

* Ghetto Cowboy (basis for Concrete Cowboy on Netflix)

* The Splendid and the Vile
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3500
Views: 582879

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

7%.

I feel pretty good about it.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 51
Views: 5280

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do I learn to buy a car?
Replies: 15
Views: 1439

Re: How do I learn to buy a car?

I did auto pricing/financing as a job a long time ago. Let me tell you. Nobody really gets a good price. There are some outliers, but they are really rare. And it's usually the dealer screwing up. Your best bet is to use a program like Costco to get a good price. It's not the best, but it's not bad ...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 51
Views: 5280

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close ...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nice run up at the end.

What's the going on with small cap? It's only 2% of my portfolio, but it's sure volatile.
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Ha, I've never thought about that before. That explains why the open doesn't match the prior close? From 1993 to 2018, all of the S&P 500's price gains came in the overnight session ( NYT story ). It's pretty interesting, but that's when the news happens, after all. I get better pricing when I ...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?
Replies: 112
Views: 7255

Re: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?

There are two types of people in the world. The first type you tell don't touch the hot oven you might burn yourself. They listen and don't get burnt. The second type has to get burnt to learn that it's a bad idea. The OP is one of these two types. The question is: how many times do you need to get ...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good asset allocation for us?
Replies: 17
Views: 1558

Re: What is a good asset allocation for us?

Have you tried this high level calc: https://firecalc.com/
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks
Replies: 57
Views: 5465

Re: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks

I'm using MO as a bond replacement even though I know it's not negatively correlated. Once I can get bonds that pay above inflation and above my mortgage, I'll sell MO and buy bonds. I have a position in AMZN that I started March 2020 figuring people would switch to online shopping. I've been in it ...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18572

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Funeral homes. Lots of boomers will be visiting them soon.
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much $$ to get kitchen cabinets painted?
Replies: 42
Views: 4129

Re: How much $$ to get kitchen cabinets painted?

I once looked at a home, where the owner had spray painted all of the cabinets black. I don't recommend that approach.
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14688
Views: 1129834

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. So you sold it out of one al...