Search found 1518 matches

by rockstar
Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help analyze my HVAC decision
Replies: 17
Views: 1229

Re: Help analyze my HVAC decision

I'd go as simple as possible, not as efficient as possible. If your unit is too complicated, it's going to cost far more to maintain and finding HVAC folk that can maintain it will be more difficult.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 37
Views: 3923

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

As rockstar pointed out, under current conditions fixed-income is not expected to give anything like historical returns, & for equities: If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close to zero nominal for the next decade Perhaps. This is much less...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you competitive? If so, how do you compete as you get older?
Replies: 46
Views: 2926

Re: Are you competitive? If so, how do you compete as you get older?

I know a guys who has been hiking Rim to Rim of the GC every year since he turned 40. He's now in his 70s. Stay active.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 5072
Views: 1323210

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Two books right now.

* Ghetto Cowboy (basis for Concrete Cowboy on Netflix)

* The Splendid and the Vile
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 3500
Views: 582646

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

7%.

I feel pretty good about it.
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 37
Views: 3923

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do I learn to buy a car?
Replies: 15
Views: 1398

Re: How do I learn to buy a car?

I did auto pricing/financing as a job a long time ago. Let me tell you. Nobody really gets a good price. There are some outliers, but they are really rare. And it's usually the dealer screwing up. Your best bet is to use a program like Costco to get a good price. It's not the best, but it's not bad ...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good
Replies: 37
Views: 3923

Re: Real Return Fakers & Quitting Investing For Good

Check out Jack Bogle's book: The Little Book of Common Sense Investing. He walks through his approach for coming up with expected returns. You don't have to agree with it, but it's a good place to start. If you assume that the average PE for equities should be 20x, then equities should return close ...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14281
Views: 1100677

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Nice run up at the end.

What's the going on with small cap? It's only 2% of my portfolio, but it's sure volatile.
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14281
Views: 1100677

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Ha, I've never thought about that before. That explains why the open doesn't match the prior close? From 1993 to 2018, all of the S&P 500's price gains came in the overnight session ( NYT story ). It's pretty interesting, but that's when the news happens, after all. I get better pricing when I ...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?
Replies: 112
Views: 6871

Re: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?

There are two types of people in the world. The first type you tell don't touch the hot oven you might burn yourself. They listen and don't get burnt. The second type has to get burnt to learn that it's a bad idea. The OP is one of these two types. The question is: how many times do you need to get ...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is a good asset allocation for us?
Replies: 17
Views: 1504

Re: What is a good asset allocation for us?

Have you tried this high level calc: https://firecalc.com/
by rockstar
Thu Apr 08, 2021 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks
Replies: 54
Views: 4697

Re: Deciding it it's worth it to buy long-term individual stocks

I'm using MO as a bond replacement even though I know it's not negatively correlated. Once I can get bonds that pay above inflation and above my mortgage, I'll sell MO and buy bonds. I have a position in AMZN that I started March 2020 figuring people would switch to online shopping. I've been in it ...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18165

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Funeral homes. Lots of boomers will be visiting them soon.
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much $$ to get kitchen cabinets painted?
Replies: 42
Views: 4041

Re: How much $$ to get kitchen cabinets painted?

I once looked at a home, where the owner had spray painted all of the cabinets black. I don't recommend that approach.
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14281
Views: 1100677

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. So you sold it out of one al...
by rockstar
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14281
Views: 1100677

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. So you sold it out of one al...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buy more bonds now or wait?
Replies: 25
Views: 4729

Re: Buy more bonds now or wait?

Unless you go out 30 years in duration, you're likely to not keep up with inflation. If you have a mortgage, it's likely has a higher rate than investment grade bonds do right now. No idea if they will keep going up or stay where they are at now. I struggle to buy bonds that don't keep up with infla...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Senior Collge Student Earned $600,000 Needs Guidance
Replies: 20
Views: 3311

Re: Senior Collge Student Earned $600,000 Needs Guidance

Great job. Don't forget to pay the tax man. Then, with what's left over, I'd either buy a total stock market index fund or figure out some combination of VOO, QQQ, IWM, and VNQ that fits your risk profile. Then, I'd let it run. He can probably afford to take a less stressful job as he should be able...
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emotional Side of Investing
Replies: 28
Views: 2586

Re: The Emotional Side of Investing

The market needs to move a lot for me to get at all emotional. Mostly it's frustration because the market will always drop after I buy shares in my taxable.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?
Replies: 127
Views: 12021

Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

The real estate market makes no sense, so I don't expect Zillow estimates to make much sense in this market either. The data their model was trained on looks nothing like what we're experiencing now.
by rockstar
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Job Satisfaction vs Maximizing Income
Replies: 87
Views: 5710

Re: Job Satisfaction vs Maximizing Income

No matter what job you choose, you'll eventually end up bored. It's just a matter of how long that takes.
by rockstar
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 320
Views: 25890

Re: International is in meltdown

stocknoob4111 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:48 pm It's been a year since this thread and International still lags, and lags badly... where is the imminent outperformance that this asset class was supposedly going to deliver? That is what all the experts were saying... but I am still waiting just like a lot of folks.
I wish you the best of luck.
by rockstar
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 204
Views: 16468

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

If we're talking about stimulus payments, then most of the inflation we experience this will come down by next year. This is a one time pump. Of course, the personal savings rate is still in the double digits. If that ever gets spent, then we'll see a few future blips. None of this has me worried. ...
by rockstar
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14281
Views: 1100677

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Do I smell a soaring Monday due to lower unemployment or red bears due to fear of rate hikes secondary to accelerated recovery? The futures market reacted positively to the employment numbers. "Stronger-than-forecast March hiring pushed up U.S. stock futures on Friday and sowed optimism among ...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is private wealth management worth it?
Replies: 64
Views: 9836

Re: Is private wealth management worth it?

$20 Million is a lot of money. If I were you, I would begin interviewing companies and/or advisors for at least a fee only type of fiduciary plan for you to consider. Get a sense of what they could offer but I wouldn't just invest all that money into a three fund plan. The biggest complication with...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14281
Views: 1100677

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Do I smell a soaring Monday due to lower unemployment or red bears due to fear of rate hikes secondary to accelerated recovery? The futures market reacted positively to the employment numbers. "Stronger-than-forecast March hiring pushed up U.S. stock futures on Friday and sowed optimism among ...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 72
Views: 8038

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

Very important function? You mean by being over leveraged to the hills, not disclosing their assets, being margin called, and tanking the entire economy? Yes very important if you ask Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros., and Archegos. They are particularly good at being wrong about the “price discovery mech...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA for someone 2 years from retirement
Replies: 47
Views: 4583

Re: AA for someone 2 years from retirement

No idea. I'm about 10 years, and I'm close to being 100% in equities right now. I'm trying to figure this out now for myself too. I expect my expenses to go up with inflation over time. It's tough to buy and hold bonds when they aren't keeping up with inflation. That's where I struggle now. And at s...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4569

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

There is going to be a lot of pent of demand for travel and men's pants, so that's where I expect cash to go that isn't being used to pay down debt. How much can one spend on pants? Even my past fancy tailored pants weren't expensive enough to make a big dent in our surplus. How much can airlines a...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4569

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

There is going to be a lot of pent of demand for travel and men's pants, so that's where I expect cash to go that isn't being used to pay down debt. How much can one spend on pants? Even my past fancy tailored pants weren't expensive enough to make a big dent in our surplus. How much can airlines a...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Single stock
Replies: 9
Views: 911

Re: Single stock

I currently own two individual stocks: AMZN and MO. I bought AMZN (~11% of my portfolio) in March of 2020 when the market tanked on 3/30 and 3/31. I bought MO for $42 (~5% of my portfolio) when my CDs matured that I didn't sell last year. MO at the time I bought it yielded 8%, so even if I lose valu...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4569

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

I'm seeing a lot of this around my neighborhood. However, this has also gotten more expensive. Right now, I'll hike and stream TV shows. Exercise only burns calories, though, not cash. So the problem lingers. There is going to be a lot of pent of demand for travel and men's pants, so that's where I...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco organic chicken / eggs
Replies: 23
Views: 2234

Re: Costco organic chicken / eggs

Costco organic is the same as Whole Foods organic. The only difference is that one costs more than the other.

Now, I can tell a difference between local milk and organic Costco milk. But it's very minor.
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Cash Trash now?
Replies: 51
Views: 4569

Re: Is Cash Trash now?

Man... Everything is going up in value now Houses Cars Watches or any luxury goods Seems like Fed is printing money and everything looks like going up in value... in reality is that cash is losing money. How is everyone dealing with this dillema? I am trying to invest everything but my EF... any th...
by rockstar
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: WSJ article "How to Know if Your Retirement Savings Are on Track"
Replies: 33
Views: 4529

Re: WSJ article "How to Know if Your Retirement Savings Are on Track"

Expenses might go up by inflation every year. So if your expenses today are $50K, and you plan to retire in ten years, I'd say your expense number is roughly $50k * 1.02^10, assuming a 2% inflation rate. Then, take that number and times it by 25x or 33x. That's what you want by that point. For me 10...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk
Replies: 167
Views: 15735

Re: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk

This is how I think about it. Inflation is expected to hit 2.5%. A yield of 1.1% isn't going to cover it. If you're buying this, so that you don't panic sell stocks, then that's your cost plus however much this fund price changes. You also give up potential stock returns as well. So how much do you ...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 204
Views: 16468

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

If we're talking about stimulus payments, then most of the inflation we experience this will come down by next year. This is a one time pump. Of course, the personal savings rate is still in the double digits. If that ever gets spent, then we'll see a few future blips. None of this has me worried. ...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 204
Views: 16468

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

Here is what Vanguard has to say about inflation and assets to mitigate it in their 2021 outlook: Inflation-hedging: Focus on the betas, not the correlations Although we expect secular forces, demand/supply imbalances, and a persistent output gap to keep a lid on inflation for the foreseeable futur...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 204
Views: 16468

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

What do you consider high inflation? When I think about high inflation back in the 70-80s, I think of Berkshire Letters. Here's a good one. Find this snip below and keep reading. https://berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1980.html "High rates of inflation create a tax on capital that makes much cor...
by rockstar
Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 72
Views: 8038

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

This is the sales side of Wall Street. Talking rich people that lack self esteem into having someone manage their finances for them at an extremely expensive cost. For most people, buying a low cost index fund is good enough. If hedge funds were really good, they would only make profits when they ou...
by rockstar
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I pay off my mortgage or invest?
Replies: 44
Views: 3747

Re: Should I pay off my mortgage or invest?

Right now, whatever I would allocate to bonds, I use to pay down my mortgage, which is at a much higher rate than I can get for investment grade bonds right now. So if you're AA is 20 percent bonds, I'd pay down the mortgage with 20% of investible funds. That's my approach now. It might change once...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser Printer: Buy a New One?
Replies: 53
Views: 3639

Re: Laser Printer: Buy a New One?

I have a dell color laser that gets EXTREMELY light use that I’ve had since 2004 and still works fine. Oops, never mind as it looks they are out of the biz. As a consolation, link to wire cutter review. Maybe just get the cheapest one and replace it when it breaks in a few years. https://www.nytime...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser Printer: Buy a New One?
Replies: 53
Views: 3639

Re: Laser Printer: Buy a New One?

Brother laser printers are highly recommended. I've been using them for around 5 years with no issues. You can get a nice, basic B&W Brother laser for <$100. At that cost, I wouldn't mess around with trying to repair the old printer. Same. I keep Brother printers until I need to replace the dru...
by rockstar
Thu Apr 01, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22918
Views: 3006315

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Looks like Forester should catch the next train out of Bogleheadville, before the townsfolk give him the Game of Thrones treatment... Parading him naked in the streets, following him and chanting "Shame! Shame! Shame!" while ringing a bell... I love he gets some people riled up on the UP/...
by rockstar
Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EMB what asset class?
Replies: 40
Views: 1900

Re: EMB what asset class?

It's a bond. It's not the equivalent of holding a treasury bond from a risk perspective. I see it as a semi-high-yield bond subclass with international exposure. There are some investment-grade bonds and some are not; it is a good choice for those who want to have some high-yield international bond...
by rockstar
Wed Mar 31, 2021 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Has anyone sold a home to Zillow?
Replies: 32
Views: 6280

Re: Has anyone sold a home to Zillow?

I tried to back in 19. But they low balled me by a lot.
by rockstar
Wed Mar 31, 2021 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AAA - American Auto Assn - Service has gone way down
Replies: 90
Views: 7497

Re: AAA - American Auto Assn - Service has gone way down

I just did a test before renewing my AAA membership. Last time I used it, I called the number and a person picked up the phone. They just asked for my name, asked where I was and sent help. Today when I tested it, there were a series of voice messages, buttons to click, then I had to enter my 20 di...