Search found 107 matches

by Goldwater85
Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Live on a lake in Florida?
Replies: 40
Views: 5402

Re: Live on a lake in Florida?

Growing up, my grandparents owned a home with a dock on a decent sized lake in Central Florida. It was a blast. You do see far more alligators now than you did when I was a kid—they’ve received significant protections and their population has exploded. Large alligators used to be killed and preempti...
by Goldwater85
Tue Mar 09, 2021 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Avoid blunder moving from money market to bonds
Replies: 16
Views: 1881

Re: Avoid blunder moving from money market to bonds

Bond markets are different than equity markets in that (i) specific issuances are often fairly illiquid and (ii) central banks regularly intervene actively and directly by acquiring enormous quantities of bonds for reasons that do not relate to expectations for investment returns. Quantitative easin...
by Goldwater85
Mon Mar 08, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about fund selection. Tear my list apart!
Replies: 19
Views: 1280

Re: Thinking about fund selection. Tear my list apart!

As others have pointed out, Morningstar ratings are negatively correlated with future performance if anything (mean reversion). Can't go wrong with a cheap target date fund if you don't know anything--and apt to do better than people who know quite a lot. Vanguard/Fidelity/Schwab all have good ones.
by Goldwater85
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private School - financially irresponsible?
Replies: 213
Views: 16739

Re: Private School - financially irresponsible?

These threads seem to focus on educational quality. If we are talking about a reasonably elite private school, the real value is that it is full of kids whose parents survived a selection process and pay $35,000/yr to send them there. Of the people I know with phenomenal networks and who have levera...
by Goldwater85
Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: too much in 401k may be forced to quit job
Replies: 183
Views: 16834

Re: too much in 401k may be forced to quit job

Nothing wrong with a humble brag, but I don’t get it. Unless you’re a highly compensated employee screwing up the Plan, what’s the issue? Our CFO is asked me to please warn her before maxing out the mega backdoor Roth again this year, but that has nothing to do with the balance I carry in the 401(k)...
by Goldwater85
Fri Feb 19, 2021 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where would you spend $1 million on a home in SW Florida?
Replies: 75
Views: 4916

Re: Where would you spend $1 million on a home in SW Florida?

Suppose someone offered you $1 million to buy a home or condo in southwest Florida. There are only a few strings attached: 1. You must live in the home/condo for at least 183 days per year. 2. You can't sell the home/condo for at least 10 years. 3. You must pay your property taxes, utilities, home ...
by Goldwater85
Fri Feb 12, 2021 9:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overfunded 529 Plans—What are the Options?
Replies: 14
Views: 1570

Re: Overfunded 529 Plans—What are the Options?

Maybe encourage your kids to pick up a JD or MD—that would chew through quite a bit. My plan has always been to leave any excess in the 529 for as long as possible. If no grandkids need it, then I would just pay the 10% penalty and taxes (or let my heirs do it). My 529 holds funds with modest turnov...
by Goldwater85
Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is creditor and divorce protection in an irrevocable trust?
Replies: 11
Views: 649

Re: What is creditor and divorce protection in an irrevocable trust?

These threads are helpful for supplying good questions. But estate and trust law varies tremendously by state and you need to consult a jurisdictional expert. Note that trusts are similar to corporations in that you may be able to avail yourself of the more favorable rules of another state (or count...
by Goldwater85
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:49 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Why A Good Boglehead Must Leave The Bogleheads Forum
Replies: 180
Views: 18386

Re: Why A Good Boglehead Must Leave The Bogleheads Forum

Entirely agree with OP. If one’s goal is to be blissfully unaware and uninformed about the nature and condition of one’s investments, it would be best not to visit finance focused websites. But if OP can apply the right filter, there are a surprising number of posts on the best engine oil brands and...
by Goldwater85
Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are factors (size, value, etc.) simply another way to adjust risk?
Replies: 25
Views: 1538

Re: Are factors (size, value, etc.) simply another way to adjust risk?

Total Stock Market is close to an investing guarantee. Your performance will be almost certainly be in the top decile over 20 years. I'll settle for the essentially guaranteed A versus an elusive A+. Good enough. All the best Not to single out this poster, but this view, also expressed or implied b...
by Goldwater85
Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop Decision
Replies: 78
Views: 4583

Re: Laptop Decision

Apple products don’t generally lend themselves to pure spec comparisons given the level of hardware and software integration. MacOS makes more economical use of RAM than windows. Based on your described usage a base M1 MacBook Air sounds like it would give you a great experience. If you plan to keep...
by Goldwater85
Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I've had my Am Ex for 30 years. Never use it. Renew or let go?
Replies: 34
Views: 2050

Re: I've had my Am Ex for 30 years. Never use it. Renew or let go?

Depending on use case, a Platinum Card can be a great deal. A Green Card is a terrible deal. Cancel it and keep the $150 or find a much better rewards card for the fee.

It may hit your age of credit a bit, but 30 years vs 10 years isn’t much of a difference.
by Goldwater85
Tue Feb 02, 2021 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does tilting to SCV or International really provide any protection?
Replies: 26
Views: 1895

Re: Does tilting to SCV or International really provide any protection?

In terms of maximum drawdowns, a tilt would likely hurt a portfolio. Where the tilt can help is minimizing 5-10-20 year periods of poor absolute performance.
by Goldwater85
Tue Feb 02, 2021 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Commodity Strategy ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 811

Re: Commodity Strategy ETF

Commodities are an example of an asset class that was ‘discovered’ and lost its premium. Before the ‘80s commodity futures were viewed as price insurance for farmers and producers—buyers of futures were paid a premium in order to guarantee sellers a price months in advance. Then institutions recogni...
by Goldwater85
Sat Jan 30, 2021 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Electric Vehicle Tipping Point
Replies: 94
Views: 4515

Re: Electric Vehicle Tipping Point

Am I the only one who thinks this is a fad?
by Goldwater85
Mon Jan 25, 2021 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Desktop is dying - help me with replacement
Replies: 72
Views: 4716

Re: Desktop is dying - help me with replacement

Please at least consider a laptop, with monitor, and wireless keyboard and mouse peripherals.

Best of all worlds.
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 24, 2021 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop
Replies: 133
Views: 19072

Re: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop

His limited run book sells for $1000s per copy. Really :?: I have a used copy in good/excellent condition. I bought "Margin of Safety" at a library sale for, I think, 25 cents many years ago. This was a room where donated books from individuals were sold, not library copies. I guess I wil...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 24, 2021 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop
Replies: 133
Views: 19072

Re: ‘Frogs in boiling water’: Urgent warning for 50% market drop

Klarman is brilliant, with a reasonable claim to being the greatest value manager of all time. His limited run book sells for $1000s per copy. Note though, that he made his money finding value in market-distorting ‘special situations’ (it was easier in the ‘80s and ‘90s). He was never a Soros-like m...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 22, 2021 8:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will and Testamentary Trust
Replies: 30
Views: 1452

Re: Will and Testamentary Trust

... The testamentary trust will be created during probate and your executor will put assets into it then. Directing assets into a testamentary trust will be part of the probate process. ... While the trusts for your children may be created in your Will, your life insurance and retirement benefits p...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 22, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will and Testamentary Trust
Replies: 30
Views: 1452

Re: Will and Testamentary Trust

Some thoughts below. As always, just based on experience and not legal advice--you need to make any decision in consultation with a knowledgable attorney. Given the dollar amounts you're discussing, it may be well worth paying an estate tax specialist, even if you settle on a simple structure. Many ...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 22, 2021 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Work from home getting harder
Replies: 95
Views: 7339

Re: Work from home getting harder

My profession isn't known for its great work-life balance. But I do find that colleagues and counterparties are doing more work at odd hours, which requires me to be more responsive and engage with work during evenings or weekends (more so than normal). On the flip side, I tend to have more free tim...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 22, 2021 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have the new Apple M1 MacBook?
Replies: 28
Views: 2943

Re: Anyone have the new Apple M1 MacBook?

Any MacOS laptop users for whom portability is the main thing, the M1 MacBook Air is an absolute no-brainer purchase decision. Just get it. Apple kept the legacy MacBook Air chassis when it deployed the M1. Historically though, Apple seems to think laptop users want 7-8 hours of battery life, not 1...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have the new Apple M1 MacBook?
Replies: 28
Views: 2943

Re: Anyone have the new Apple M1 MacBook?

To answer your other question, I use ‘Numbers’ (Apple’s spreadsheet) fairly extensively for personal use and it has allowed me to avoid paying for an Excel license. Straightforward, intuitive UI that syncs seamlessly across Apple devices. That said, it is fine, even better for normal consumer usage...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will and Testamentary Trust
Replies: 30
Views: 1452

Re: Will and Testamentary Trust

I am probably wrong on some of this. Either way our inclination is to either leave the secondary beneficiary blank or put our guardians as secondary beneficiaries (people we trust highly). We would give instructions to the guardians to distribute the assets according to what is laid out in our will...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 22, 2021 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Will and Testamentary Trust
Replies: 30
Views: 1452

Re: Will and Testamentary Trust

Life insurance policies and many investment or deposit accounts are designed to avoid probate. Instead you name the beneficiary and the insurer/broker/administrator will just send a check directly to the beneficiary. That’s probably what you want for a spouse—that is not what you want for a two week...
by Goldwater85
Mon Jan 18, 2021 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still max 401k even if no income tax liability?
Replies: 31
Views: 2291

Re: Still max 401k even if no income tax liability?

If you can snag the money 0% tax, do it.

Not guaranteed that a low tax drag fund in a taxable account comes out ahead, but bird in the hand.
by Goldwater85
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best "Value" now Totl Intl/SmCap Val/ US Val?
Replies: 2
Views: 354

Re: Best "Value" now Totl Intl/SmCap Val/ US Val?

I’d pick up a few books on the topic, get a handle on the theory and then work back from there. Larry Swedroe published a good primer on ‘factor’ investing. You can find links in the site’s recommended reading section.
by Goldwater85
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Value vs. Growth: Widest Performance Gap on Record"
Replies: 42
Views: 4310

Re: "Value vs. Growth: Widest Performance Gap on Record"

Looking back empirically, the past decade set up extraordinarily well for outperformance by growth stocks. We’ve had a broadly low growth, low interest rate environment with deflationary headwinds. The archetypal value stock struggles to grow earnings and carries considerable debt on its balance she...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 17, 2021 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone have the new Apple M1 MacBook?
Replies: 28
Views: 2943

Re: Anyone have the new Apple M1 MacBook?

To answer your other question, I use ‘Numbers’ (Apple’s spreadsheet) fairly extensively for personal use and it has allowed me to avoid paying for an Excel license. Straightforward, intuitive UI that syncs seamlessly across Apple devices. That said, it is fine, even better for normal consumer usage—...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 17, 2021 10:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: YOLO vs BH
Replies: 97
Views: 9698

Re: YOLO vs BH

You can do everything possible to avoid the inevitable or you can just live and take your chances. You might not realize it, but either way, you are gambling. Which gamble is more enjoyable? In this day and age this unfortunately can be seen as a controversial statement. For most people, surely the...
by Goldwater85
Tue Jan 12, 2021 4:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk
Replies: 167
Views: 15794

Re: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk

Sorry, nope. vineviz has claimed over and over that Treasuries are a risk-free asset. They are, but that has nothing to do with anything we're discussing so I'm not sure why its being brought up. "Risk-free" is a term of art in this context indicating that there is no default risk on trea...
by Goldwater85
Tue Jan 12, 2021 9:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk
Replies: 167
Views: 15794

Re: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk

Neither of those assets is likely to do well in an inflationary, low growth environment (stagflation). No crystal ball but the concern is legitimate ... How is this concern legitimate? It has happened only one time in the U.S. (I think) Plus Fed policy has changed since then to prevent such a scena...
by Goldwater85
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk
Replies: 167
Views: 15794

Re: Vanguard Total Bond (VBTLX) at 1.11% yield seems high risk

Your trapped in a loop of circular logic, albeit a common one. If you to hold an asset that is most like to buffer against a stock market decline, then you want bonds which have as low a correlation with stocks as you can find and as much variance S possible. That’s long-term Treasury bonds. Defini...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lose $500k quickly
Replies: 22
Views: 4714

Re: Lose $500k quickly

1. A cash/short-term bond portfolio also has risk, just not volatility risk. Imagine inflation increases to 10% and stays there for 5 years. In that scenario, you'll lose more spending power than if you had lost 250k in stocks. Amidst high inflation, especially stagflation, this will only be true o...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 10, 2021 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lose $500k quickly
Replies: 22
Views: 4714

Re: Lose $500k quickly

I’ll take a contrary position. The ONLY reason OP needs to consider a 25% allocation to broad market equities is to hedge inflation. A TIPS ladder works well as long as expenses are low enough to allow the $2 million to be spread over 30-40 years and withstand the guaranteed real loss OP will be inc...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aggresiveness of portfolio if you have a pension?
Replies: 27
Views: 2654

Re: Aggresiveness of portfolio if you have a pension?

The only objective question here is how well funded is the pension? Beyond that, it’s house money and entirely personal. Does pensioner want assurance they’ll be able afford some modest luxuries during retirement? Leave a potentially handsome bequest for the kids? Be the richest guy in the nursing h...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used rental car?
Replies: 22
Views: 1440

Re: Buying a used rental car?

However, I would assume basically zero maintenance has been done so you will want to check out the vehicle carefully. That said, maintenance on modern vehicles is pretty limited. I had a friend that I asked when the last oil change was on her Corolla...she said she had never taken it in at all...sh...
by Goldwater85
Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying a used rental car?
Replies: 22
Views: 1440

Re: Buying a used rental car?

I bought a 2018 Pacifica out of a rental fleet. It’s been great. Very well maintained, and I highly doubt that people renting minivans are driving them like nut jobs. Electrical systems have been our only issue and that is 100% a Chrysler problem, not Hertz or Avis. Edit: A rental car will have high...
by Goldwater85
Sat Jan 09, 2021 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can I teach my 5 year old daughter about investing?
Replies: 109
Views: 5095

Re: How can I teach my 5 year old daughter about investing?

It’s like teaching your 5 year old how to play golf.

Let her hang around the clubhouse and flail at the range with a kids’ 9-iron occasionally. Give her a general sense that it’s a worthwhile thing grown ups do.

Then pay for weekly lessons when she turns 10 or 12.
by Goldwater85
Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you allocate to international equity?
Replies: 133
Views: 10061

Re: How much do you allocate to international equity?

I got the idea from Research Affiliates: they haven't helped investors make money for a while, but I do find their methodology intriguing. I’ve bought into a modified Meb Faber method of buying countries with low CAPEs. I’d suggest it, but most country ETFs have too few underliers to be considered ...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you allocate to international equity?
Replies: 133
Views: 10061

Re: How much do you allocate to international equity?

BuyAndHoldOn wrote: Fri Jan 08, 2021 7:46 pm I periodically hold single-country ETFs like TUR for Turkey, and I also hold EM bonds in one of my tax-advantaged accounts (HSA).
Don’t get sucked into the value trap that is Turkey. Russia or Poland or Singapore maybe. Even Austria.
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 08, 2021 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much do you allocate to international equity?
Replies: 133
Views: 10061

Re: How much do you allocate to international equity?

I emphatically disagree with Bogle on this issue.

I’m 60% international (split among sub regions that I rebalance). I’d be more like 40% if retired.
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 08, 2021 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does leasing a car ever make more sense than paying cash?
Replies: 48
Views: 4789

Re: Does leasing a car ever make more sense than paying cash?

As noted above. Luxury brands are reluctant to have big sales advertising significantly reduced sticker prices (cheapens the brand). Instead, they’ll obfuscate with bargain leases. Always check lease rates if buying a new BMW/Mercedes/Land Rover/etc. Otherwise, unless you just hyperactively turn ove...
by Goldwater85
Wed Jan 06, 2021 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher Sharpe Ratio = Better Investment?
Replies: 14
Views: 985

Re: Higher Sharpe Ratio = Better Investment?

Sharpe ratio can be a helpful in comparing apples with oranges. It’s also a usefully simple metric derived from principles of academic theory. Based on OP’s question and its breadth, OP should just ignore SR’s existence. It’s one of lots of ways of try to slightly improve portfolio performance (and ...
by Goldwater85
Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do lottery winners >$50M pick a CPA/attorney/financial planner?
Replies: 34
Views: 3201

Re: How do lottery winners >$50M pick a CPA/attorney/financial planner?

Yep. A while back I asked a friend who is a partner at an AmLaw 20 firm to recommend a T&E attorney. He said his people deal with clients with many hundreds of millions or billions and their fees would likely he prohibitive for anyone else. The V-20 only maintain T&E practices at all as a f...
by Goldwater85
Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do lottery winners >$50M pick a CPA/attorney/financial planner?
Replies: 34
Views: 3201

Re: How do lottery winners >$50M pick a CPA/attorney/financial planner?

Contrary to popular belief, I generally find (high-caliber) attorneys exceptionally trustworthy, competent and discreet. If you can identify an attorney with a highly regarded trust and estates practice, used by very wealthy clientele in your area, I would start with him. If not, start with Vault 10...
by Goldwater85
Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I don't trust my kids with a trust
Replies: 41
Views: 4891

Re: I don't trust my kids with a trust

If we are talking about $15,000 or really anything less than $50,000 or $100,000 and you have college savings well in hand, I like the UTMA. First car, travel, first downpayment ... lots of edifying experiences that don't fall under a qualifying educational expense. In theory, a UTMA becomes propert...