Search found 241 matches

by Goldwater85
Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid-career change to law?
Replies: 127
Views: 11964

Re: Mid-career change to law?

Realistically, Big Law will not touch a middle age grad. But there are an awful lot of ways to make $300+ per hour as an attorney. Keep your overhead down and it spends. My brother in law’s practice is constrained to about $200 per hour. But he built a good book of business, has four associates and a paralegal working for him and spends most of his time managing. And you have control of your own little business and call your shots. Law isn’t terrible if you do it right. Law isn't bad if you have a steady book of your own business like that. But realistically, it takes a decade or more to build that book. No sophisticated client would touch a fresh lawyer in most practice areas, so you typically have to spend a lot of time working for someo...
by Goldwater85
Tue Mar 05, 2024 9:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mid-career change to law?
Replies: 127
Views: 11964

Re: Mid-career change to law?

Realistically, Big Law will not touch a middle age grad.

But there are an awful lot of ways to make $300+ per hour as an attorney. Keep your overhead down and it spends.

My brother in law’s practice is constrained to about $200 per hour. But he built a good book of business, has four associates and a paralegal working for him and spends most of his time managing.

And you have control of your own little business and call your shots. Law isn’t terrible if you do it right.
by Goldwater85
Tue Mar 05, 2024 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are factors dead?
Replies: 84
Views: 10984

Re: Are factors dead?

Small value has been working fine internationally
by Goldwater85
Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Southwest Airlines Credit Card Strategy
Replies: 31
Views: 3978

Re: Southwest Airlines Credit Card Strategy

Southwest has an offer with a promotional Companion Pass that's good through Feb 2025 when you are a new credit card customer. I plan to fly Southwest a few times this year, but nothing not already booked until after May or June. Is there some optimization of when to apply for this card, so that the promotional Companion Pass starts later in the year and runs for a full year starting then? There's another similar thread, so I apologize for asking the same question in two places. But since I haven't gotten an answer there, I figured it would be ok to post here as well. I just picked up the card with this bonus. My daughter and I live in Dallas, and I fly quite a bit, so this is 50% off cash or points travel. My understanding is that Chase w...
by Goldwater85
Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value - US/International
Replies: 25
Views: 2434

Re: Small Cap Value - US/International

I never really understand the argument for combining market-weighted and SCV funds. It’s difficult to get much weight on SCV factors using long-only funds, especially value. Either you buy into the literature and go 100% SCV with your equities. Or you don’t and stick vanilla index funds. There’s no reason to bother with dipping a toe in the water on SCV. Combining market beta with factors (i.e. VT plus any SCV ETF) isn't to gain the absolute highest return. From my understanding, it's more or less to help someone stick to the plan and not bail out on SCV since it can potentially require decades of underperformance for the premium to appear. Atleast that's the theory You get full beta exposure built into a small cap value fund though. Usual...
by Goldwater85
Sat Feb 17, 2024 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small Cap Value - US/International
Replies: 25
Views: 2434

Re: Small Cap Value - US/International

I never really understand the argument for combining market-weighted and SCV funds. It’s difficult to get much weight on SCV factors using long-only funds, especially value.

Either you buy into the literature and go 100% SCV with your equities. Or you don’t and stick vanilla index funds. There’s no reason to bother with dipping a toe in the water on SCV.
by Goldwater85
Wed Jan 31, 2024 7:32 pm
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Setting up founder shares for US-India consulting business
Replies: 2
Views: 1267

Re: Setting up founder shares for US-India consulting business

I know White & Case has developed a premier group in this area and in all things India. Premier pricing though.

I imagine it’ll be difficult to find anyone outside the AmLaw 100 who can give you good advice on this. It’s too niche.
by Goldwater85
Thu Jan 25, 2024 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rome - Florence - Venice
Replies: 49
Views: 3846

Re: Rome - Florence - Venice

Brian Sewell's Grand Tour is a little obscure but phenomenal. Available free on YouTube now.

Two nights is ample for Florence and Venice, which are places that need to be seen but largely tourist traps in the modern era.

Rome is my favorite city. A real, functioning, bustling, gritty place with amazing food where you'll trip over a Bernini or a 2,000 year old temple. Can you add a couple days there?
by Goldwater85
Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the 10-year Treasury become the uber-benchmark? And why?
Replies: 56
Views: 8310

Re: When did the 10-year Treasury become the uber-benchmark? And why?

Today, as for some years now, the 10-year Treasury yield functions as THE yardstick for measuring interest rates—the benchmark for mortgages and many other rates. Well, no. For Black-Scholes purposes one uses the 3-month bill, for instance. It depends on the application. Treasuries remove credit and currency risk and are the most widely traded issues (i.e. their price is extremely accurate). That’s why they are used as benchmarks. The 10-year in particular as several applications, but it is by no means the only maturity used as benchmark. Most options are very short term instruments. Even most LEAPs, which are a tiny fraction of the market, expire in a year. Of course Black-Scholes chooses a very short-term duration when applying a risk-fr...
by Goldwater85
Sat Jan 06, 2024 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the 10-year Treasury become the uber-benchmark? And why?
Replies: 56
Views: 8310

Re: When did the 10-year Treasury become the uber-benchmark? And why?

This is my hypothesis that somebody with more time could evaluate: It happened in the 1980s when the securitization boom kicked off. Ten-year treasuries had a similar expected duration to 30-year mortgages and the new securitization securities being offered in the late 1980s. It was the logical credit-free benchmark. Further, that was the time when derivatives started taking off, so 10-year Treasury futures could actually serve as a way to hedge the interest rate (but not credit) exposure of mortgage-backed securities and other offerings. If I was Michael Lewis, I would start at the intersection of those two trends. 100% this. The 10-year is the heavily-traded, risk-free security that best approximates the duration of long-term financial a...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the 10-year Treasury become the uber-benchmark? And why?
Replies: 56
Views: 8310

Re: When did the 10-year Treasury become the uber-benchmark? And why?

This is my hypothesis that somebody with more time could evaluate: It happened in the 1980s when the securitization boom kicked off. Ten-year treasuries had a similar expected duration to 30-year mortgages and the new securitization securities being offered in the late 1980s. It was the logical credit-free benchmark. Further, that was the time when derivatives started taking off, so 10-year Treasury futures could actually serve as a way to hedge the interest rate (but not credit) exposure of mortgage-backed securities and other offerings. If I was Michael Lewis, I would start at the intersection of those two trends. 100% this. The 10-year is the heavily-traded, risk-free security that best approximates the duration of long-term financial a...
by Goldwater85
Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Marriage tax penalty and getting a prenup in early 30s
Replies: 121
Views: 18404

Re: Marriage tax penalty and getting a prenup in early 30s

Maybe by accident of history, but the law is set up for legally recognized marital unions. You may be able to recreate much of this contractually, but you’d have to be very careful. If you are incapacitated and in the hospital, the first call will be to your spouse. If you have no spouse, the next call will be to your parents. During this emotionally trying time, your very serious girlfriend may be able to locate all of the proper paperwork, possibly originals and possibly notarized, to convince the administrators at the hospital that she has authority concerning your care. But the onus will be on her and it will likely take time. From hospitals to schools to employee benefits, would you really feel like anticipating and dealing with everyt...
by Goldwater85
Wed Dec 06, 2023 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Private High School - worth it?
Replies: 164
Views: 28811

Re: Private High School - worth it?

The value proposition of an elite high school is just like that of an elite college.

A significantly higher percentage of your kid’s peers will go on to be successful and influential adults in your community and even nationally. A significant number of their parents already have that status. This helps set expectations (teenagers key into their peers at least as much as parents) and, along with an active alumni network, can really help your kid at all stages of their career. You’d have to gauge whether you think your child will take advantage of the networking.

I don’t see why you’d ever pay for a non-elite private school vs. a good public school.
by Goldwater85
Thu Nov 23, 2023 9:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Big Law Partnership Buy In
Replies: 15
Views: 2596

Re: Big Law Partnership Buy In

Given that you can raise the money tax-free or slightly advantaged, the only question is whether you’d borrow a significant amount at prime to invest in equities. That’s more risk than I would take with my portfolio, especially given your extremely good earning prospects.

Your brokerage account will be much fatter in ten years regardless, why waste the interest payments and exacerbate drawdowns?

Also, is it easier to deduct the interest on the bank loan as a business investment than a HELOC given that HELOCs usually have a covenant that they’ll be used for home improvements? (If you don’t take my advice)
by Goldwater85
Sat Oct 21, 2023 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming: YoutubeTV vs Philo
Replies: 40
Views: 3606

Re: Streaming: YoutubeTV vs Philo

I picked up YTTV when it was $35/mo for sports and news (where 'live' actually matters). It's annoying they keep tacking on additional channels that mainly air content you can get from streaming and keep hiking prices to pay the carriage charges. Philo has no sports and no news. Not sure why you need a traditional television solution at all if you're seriously considering them. Just optimize streaming services. We’re not big sports folks, and just get our news online. There are some channels that DW likes like AMC, HGTV, ID, and a few others. I just wonder if there aren’t streaming services like Discovery+ that pick up the content she likes. My kids don’t even get the concept there was a time when you watched whatever happened to be on giv...
by Goldwater85
Sat Oct 21, 2023 1:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Streaming: YoutubeTV vs Philo
Replies: 40
Views: 3606

Re: Streaming: YoutubeTV vs Philo

I picked up YTTV when it was $35/mo for sports and news (where 'live' actually matters). It's annoying they keep tacking on additional channels that mainly air content you can get from streaming and keep hiking prices to pay the carriage charges.

Philo has no sports and no news. Not sure why you need a traditional television solution at all if you're seriously considering them. Just optimize streaming services.
by Goldwater85
Sat Sep 09, 2023 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: More than 200,00 AmEx Membership Rewards Points
Replies: 24
Views: 4715

Re: More than 200,00 AmEx Membership Rewards Points

If you live in a city with a fair number of DIRECT domestic American flights, transfers to British Airways is a great value. I’m flying Dallas to Eagle-Vail on AA for 18,000 BA points RT during ski season. Would have been $650 or a whole lot more AA points.

BA isn’t actually great for international due to fees. Look at transfers to Etihad which has a lot of partners, Iberia (to Spain only) and others.

Hyatt (Chase partner) is the hotel with the most valuable points. Not uncoincidentally it also has the smallest footprint.
by Goldwater85
Wed Mar 29, 2023 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do I sell the business to PE or not?
Replies: 54
Views: 6611

Re: Do I sell the business to PE or not?

If they’re looking at folding you into a larger business, then staying seems less appealing. If you’re on the management team orchestrating it, that’s one thing. If you’re just implementing, it may be less pleasant. PE is all about the exit. These guys have 10-12 years to deploy capital and get a return for their investors. They do richly reward managers, especially top managers, if the exit goes well but no one makes money on the deal if it doesn’t. That said if the roll up is part of industry wide consolidation, you should seriously think about future competitive dynamics. My grandfather owned several fertilizer plants in the ‘70s and passed on rolling into Mosaic to be a large equity holder because he liked the control, things were going...
by Goldwater85
Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab brokerage margin account vs cash account
Replies: 9
Views: 925

Re: Schwab brokerage margin account vs cash account

chinchin wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:05 am Enabling margin has nothing to do with whether your broker can lend out your shares. They can do that to a cash account also.
That's most likely not true. Unless you've signed an authorization, which isn't terribly common.
by Goldwater85
Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury I-Bonds: Does the principal value reduce when we cash out I-Bonds
Replies: 22
Views: 2737

Re: Treasury I-Bonds: Does the principal value reduce when we cash out I-Bonds

I-Bonds make for a great emergency fund; that's what I use them for (largely). But as a prior poster noted, there is a 1-year lockup, so you have to roll into them strategically.
by Goldwater85
Wed Mar 15, 2023 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First time buying Tbills, new account or no?
Replies: 16
Views: 1529

Re: First time buying Tbills, new account or no?

LilyFleur wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 11:44 am I have been very lazy about investing my loose cash, and it's not a huge amount anyway. So a one-week lag wouldn't really bother me.
It depends on the term you're auto-rolling though, right? If you like 6-month T-Bills, it's a minor drag. For 4-week T-Bills, Schwab v. Fidelity is a material difference.
by Goldwater85
Tue Mar 14, 2023 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: First time buying Tbills, new account or no?
Replies: 16
Views: 1529

Re: First time buying Tbills, new account or no?

Depending on how much, Fidelity’s rollover feature is the best there is to keep reinvesting.
by Goldwater85
Tue Mar 14, 2023 9:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going to Venice: What To Do or See?
Replies: 66
Views: 5449

Re: Going to Venice: What To Do or See?

Harry’s Bar is a must for Hemingway fans. Have a $25 Montgomery or the original Bellini. Have an aperol spritz at a cafe with a view. Venice is beautiful and completely unique and everyone should see it. But you’ll wish you’d gone in the 1950s or 1930s, when it was a functioning city and not just a giant tourist trap. 4 days is ample. Totally agree that Venice is unique and fascinating, but Harry’s Bar? Would not bother even if you are a Hemingway fan. My second time in Venice I went there. It was so packed with humanity that when I opened the door I would have literally had to squeeze through others to set my first foot in the place. Turned around and left. If you envision sitting at a cozy table soaking up the atmosphere while channeling...
by Goldwater85
Sun Mar 12, 2023 10:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you regret spending money on your wedding?
Replies: 229
Views: 23271

Re: Do you regret spending money on your wedding?

My father-in-law had the financial misfortune to live in a traditional area of the country and have four daughters. So you could ask him.

I see weddings as a pact. It brings together scattered extended family from all over the country for a great party (and a few adjacent smaller ones). A different family member ends up hosting one in a different town every few years. I’d never see my cousins otherwise. In my family weddings (and funerals) are our only reunions. Yes they’re expensive but most people don’t have 4 girls to marry off. Some are a 10 piece jazz band in an iconic hotel in Savannah (my rich cousins), some are a little more modest. They’re all fun.
by Goldwater85
Sun Mar 05, 2023 8:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Going to Venice: What To Do or See?
Replies: 66
Views: 5449

Re: Going to Venice: What To Do or See?

Harry’s Bar is a must for Hemingway fans. Have a $25 Montgomery or the original Bellini. Have an aperol spritz at a cafe with a view.

Venice is beautiful and completely unique and everyone should see it. But you’ll wish you’d gone in the 1950s or 1930s, when it was a functioning city and not just a giant tourist trap. 4 days is ample.
by Goldwater85
Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Last year it was about I-bonds, now MM and T-bills -- question about BND
Replies: 39
Views: 6015

Re: Last year it was about I-bonds, now MM and T-bills -- question about BND

Bonds are contracts for payment and not rights to future cash flows. They are fundamentally different than equities. I would choose a bond strategy that makes sense for your portfolio and then feel free to allocate around it based on what’s ‘on sale’. For example, I like to hold substantially risk free fixed income with a duration of roughly two years, with some of that being cash that’s available short notice for rebalancing. I feel free to mix in T-Bills, high end munis, CDs, I Bonds, high yield savings, money markets and medium term treasuries to get to the best net return for that allocation. What I don’t do is move to a net 10-year or 3-month duration on speculation. One exception is locking in rates by opportunistically moving a porti...
by Goldwater85
Mon Feb 13, 2023 9:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spouse (Age 37) Going Back to University
Replies: 196
Views: 17351

Re: Spouse (Age 37) Going Back to University

My wife has a professional degree and marketable experience. She keeps taking jobs that are full-time, fun, easy and poorly compensated. After childcare and taxes, they’re really just hobbies.

I keep telling her that if she’s going to put a bunch of stress on the household anyway, she should at least take a job making 2x that might gradually grow to 5x. She just sets her jaw and tells me she doesn’t want the responsibility, challenge or pressure.

I don’t feel like I’m being unreasonable or asking for anything I’m not doing. But it’s go along or find the door in this scenario, and I prefer to go along.

Sounds similar to your situation except that at least my wife is a financial break even.
by Goldwater85
Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve
Replies: 20
Views: 2641

Re: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve

gavinsiu wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 5:26 pm When would you use a 30 year bond? Do people create a 30 year bond ladder to handle their retirement? I would think it would be ahrd to predict expenses for the next 30 years.
As I’ve said, I think it’s a mistake to ladder with nominals.

30 year bonds make great sense for, e.g., life insurance companies. Their liabilities are fixed in dollars. On the asset side, they can sync up a long dated bond portfolio with their actuarial tables and feel pretty good. Inflation reduces the value of their assets to the same extent it reduces their liabilities.
by Goldwater85
Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve
Replies: 20
Views: 2641

Re: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve

Once you get past the very short term, total yield is pretty flat. The difference between TIPS and nominal yields is the market’s fee for taking inflation risk. Ladders are for safety. So personally, I only ladder TIPS. A 30-year nominal guaranties payment of its $1,000 par value 30 years in the future. Whether that $1,000 buys you a decent television or a sandwich in 30 years is anybody’s guess. Thanks for the info. Regarding the market fee for inflation risk. I can see a lower yield for TIPS to have that inflation insurance. When I run the portfolio through portfolio visualizer, it appears that a TIPS portfolio out performs nomial by a bit. Do you think the market underestimate inflation? 29 year TIPS are yielding 1.35%. 30 year nominals...
by Goldwater85
Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve
Replies: 20
Views: 2641

Re: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve

gavinsiu wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:10 pm
Goldwater85 wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:48 pm If the nominal yield curve makes you nervous, why not a TIPS ladder? Real yields are pretty flat and, assuming you hold, you avoid the duration risk which makes me uncomfortable too.
I thought the TIPS yield curve approximate the nominal?

Do you mix TIPS and nomimal in the same ladder?
Once you get past the very short term, total yield is pretty flat. The difference between TIPS and nominal yields is the market’s fee for taking inflation risk.

Ladders are for safety. So personally, I only ladder TIPS. A 30-year nominal guaranties payment of its $1,000 par value 30 years in the future. Whether that $1,000 buys you a decent television or a sandwich in 30 years is anybody’s guess.
by Goldwater85
Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve
Replies: 20
Views: 2641

Re: How does one build a bond ladder when you have an inverted yield curve

If the nominal yield curve makes you nervous, why not a TIPS ladder? Real yields are pretty flat and, assuming you hold, you avoid the duration risk which makes me uncomfortable too.
by Goldwater85
Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cathedral Tour of England
Replies: 14
Views: 1625

Re: Cathedral Tour of England

If you want to see charming rather than grand, and want to avoid a car, you could ‘ramble’ all or some of the 100 mile Cotswolds Way from Stratford-upon-Avon to Bath Abbey. This area was at the heart of the wool trade centuries ago and invested its wealth building picturesque manors and villages, each with a magnificent church. Then cotton caused the bottom to fall out of its economy and it froze in time.

You can take accommodation in village inns at reasonable intervals, there are services that will drive your bags from one inn to the next.

To me, the countryside is the grandest thing about England. That and the pubs.

https://www.tripadvisor.com/Attraction_ ... gland.html
by Goldwater85
Sat Dec 10, 2022 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment in rule 506b funds under reg D
Replies: 5
Views: 517

Re: Investment in rule 506b funds under reg D

506b and 506c are just two rules providing exemptions from registering sales of securities under the Securities Act. The choice doesn’t tell you anything about how the fund is orgnanized and both exemptions can be used by operating companies just as easily.

506b is a long-standing exemption. 506c was enacted recently, to accommodate broad advertising. If anything, I’d be more leery of a 506c offering, as it implies a fund that is widely marketing to the mass affluent, as opposed to going after institutional and UHNW money.
by Goldwater85
Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Dave Ramsey Stock Portfolio: Done Boglehead Style?
Replies: 154
Views: 19890

Re: The Dave Ramsey Stock Portfolio: Done Boglehead Style?

Dave Ramsey is a real estate guy and has been since the start of his career. It’s the asset class he’s by for the most knowledgeable about and comfortable with. He lives in Nashville so I assume it’s worked out great. Dave Ramsey knows very little about equities and doesn’t particularly care. He seems to own them mainly just to fill out his tax advantaged space. What he does have is a network of FAs who pay him fees. These FAs sell mutual funds with, I assume, significant loads, which probably means American mutual funds. Despite the loads, I think his equity investing advice is a service to much of his audience. If you’ve ever heard his callers, it’s hard to imagine just turning them loose on Schwab with a general notion of building a risk...
by Goldwater85
Thu Oct 27, 2022 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renaissance's Medallion Fund
Replies: 60
Views: 7325

Re: Renaissance's Medallion Fund

If you seriously believe that the Medallion Fund has returned 39% after fees (66% annually before fees!) for over 30 years, I have a bridge to sell you -- or maybe some Bernie Madoff shares. Does anyone find it curious that their only fund that is not publicly audited has such amazing returns but all their other funds that are publicly audited have such mediocre returns? Without a public audit, the ridiculous claims mean nothing. They use these unaudited claims to rope in the suckers. It doesn’t compound at 39%. It distributes most all gains. But yeah, pretty phenomenal. It’s more about exploiting lots of small technological inefficiencies than predicting market moves though. It was audited until it kicked out all outside investors in 2014...
by Goldwater85
Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it worth pursuing a JD/MBA at 38?
Replies: 76
Views: 8121

Re: Is it worth pursuing a JD/MBA at 38?

As someone who has a unicorn role coming out of big law, and is very fortunate because of it (in house at >$300K+ with manageable hours and interesting work), I highly recommend you do not do this given your existing earning power and obligations UNLESS you can get into a compressed 3 year JD/MBA program at Northwestern or UPenn (or another top program listed below), and have a clear idea of what type of legal job you want (not a vague one). Your background could make you a strong candidate for a patent litigator/IP transactional role, but you should not commit until you’ve spoken to at least 10 attorneys in your chosen field. I explored JD/MBA seriously years back and 4 years is the standard (saving the 1 year) and again 3 years is ideal ...
by Goldwater85
Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are individual TIP bonds too cheap now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3528

Re: are individual TIP bonds too cheap now?

So I’m thinking in terms of having a lump sum at 60 that is adequate to support a 3.3% withdrawal rate. I guess I could ladder some of the fixed income portion of my portfolio out to age 70 (as far as TIPs go) but I’m not sure how to compute that. You run the very real risk of arriving at age 60 and finding that NO asset allocation will support a 3.3% withdrawal rate. Buying TIPS annually doesn’t work. If the 18-year TIPS yield is -1% in 2 years, it will just guarantee that my fixed income expected returns won’t be met. Realistically, I’d probably sell all of my TIPs at a substantial profit and go back to short term nominal bonds where my IPS has me now. If Mr. Market offers me a guaranteed loss, I’d rather just cross my fingers and wait f...
by Goldwater85
Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are individual TIP bonds too cheap now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3528

Re: are individual TIP bonds too cheap now?

So I’m thinking in terms of having a lump sum at 60 that is adequate to support a 3.3% withdrawal rate. I guess I could ladder some of the fixed income portion of my portfolio out to age 70 (as far as TIPs go) but I’m not sure how to compute that.

Buying TIPS annually doesn’t work. If the 18-year TIPS yield is -1% in 2 years, it will just guarantee that my fixed income expected returns won’t be met. Realistically, I’d probably sell all of my TIPs at a substantial profit and go back to short term nominal bonds where my IPS has me now. If Mr. Market offers me a guaranteed loss, I’d rather just cross my fingers and wait for a better offer.
by Goldwater85
Thu Oct 20, 2022 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are individual TIP bonds too cheap now?
Replies: 34
Views: 3528

Re: are individual TIP bonds too cheap now?

In terms of actionability, am I thinking about this correctly? I'm almost 40. My portfolio is allocated 70-30. I project, based on current balance and expected future contributions, that if my equities post a real return of 4.0% and my bonds post a real return of 1.0% (3.1% blended), I can retire comfortably at 60, which is my goal. If I can buy 20-year TIPS at a real yield of 2.0%, I should allocate roughly 25% of my portfolio to 20-year TIPS, leaving 5% plus future contributions available for rebalancing. Since this will be locked away in retirement accounts, and I'll have no need to sell the TIPS prior to maturity, there's no need to mark-to-market other than to apply the semi-annual inflation adjustment. Actually because a 2.0% guarante...
by Goldwater85
Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Startup Stock vs. Microsoft Stock - moving from microsoft to startup
Replies: 13
Views: 1961

Re: Startup Stock vs. Microsoft Stock - moving from microsoft to startup

Your analysis is too nuanced for a binary outcome. MSFT is offering equity as a real component of compensation. It’s variable but it’ll be worth something in a likely range. The start-up is offering you a chance for a windfall in 2-5 years. That or nothing. I have a friend who joined a start up as COO around its D round. They sold two years later and he walked away with $25 million at 37 for two years of very hard work. I know other people who’ve worked very hard for start ups and walked away with nothing but cash comp and some connections. Personally, I think rolling the dice once or twice in a career is great. I’ll risk having to work until 61 to have the chance to be independent at 37. But I’d form a realistic view about the company’s pr...
by Goldwater85
Sat Oct 15, 2022 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Orlando - Gatorland
Replies: 7
Views: 830

Re: Orlando - Gatorland

I was raised in Orlando and so was my dad (WDW wasn’t opened until he was in his late teens). Gatorland is a much older attraction than WDW, and he’s nostalgic about it. I just remember a lot of alligators and a gator wrestling exposition. I mainly recall being skeeved out when I noticed that the wooden planks supporting the walkway had been gnawed on.

I think Gatorland is like Weeki Wachee or Marineland. It has a cult following, but most people would consider it more of a roadside stop.
by Goldwater85
Mon Oct 10, 2022 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disney World: 1 or 2 day visit if worth it
Replies: 96
Views: 7977

Re: Disney World: 1 or 2 day visit if worth it

I was born and raised in Orlando and have fond memories of Disney. We live three states away but frequently do short trips with the kids. With one or two days, you can focus on Magic Kingdom which is the primary draw anyway.

Definitely pay up for lightning lanes. It seems stupid to pay what it costs for admission and then mull in line for two hours because you cheaped out on the $20 upcharge. Also, Genie+ is most valuable at the Magic Kingdom.
by Goldwater85
Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Men's Fashion -- Buy Suits or Jackets/Pants Separately?
Replies: 16
Views: 1860

Re: Men's Fashion -- Buy Suits or Jackets/Pants Separately?

In general, don’t ever mix and match suits. They are semi-formal attire (depending on the suit) and designed to be warn as a set. I do have a more casual tweed/herringbone suit, and I do sometimes where that jacket with jeans. Ditto for my cotton seersucker jacket. But I wouldn’t do it with a finer wool.

In addition to a couple of suits, pick up a couple of sport coats. They are more business casual, but you can dress them up with nice slacks (not suit pants) and wear them in just about the same contexts you’d wear a suit in the US (not in the UK). Or dress them down with jeans or whatever other pants you can find to match.
by Goldwater85
Sat Sep 17, 2022 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost
Replies: 422
Views: 35389

Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

If we are talking primary care, I don’t think it matters much. I like to have a rapport. If we are talking about a barely operable tumor rubbing against an artery, then I guess I am the rare breed who would like the most skilled surgeon available cutting on me, please. As long as he’s incentivized to get a good outcome, I don’t care if he views me as a multifaceted, sympathetic human being or a slab of meat. There’s actually some literature indicating that you are better off being viewed as a slab of meat. This is because the surgeon will find it easier to make objective risk-reward decisions in the OR. Back to the prior discussion, it’s difficult to gauge how skillful a doctor is as a layman patient. Quality of education and competitivenes...
by Goldwater85
Sat Sep 17, 2022 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost
Replies: 422
Views: 35389

Re: The primary factor for picking a College/University is out of pocket cost

Ependytis wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 11:49 am
theplayer11 wrote: Sat Sep 17, 2022 6:36 am
Blue456 wrote: Fri Sep 16, 2022 5:38 pm I can speak for myself and my wife. If you are going into medicine then pick the cheapest school. Once you are a physician nobody cares what school you went to. Better yet, go to community college and transfer to cheapest state school.
not sure if this is true. I always check the school my Drs went to in deciding who I want treating me.
I would add, I don't care if a doctor went to an Ivy League school, if they had poor reviews. I would choose a doctor that didn't go to an Ivy League school, but had good reviews.
Total aside, but physician reviews are almost entirely of bedside manner. I’ll take the surgeon who was top of his class at Johns Hopkins and is widely regarded as a smug jerk, thanks.
by Goldwater85
Mon Sep 05, 2022 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: High income physician seeking financial and life advice
Replies: 202
Views: 42781

Re: High income physician seeking financial and life advice

I am a mid 30s sub-specialized radiologist married to another subspecialty physician. We have a toddler, another on the way, and live in a MCOL region. Annual income: $1M Liquid net worth: $5.2M. Including home equity and subtracting $450k remaining mortgage, total net worth is $5.8M. —Liquid asset allocation is 95% equities and 5% bonds+cash. Of the equities, 85% is in VTSAX (total US stock market index fund), 10% is in assorted individual equities, and 5% is in VTIAX (total international stock index fund). —$215k invested 100% in VTSAX in toddler’s 529 plan. Plan to similarly aggressively fund a 529 plan for next child. —Approximately $1M of our liquid NW lies in tax-advantaged accounts; remainder (majority) lies in taxable accounts. —An...
by Goldwater85
Thu Aug 25, 2022 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why valuations don't matter much
Replies: 142
Views: 10514

Re: Why valuations don't matter much

It’s like saying that handicaps don’t matter. The horse that wins is the horse that wins.

But if a horse is a great bet at 8-1, do you still want him at 1-5? The future chance of success and risk of loss is the same in this scenario (you’ve just shifted the valuation) but is the 1-5 payout adequately compensating you for taking it? For some horses in some races, maybe there’s still adequate compensation at 1-5, but with much less margin than 8-1.

Valuation matters at the investor level. It also matters at the company level, but inversely and for different reasons.
by Goldwater85
Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium much higher when inflation exceeds 4%
Replies: 5
Views: 690

Re: Value premium much higher when inflation exceeds 4%

I suspect the direct link is less to inflation and more to implied discount rates. As discount rates rise, one becomes more likely to prefer cash flow now. Growth stocks are the ones holding out the prospect of future cash flows.
by Goldwater85
Wed Jul 20, 2022 8:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: what kind of estate lawyer do I need and how to find them
Replies: 6
Views: 1206

Re: what kind of estate lawyer do I need and how to find them

Not a lot of people really need to pay up for a well regarded estate lawyer. But you do. Depending on basis and valuation, you’re well on course to have a taxable estate with insufficient liquid assets to cover the tax bill. Separately, give some real thought to distributions before you sit down with your lawyer. He’ll have a couple of default suggestions but he doesn’t know your kids, they aren’t really his problem, and it may not be what you want. There’s no perfect way to do it. I’ve tried to accelerate lump sum distributions for children who show tangible indications that they’re acquainted with money and can handle it. Kids who don’t show that may never get their hands on a lump sum, on the theory that they’re better off with regular, ...
by Goldwater85
Thu Jul 14, 2022 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College application question for child (econ top private vs business state school)
Replies: 102
Views: 8506

Re: College application question for child (econ top private vs business state school)

Setting aside lucrative business careers since your daughter may not want to go this route.

Northwestern can open the door to other opportunities that most state schools cannot. Journalism springs to mind. Not terribly lucrative until she starts publishing and appearing on nightly shows, but it is a brutally difficult field to get into and a place like Northwestern has an inside track.

If it is comfortably affordable (which for most people it is not), I don’t think you regret providing yourself with the extra opportunity set afforded by an elite school unless it’s just a bad culture fit. I wouldn’t try to measure $ based ROI for an 18 yo tied to a specific linear outcome.