Search found 1225 matches

by Stef
Thu Apr 15, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14483
Views: 1113167

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I'm starting to believe that stocks go only up.
by Stef
Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the difference between using 3x vs 2x leveraged ETFs to achieve the same proportion of leverage?
Replies: 13
Views: 1493

Re: What is the difference between using 3x vs 2x leveraged ETFs to achieve the same proportion of leverage?

If you rebalance very often, will 75/25 VOO/UPRO, 50/50 VOO/SSO and 150 VOO (with margin) give you the same longterm result?
by Stef
Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14483
Views: 1113167

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

SP500 down, VTI up.
by Stef
Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?
Replies: 112
Views: 7063

Re: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?

So, how do you meet your goal? I'd argue that for most people, "the market" is totally adequate, as long as you can put enough in and give it enough time. The market will magically do all the rest of the work for you, and there's no need to beat it. Fact is, you are 100% guaranteed to do ...
by Stef
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?
Replies: 112
Views: 7063

Re: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?

Thank you all for your posts. Sold 45 QQQ @334.10$ Bought 71 VTI @211.98$ At least this lesson wasn't painful. Last time I sold VIOV after it underperformed VTI and made an actual loss in doing so. I calculated that if I had bought VTI instead of QQQ in the last couple of months, my avg. buying pric...
by Stef
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?
Replies: 112
Views: 7063

How to lose the desire of outperforming the market?

Hey BH community. Quick backstory: I'm 30 years old and started investing in November 2019. Had some bad luck with my timing (invested most of my assets at the peak back then), but it turned out quite fine. At the beginning I was convinced that SCV could boost my returns, so I added it right from th...
by Stef
Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33478

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

Always holding leveraged ETFs doesn't seem to work... Only holding leveraged ETFs when overnight rates are low doesn't seem to work... It starts looking like a pretty fruitless endeavour to me. Better to just stick with 1x funds. :beer Biggest issue with LETFs are the massive drawdowns. Using SMA20...
by Stef
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14483
Views: 1113167

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There is no limit. Will we see 5000 by end of this year? Should we buy leveraged ETFs? :mrgreen:
by Stef
Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33478

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

Most of you have the wrong perspective. Having the same performance as the SP500 with much higher drawdowns is great for someone that is accumulating.

OP, check this out: https://seekingalpha.com/article/422616 ... since-1928
by Stef
Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14483
Views: 1113167

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Even Charlie Munger says the next decade we can expect very little returns. https://i.imgur.com/1zP6usG.png This picture speaks a thousand words. At this point it is entirely clear to everyone this is out of whack. "You can't time the market!" seems like learned helplessness at some point...
by Stef
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone increasing international allocation?
Replies: 121
Views: 7619

Re: Anyone increasing international allocation?

I don't have fixed numbers because market cap weights are constantly changing, but I'm at 65/35 right now. It's kind of strange actually. Most people in Switzerland/Europe wouldn't invest that much into the US market. But after spending 1.5 years on Bogleheads I got concinved that the USA is supreme...
by Stef
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14483
Views: 1113167

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:46 am Sadly it was the latter 😥

Tough lesson!

It wasn’t exactly Nov 1st, last week of October sometime if I recall. Terrible decision !
So what is the plan now? Did you re-enter the market?
by Stef
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?
Replies: 104
Views: 8897

Re: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?

abuss368 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:04 am Do you also invest in international?

Tony
Yes, currently 65/35 US/ExUS.
by Stef
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?
Replies: 104
Views: 8897

Re: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?

VTI because:

1) I want to own the whole haystack.
2) I don't like actively managed indices.
by Stef
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Major International Indexes
Replies: 16
Views: 1326

Re: Major International Indexes

SP500 for US, Euro Stoxx 50 for Europe, Shanghai Composite for China and Nikkei 225 for Japan gives you 85% of the global market cap.
by Stef
Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14483
Views: 1113167

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

3990, what a time to be alive.
by Stef
Tue Mar 30, 2021 5:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market crashes. Who causes them?
Replies: 42
Views: 3781

Re: Market crashes. Who causes them?

Who sells off all the stocks that create market crashes? I have read that institutions hold around 78% of all stocks in the US market. I find it hard to believe that these professionals would panic sell enough to create an actual market crash. Yet, it seems unlikely that the remaining 22% of shares...
by Stef
Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Live Global Market Cap Tracking
Replies: 17
Views: 868

Re: Live Global Market Cap Tracking

SPDR® Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF tracks the MSCI ACWI IMI Index. The website for this ETF provides the fund geographical weightings by country as of the end of the prior business day. https://www.ssga.com/us/en/individual/etfs/funds/spdr-portfolio-msci-global-stock-market-etf-spgm Wow, ...
by Stef
Mon Mar 29, 2021 12:51 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: USD currency risk as a non-US investor
Replies: 61
Views: 4959

Re: USD currency risk as a non-US investor

I'm a Swiss with a global portfolio which is made of 63% US, 15% Switzerland, 15% Developed and 7% Emerging Markets. So my base currency is CHF with a heavy USD exposure. I should warn you that the 15% Swiss allocation will not be free of currency risk unless you own only Swiss small-caps due to Sw...
by Stef
Tue Mar 23, 2021 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?
Replies: 224
Views: 17965

Re: Why can't we have another 20 years of bull market?

Image

Probably because of that. Very high valuations driven by an extremely leveraged economy all around the world.
by Stef
Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Google sheets not pulling stock prices
Replies: 209
Views: 32388

Re: Google sheets not pulling stock prices

I never use Google Finance since their quotes are horribly delayed. I have a custom function that screenscrapes off the MarketWatch site, in my experience MW publishes prices the fastest. Also there are rendering issues with Google Sheets that sometimes get stuck in a "Loading..." state, ...
by Stef
Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years
Replies: 148
Views: 12329

Re: Investing at the very top in 2000 has still made one 7% a year over the past 21 years

I think even cooler than this is if you went from top in 2000 to low in 2020, roughly 20 years, you still made 4.67% per year, or 2.55% real. I used Portfolio Visualizer, Vanguard 500 Index Investor Shares, from April 2000 through March 2020. Probably the worst 20-year return in any of our lifetime...
by Stef
Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Emerging Markets worth it?
Replies: 75
Views: 6434

Re: Is Emerging Markets worth it?

VT is 57% US, 32% Developed-ExUS and 11% EM. That's the neutral setting. Is there something you know that the market doesn't? If no, anything that is deviating from that has to be explained with solid arguments.
by Stef
Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4414
Views: 339581

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Don't beat yourself up too much. Sometimes, such experiments are often needed to reveal what one is and is not capable of. Some can hold one asset that underperforms another for decades, and some cannot do it for a month. I do find it interesting that so many behaviorally treat the S&P 500 or T...
by Stef
Fri Mar 12, 2021 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4414
Views: 339581

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Since I sold VIOV back in 2020, it went up 100% lol. I switched to QQQ and I'm underperforming VTI again. Maybe I shouldn't tilt at all and just hold the market. I think I warned you this would happen :twisted:. I know I know! Theory is one thing, but behavioral finance something completely differe...
by Stef
Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% Stock Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 2283

Re: 100% Stock Portfolio

65% VTI
20% VEA
15% VWO
by Stef
Fri Mar 12, 2021 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4414
Views: 339581

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Since I sold VIOV back in 2020, it went up 100% lol. I switched to QQQ and I'm underperforming VTI again. Maybe I shouldn't tilt at all and just hold the market.
by Stef
Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Using Margin as Emergency Fund?
Replies: 29
Views: 2114

Re: Using Margin as Emergency Fund?

I want to revive this topic.

IBKR offers 1.5% margin loans. Why not invest my cash emergency fund into stocks and if I need anything, just take the margin loan?
by Stef
Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation
Replies: 116
Views: 10113

Re: For Those Who Are 100% US Stocks For Equity Allocation

I think this is the wrong way of looking at it, and is most definitely not the way people evaluate US investments. Diversifying across the entire market is not about reaching some target percentage of exposure to foreign earnings. That's like picking stocks based on whether the CEO is male or femal...
by Stef
Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!
Replies: 151
Views: 14552

Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Oh nice, I've waited for this thread. Currently 38% into international stocks and not regretting anything.
by Stef
Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock
Replies: 254
Views: 12131

Re: International Stock

Finally an exUS thread again after all this GME madness. The answer is always diversification. Just looking at past performance might misslead you. Why invest globally if the US outperformed for such a long time? Why invest in the whole US if tech companies outperformed for such a long time? Why inv...
by Stef
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 133891

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Lets be honest here. Chances are much higher that the OP just totally screwed up in 2020 and is lying about the whole thing being a success.

I mean why did the OP wait to post an update once markets reached a new ATH? It's just odd.
by Stef
Wed Jan 27, 2021 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1439
Views: 133891

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I think the big danger now is that you saw an example where market timing worked for you. That doesn't make success the next time any more likely than it was this time. I have a friend who did something similar. It didn't turn out nearly as well. Timing the market and being wrong is bad, but being ...
by Stef
Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4557
Views: 228902

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Shareprice only has to go up to 35k to surpass Apples market cap.
by Stef
Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4557
Views: 228902

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

+110% pre market.

Wth is happening? So much for efficient markets lol.
by Stef
Wed Jan 27, 2021 1:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic
Replies: 170
Views: 16068

Re: Rebalancing into stocks when they fall is unrealistic

Any update from OP? Did you sell stocks? Did you get divorced?
by Stef
Fri Jan 22, 2021 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who or what has helped the most in your financial journey?
Replies: 121
Views: 7386

Re: Who or what has helped the most in your financial journey?

- Finanzfluss (a German youtuber)
- Ben Felix (a Canadian youtuber)
- Mustachianpost (a Swiss forum about FIRE and investing)
- Bogleheads
by Stef
Thu Jan 21, 2021 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 806
Views: 124261

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

You either analyze it in real or nominal terms.

665'381$ / 40'000$ = 16.6 years
1'028'828$ / 61'849$ = 16.6 years
by Stef
Thu Jan 21, 2021 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14483
Views: 1113167

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Made a mistake this week. Money transfer of monthly savings rate was delayed by a day, so couldn't buy QQQ at 314$ on Tuesday. Now it just keeps rising and already at 326$ lol. Not that it matters, but spending 48$ more just feels wrong. Still waiting to see 314$ again :oops:

Stocks go only up.
by Stef
Thu Jan 21, 2021 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 806
Views: 124261

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Read it again. 1M shrunk down to 665k inflation-adjusted. In reality the portfolio is at 1M nominal by end of 2020.
by Stef
Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?
Replies: 118
Views: 5863

Re: Do you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

There's nothing efficient about misinterpreting a tweet because you're a Musk fanboy and your investment method consists of leaps of faith. These people didn't conduct any research. They didn't value the fundamentals. They are sick gamblers that enjoy the colors of confetti on their robinhood app w...
by Stef
Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation when you have exceeded your number
Replies: 46
Views: 4306

Re: Asset allocation when you have exceeded your number

If you think about living for another 40-50 years, you need a more aggressive AA than the usual retirement portfolios IMO. 70/30 would give you ~15 years in "risk free" assets.
by Stef
Wed Jan 20, 2021 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Bubble
Replies: 46
Views: 4815

Re: Investing in a Bubble

There is no euphoria today, quite the contrary. There are just no alternatives to stocks. I would call it desperation.
by Stef
Mon Jan 18, 2021 2:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is dollar cost averaging discouraged?
Replies: 60
Views: 3480

Re: Why is dollar cost averaging discouraged?

I think there are different kinds of risks here. I'm very comfortable maintaining 90/10 AA. I'm not comfortable lump summing 1M. Call it market timing if you will, but my psychology is very important to me. So what if you DCA into a rising market only to experience a major crash afterwards? Your co...
by Stef
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why is dollar cost averaging discouraged?
Replies: 60
Views: 3480

Re: Why is dollar cost averaging discouraged?

If you are really honest to yourself, DCA is pure market timing. If you want to reduce risk, you choose the right AA. DCA will just shift your problem of "stocks being too risky right now" into the near future.
by Stef
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Continue to DCA?
Replies: 29
Views: 2148

Re: Should I Continue to DCA?

Stocks go only up if you zoom out far enough. The SP500 was at 2800 3 years, today it's at 3800 despite 2 bear markets (-20% by end of 2018 and -33%% in March 2020). The longer you DCA the more you'll miss in returns: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/gif_dca_perf_time_sw_60.gi...
by Stef
Mon Jan 18, 2021 1:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much time do you spend on [personal finance] weekly?
Replies: 49
Views: 4574

Re: how much time do you spend on [personal finance] weekly?

~2 hours per day including spending time on forums like Bogleheads. Not because it's nessesary, it's just for fun.
by Stef
Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?
Replies: 307
Views: 25258

Re: What are your Lean FIRE, FIRE, and Fat FIRE numbers?

Lean Fire: 60k / 1500k net worth
Fire: 100k / 2500k net worth
Fat Fire: 200k / 5000k net worth

Lean fire are my current expenses. Fire is the way I would like to live and fat fire is the way I would live with xx millions in assets (at some point I wouldn't spend more).
by Stef
Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Regrets postponing retirement too long?
Replies: 171
Views: 15584

Re: Regrets postponing retirement too long?

Thanks OP for this thread.

People often tell me that in pursuing FIRE I'll regret that I didn't enjoy life the way I could. But those people will be the ones that work till 67-70 and I'll be having a great time 15 years before they retire.