Search found 35 matches

by BlueMoonXD
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Roth vs Traditional, all else being equal, should be a wash, right?
Replies: 28
Views: 2400

Re: Roth vs Traditional, all else being equal, should be a wash, right?

There's also a matter that since you're using after-tax money to contribute to Roth, if you're maxing it out, you're actually contributing more to a Roth. $6,000 after tax is > $6,000 before tax. I'd love some more discussion on this point, because it's something that's always seemed significant to...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Jul 01, 2021 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in taxable
Replies: 80
Views: 8169

Re: Bonds in taxable

We had tax exempt bonds in taxable during the financial crisis. We had that pool of dry powder available to rebalance back into stocks. In hindsight that worked very well. Really one of the best argument for bonds in taxable in my opinion. A big logistical frustration with taxable accounts is the i...
by BlueMoonXD
Sat Jun 26, 2021 2:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Another Emergency Fund Question: Do I Need One Anymore?
Replies: 84
Views: 6741

Re: Another Emergency Fund Question: Do I Need One Anymore?

tl;dr--I think the question is "how much cash should I keep on hand" not "do I need an emergency fund?" I'm not sure I fully appreciate the distinction between these two things that folks are making in this thread. My EF is the cash I keep on hand. My checking account is just a ...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Jun 24, 2021 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When Can We Stop Contributing to Retirement Funds
Replies: 38
Views: 4957

Re: When Can We Stop Contributing to Retirement Funds

Agree with others that it's a bit unclear what the discussion here is about. With respect to the original framing of the question, I think there is never a good reason to stop contributing to 401k/IRA, even if one is planning for early retirement. One of the primary ways in which people fund early r...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is 0% bonds appropriate?
Replies: 320
Views: 23460

Re: When is 0% bonds appropriate?

I'm in my late 20s with a 10% bond allocation. When I was deciding my AA, I found a lot of the arguments about risk-adjusted return and the other forms of non-market risk (unemployment, illness, injury, etc) to be compelling enough to make me feel comfortable with this choice. I also feel that a 90/...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 253
Views: 59372

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

As a side note I'll also say I don't really understand the strategy of VTSAX + VTWAX. If you want to own the total world, then just buy that. I think VTSAX+VTWAX as a permanent allocation doesn't make sense, but if it's a "transitional" allocation, then it makes sense. Essentially, start ...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Jun 23, 2021 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 253
Views: 59372

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

I have a similar question to this. My taxable is currently 100% VTSAX but I've thought about diversifying it a bit. Not in a rush to get to this money as I do not foresee a need for at least 10 years but not sure I want to keep it all in VTSAX. With that said, is it better to rebalance what is in t...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 253
Views: 59372

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

I agree this is a dead horse that has been well and truly beaten at this point. I will just say that as a younger person with an investment horizon of 50+ years, and as someone who has lurked a lot of these threads - I find the rationale for a VTWAX or VTSAX + VTIAX approach to be a lot more compell...
by BlueMoonXD
Tue Apr 13, 2021 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your definition of "Family Money"?
Replies: 47
Views: 5867

Re: What's your definition of "Family Money"?

When I think of the term family money, I picture people living off trust funds. Not having to work But in actuality it’s probably much less than that and likely describes myself. (Always had the safety net of my parents, college fully funded. Help with my first down payment. Then married my wife wh...
by BlueMoonXD
Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9674

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

I feel as though this article and the discussion here are missing an aspect of passive investing that to me has always been the main attraction -- which is that it's a braindead easy strategy to execute. I don't think it's ever been the case that index investing is the best performing strategy in ab...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Jan 27, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4731
Views: 269612

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

so after the GME squeeze is over, GME is guaranteed to drop big, like 90%? I think just about everyone realizes that. The debate is over who is left holding the bag when the longs liquidate. The longs think the shorts will once they need to cover. The shorts think they will once the longs waiver an...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comfortable holding ITOT and/or SCHB “forever” ?
Replies: 6
Views: 740

Re: Comfortable holding ITOT and/or SCHB “forever” ?

Short answer -- Yes. The difference between these funds is extremely negligible, both in terms of expenses and holdings. If you prefer to keep it simple and stick with all Vanguard funds that's perfectly fine, but IMO there's no real reason to treat ITOT or SCHB differently. If the TLH benefits are ...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying only top 10 S&P500 companies every year
Replies: 56
Views: 4318

Re: Buying only top 10 S&P500 companies every year

I love that because this is Bogleheads, someone actually did the legwork for OP of creating a backtest which confirms the consensus in the thread, which is that indeed this strategy will sell high and buy low. For a while, the “dogs of the Dow” was popular in the press. The idea was similar, except ...
by BlueMoonXD
Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conditional rebalancing into stocks using VIX
Replies: 27
Views: 1252

Re: Conditional rebalancing into stocks using VIX

Riskiness is a nebulous concept with no one agreed upon technical definition. However, if you use volatility (which does have a well defined technical definition) as a proxy for risk, it is well established that volatility tends to increase dramatically as stocks crash. Stock price movements have f...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I know we can "Stay the course," but.......
Replies: 8
Views: 1793

Re: I know we can "Stay the course," but.......

We are extremely fortunate. Though probably in the middle in terms of assets (assuming a fairly large standard deviation), we have "won the game" when considering our expenditures, assets, SS and a pension that meets approximately 30% or so of our expenditures. We have essentially been sa...
by BlueMoonXD
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I need some (honest) reassurance of my portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2819

Re: I need some (honest) reassurance of my portfolio

So what is everyone else on this board doing if a target retirement fund is perfectly good? How come I see so few people here talking about them? Surely I can do better than a set it and forget it approach. Maybe something more tailored for the time. It seems a lot of people are making calculated m...
by BlueMoonXD
Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Save Me! Sell or Dont Sell? Take some losses?
Replies: 15
Views: 1108

Re: Save Me! Sell or Dont Sell? Take some losses?

Thanks. Yes, you are correct that the TLH piece sounds reasonable, sitting on that sell is a bit less reasonable, BUT if it calms me a bit, perhaps that's good? Guess I feel MORE worried about that international stock piece than my total stock piece. Keep the comments coming. If not being calm will...
by BlueMoonXD
Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Wouldn't Day Trading do well in this environment?
Replies: 47
Views: 3338

Re: Wouldn't Day Trading do well in this environment?

If you are describing sophisticated algorithmic trading, then yes I'm sure that type of activity occurs every day in good and bad markets, and I could believe that those types of trading firms thrive on volatility. But those are folks who pay big dollars to have nanosecond latency to the exchanges a...
by BlueMoonXD
Fri Mar 13, 2020 8:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Still a fan of small value?
Replies: 97
Views: 4879

Re: Still a fan of small value?

I've personally never understood the fixation with with SCV. I find that it is often not consistently defined, and to the extent that it is, it feels to me like a fairly arbitrary investing decision, but to each their own. Folks can tilt towards whatever they'd like -- green energy, tech, companies ...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?
Replies: 6
Views: 12380

Re: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?

Thank you. So just to confirm with folks here before I move forward. If I have the following lots (simplified): SCHB: Lot A - June 2016 Lot B - June 2017 Lot C - June 2018 Lot D - June 2019 Lot E - Mar 2020 If I sell Lots C, D, and E but not Lot A or B -- would I ensure that I avoided any wash sale ...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving against a multi-month downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 2959

Re: Moving against a multi-month downturn

From reading your responses in this thread, it's pretty clear that whether you are right or wrong in this particular case, your psychology is going to cause you financial harm in the long term if you do not force yourself to stay the course. You speak with an irrational confidence about unknowable m...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?
Replies: 6
Views: 12380

Re: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?

I'm not a tax person, so don't rely on my advice. But my understanding is that wash sale rules only apply to replacement shares purchased 30 days before or after the sale. If you sell your entire position and don't buy it back, there can't be a wash sale. I believe VTI and SCHB track slightly diffe...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving against a multi-month downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 2959

Re: Moving against a multi-month downturn

Have you considered one of the other 20 or so threads on the topic? Few here are going to endorse market timing and gambling on a sense that you have some unique insight. Every other investor is seeing and reading the same news you are. But it's your money. If you know the future, go for it. And I'l...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help! I think I screwed up...
Replies: 15
Views: 1980

Re: Help! I think I screwed up...

You're 28 years old with one and a half million dollars in savings, with another 900k coming. You're going to be in amazing shape either way. Personally, I don't think it's worth agonizing over your current mis-allocation and locking in losses now to correct for prior misjudgements. At this point I ...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?
Replies: 6
Views: 12380

Bought within last 30 days -- can I TLH?

Hi there folks. I apologize for yet another TLH thread, but I want to make sure I understand correctly before I do anything. Here's my situation, I regularly invest in SCHB and have lots ranging from 2016 to this week. I have purchased 2 lots in the last 30 days -- one was a regular investment, and ...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help a millennial stick to his IPS
Replies: 25
Views: 1964

Re: Help a millennial stick to his IPS

Hi all. It’s Wednesday night. My AA is 85:15. Anyways, it sure seems that the market is going to continue to crash and burn. By selling everything and then slowly buying back in over the next 6 months, I think I stand to do better than if I just held on for the ride. It’s like this: I’m quite sure ...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying in this downturn
Replies: 5
Views: 916

Re: Buying in this downturn

I plan to slowly increase my stock allocation as the market keeps tanking (if it does) . I was thinking something like: 10% drop: 44%, -20% : 48%, -30% : 54%, -40%: 60%, -50%: 70% stock allocation and so on. Is this a reasonable way of increasing my stock allocation (I understand that this is marke...
by BlueMoonXD
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?
Replies: 52
Views: 3245

Re: Ok, I'll ask it... temporarily getting out of the market with a small % of portfolio?

Lol you guys are so harsh. I didn't suggest that I need your permission that's ridiculous, I'm asking if others here think it's a bet with above 50% odds. This is a forum full of folks who don't trust their own judgement about what the market is or isn't likely to do. Why would you trust any of us ...
by BlueMoonXD
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing early in fearful times
Replies: 17
Views: 1269

Re: Rebalancing early in fearful times

So wait... are you saying the idea of timing the market a bit with bond rebalancing isnt that bad? What if I wait to see if the market goes down further, and if it does, move my bonds in my 401k to VTI within my 401k, in essence "buying" those stocks at a low. Is that bad? Can anyone chim...
by BlueMoonXD
Wed Oct 09, 2019 4:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mega Backdoor Roth or Taxable?
Replies: 5
Views: 914

Re: Mega Backdoor Roth or Taxable?

If you have access to the mega backdoor Roth it seems advantageous to use it. You can withdraw the rollover contributions if needed, and in the meantime you will have the benefit of being able to adjust allocations as needed without concern for taxable events. If you have significant retirement savi...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?
Replies: 101
Views: 7612

Re: 'Stay the course' with international stock but give up on value?

That's my exact concern. Some seem to be talking out of both sides of their mouth, condoning that investors abandon their value tilt while advocating that they 'stay the course' when it comes to international holdings, likely on the basis of whether the one providing the advice personally 'likes' i...
by BlueMoonXD
Sat Sep 28, 2019 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review for a young investor
Replies: 14
Views: 1681

Re: Portfolio review for a young investor

Thank you to all for the comments. I am planning to move forward with this allocation, and I've started selling the positions as outlined previously. To address some suggestions/concerns that were raised: SIMPLIFY. The fewer and the broader the funds the better. I highly recommend the 3 fund portfol...
by BlueMoonXD
Fri Sep 27, 2019 5:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review for a young investor
Replies: 14
Views: 1681

Re: Portfolio review for a young investor

Thanks for the feedback so far. I've decided to tweak my target asset allocation a bit, to the following: Domestic - 55% International - 25% (still maintaining the approx 1/3rd international allocation to emerging markets) REITs - 10% Bonds - 10% I decided to increase the allocation to REITs to 10% ...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Sep 26, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review for a young investor
Replies: 14
Views: 1681

Re: Portfolio review for a young investor

Thanks for the comments, that's helpful. I'd like to maintain an aggressive allocation, especially since I am comfortable keeping a larger emergency fund, but I think it may be appropriate to raise the bond allocation higher that I currently have it. It feels like younger investors either go 100% eq...
by BlueMoonXD
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review for a young investor
Replies: 14
Views: 1681

Portfolio review for a young investor

Hi folks, I've been lurking around here for a little bit and this forum has been a tremendous resource, and gotten me really interested in taking more active control of my finances. I want to thank everyone who freely contributes such detailed and useful analysis, it has made diving into self-direct...