Search found 73 matches

by Ray_McKigney
Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planning a long backpacking trip w/ 2 nights in Vegas, recommendations? (Zion Nat'l Park, Yosemite, Grand Canyon)
Replies: 60
Views: 4652

Re: Planning a long backpacking trip w/ 2 nights in Vegas, recommendations? (Zion Nat'l Park, Yosemite, Grand Canyon)

Something to keep in mind is that rental car agreements usually specify that you cannot take the rental car off of paved roads. A concern is that if you are in an accident when you are on a dirt or gravel road that no car insurance would cover you since you were in violation of the rental agreement...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Subarus so popular?
Replies: 114
Views: 6231

Re: Why are Subarus so popular?

Subarus are overrated in my opinion. Their overall performance, reliability, safety features and aesthitics are not particulary noteworthy compared to other brands. That nifty all wheel drive thing they have going on is a dime a dozen now. Subaru owners remind me a lot of Volvo drivers from the 80'...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Mar 29, 2021 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Subarus so popular?
Replies: 114
Views: 6231

Re: Why are Subarus so popular?

As soon as I became interested in a Subaru, I started "seeing" them everywhere. Confirmation bias at work. I bought a Forester and, so far, am very happy with it. I'm a very tall driver who loves the mountains and the desert. I'm not aware of another car that checks all three of these boxe...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 24, 2021 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planning a long backpacking trip w/ 2 nights in Vegas, recommendations? (Zion Nat'l Park, Yosemite, Grand Canyon)
Replies: 60
Views: 4652

Re: Planning a long backpacking trip with a night or two in Vegas, recommendations?

These are the trailheads we got on the permit: Entry Date: 06/27/2021 Entry Trailhead: Happy Isles->Illilouette Exit Date: 07/02/2021 Exit Trailhead: Happy Isles->Illilouette If the YARTS bus is running and you don't mind using it this year, you could hike to Toulomne Meadows or even Mammoth Lakes ...
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planning a long backpacking trip w/ 2 nights in Vegas, recommendations? (Zion Nat'l Park, Yosemite, Grand Canyon)
Replies: 60
Views: 4652

Re: Planning a long backpacking trip with a night or two in Vegas, recommendations?

Sounds like you are already planning to drive from Vegas to Fresno on the freeways, but the more scenic route is over Tioga Pass, down through Mammoth Mountain, Bishop, and Independence, then over through Death Valley and in to Vegas. Would make for a long day that folks may not be up for but if th...
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planning a long backpacking trip w/ 2 nights in Vegas, recommendations? (Zion Nat'l Park, Yosemite, Grand Canyon)
Replies: 60
Views: 4652

Re: Planning a long backpacking trip with a night or two in Vegas, recommendations?

Got advance permit reservations? Any particular reason you want to backpack in Yosemite? Imo, the highlight of Yosemite is the Valley, but that’s not a great backpacking destination. The Southern (and Central) Sierra beat Yosemite for backpacking and they’re much closer to Vegas. Eastside trailheads...
by Ray_McKigney
Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are low interest rates the only reason the Shiller PE ratio is so high?
Replies: 18
Views: 1539

Re: Are low interest rates the only reason the Shiller PE ratio is so high?

I doubt low rates are the only reason.

I'm guessing that the moral hazard created by multiple Fed interventions has something to do with it.
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Mar 11, 2021 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

A short claim (6 to 9 months) is usually all it takes to re-coup everything you paid in premium. The best quote my 49 year-old self and my 53 year-old wife have received is a monthly premium that equals 10% of the monthly benefit. 3% inflation rider and 90-day elimination period. A 9 month claim, t...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Florida enacted the Rate Stability Regulation on January 13th, 2003. Mutual of Omaha has had ZERO rate increases on policies sold in Florida since 1/13/2003. "The California Department of Insurance (CDI) has rate increase history reports (Excel file versions) that are reported by the respectiv...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 10, 2021 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Florida enacted the Rate Stability Regulation on January 13th, 2003. Mutual of Omaha has had ZERO rate increases on policies sold in Florida since 1/13/2003. "The California Department of Insurance (CDI) has rate increase history reports (Excel file versions) that are reported by the respectiv...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 10, 2021 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

...My personal experiences with scrambling around to take care of my mother who had a long goodbye of 11 years, the more recent scrambling with my MIL for a short but difficult home care in our house and later at a care home, and my current scrambling around for BIL's eventual long goodbye in LTC -...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

That's half-true. Some will get back less than they paid in premiums. Some will get considerably more than they paid in premiums. That's how insurance works. It's called risk-pooling. You missed the bold underlined words. "And, for full disclosure, if you need care it is much more likely than ...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

...My personal experiences with scrambling around to take care of my mother who had a long goodbye of 11 years, the more recent scrambling with my MIL for a short but difficult home care in our house and later at a care home, and my current scrambling around for BIL's eventual long goodbye in LTC -...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 10, 2021 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

And, for full disclosure, if you need care it is much more likely than not that your costs will be less than the premiums you have paid in all along... That's half-true. Some will get back less than they paid in premiums. Some will get considerably more than they paid in premiums. That's how insura...
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Mar 09, 2021 1:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: *WHEN* did long-term care insurance prices spike?
Replies: 67
Views: 5307

Re: *WHEN* did long-term care insurance prices spike?

My wife and I have had our LTCi policies (with 3% inflation riders) for 5 years now with no increases in premiums. Five years is a short time. We went a long time with no premium increases. But there have been several large increases in the last few years, and the insurance company has said that th...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Whether LTCi is worth the expense depends on a lot of things: How easily can you cash flow a lot (>4 years) of LTC if you or your partner need it? For that matter how easily can you cash flow > 90 days? How likely, given your current health and family history, are you or your partner to need a lot ...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Mar 08, 2021 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

If you're considering LTCi, you might want to check with your state's Insurance Department. Ours (CA) has a fairly comprehensive annual guide (including inflation projections (currently 5%) and Provider's rate increase histories):

http://www.insurance.ca.gov/0150-senior ... gtermcare/
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Mar 04, 2021 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How long would you back a losing horse, to Stay The Course?
Replies: 167
Views: 11365

Re: How long would you back a losing horse, to Stay The Course?

If you believe that a pro-SCV bandwagon has bid up prices and eroded the premium, consider the possibility that you may now be on an anti-SCV bandwagon that has effectively reinstated the premium.

Both are merely theories.
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 03, 2021 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21856

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

Got my first job in 2010 and have saved about half my income every year. Have been more diligent with investing the last six or seven years. Thanks. How are you arriving at your "5x" conclusion? Can you show the specific numbers you're using and your backtest results? Compare 100/0 and 60...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21856

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

I have an additional 5X years of living expenses because of the gains of being 100/0 over my investment career compared to if I had been 60/40. That's a lot! What period = your investment career? What specific portfolios are you using in your comparison? Got my first job in 2010 and have saved abou...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21856

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

Looking at my whole investment career, I’m already 5 to 10 X ahead of where I would be if I hadn’t been 100% equities How long have you been investing and what are you comparing your numbers to? I’d like to see an illustration of how a 100/0 portfolio results in a dollar amount that is 5 to 10 time...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 03, 2021 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21856

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

Looking at my whole investment career, I’m already 5 to 10 X ahead of where I would be if I hadn’t been 100% equities How long have you been investing and what are you comparing your numbers to? I’d like to see an illustration of how a 100/0 portfolio results in a dollar amount that is 5 to 10 time...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 21856

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

Cognitive dissonance says I can either (a) judge 100/0 investors as “crazy” or (b) consider them rational and deal with my own envy and regret for not having enough courage to follow their path.

So they’re “crazy.” :D
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Mar 03, 2021 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Perhaps it's already been said in this thread, but pricing information about policies acquired years ago isn't very relevant (imo) to one's decision to purchase LTCi now or in the future. The only relevant information is from policies that are being offered now. Last month I received three quotes. T...
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Mar 02, 2021 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

The best quote I received was from Scott Olson.

www.ltcshop.com
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Mar 02, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

A friend’s wife was diagnosed with a condition requiring her to enter assisted living with the highest level of support. The cost is $10,000/month. Sobering for those looking to self-insure. I agree that’s sobering. But what’s also sobering to me is the $700 monthly premium my 53 year-old wife and ...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 418
Views: 20905

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

A friend’s wife was diagnosed with a condition requiring her to enter assisted living with the highest level of support. The cost is $10,000/month. Sobering for those looking to self-insure. I agree that’s sobering. But what’s also sobering to me is the $700 monthly premium my 53 year-old wife and ...
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Feb 16, 2021 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A very basic explanation of "investment horizon"
Replies: 28
Views: 1763

Re: A very basic explanation of "investment horizon"

Thanks vineviz.

Your last example seems to partially address a question I've been wanting to ask.

Next year I plan to retire at age 50; for planning purposes I expect to live to age 90. What should my investment horizon be if, starting at age 70, 100% of my expenses are funded by SS and pension?
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Feb 16, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 to 3 Million Dollar Windfall - How to enter market
Replies: 61
Views: 6461

Re: 2 to 3 Million Dollar Windfall - How to enter market

Rather, one should keep one's emotions in the forefront of one's consciousness as one decides whether to lump sum or DCA, and once one does this, one will see that the rational thing to do is to DCA -- or, at any rate, this will be so for the people for whom, all else equal, losses hurt much more t...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 to 3 Million Dollar Windfall - How to enter market
Replies: 61
Views: 6461

Re: 2 to 3 Million Dollar Windfall - How to enter market

Dollar cost averaging is one of the things I do to make compromises between my rational self and my emotional self. Too often, the power of human emotion is poo-pooed around here. I agree with the second sentence. Things that would take an emotional toll on me: Holding cash, DCA'ing, watching marke...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2 to 3 Million Dollar Windfall - How to enter market
Replies: 61
Views: 6461

Re: 2 to 3 Million Dollar Windfall - How to enter market

OP, say you received these payments not in the form of cash, but in the form of diversified stocks and bonds that, after receiving them, left you with exactly your desired portfolio and asset allocation? In this case, would you sell the portion of stocks and bonds that you just received and DCA back...
by Ray_McKigney
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My IPS Says It's Time for Tactical AA
Replies: 30
Views: 2767

Re: My IPS Says It's Time for Tactical AA

Why base it solely on CAPE10 with no consideration of bond yields and risk premium?
by Ray_McKigney
Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Your assets are much larger than the maximum possible benefit of this policy. So I'm curious why you are considering buying it rather than just paying for any LTC expenses you may encounter since you easily could. I'm arriving at that conclusion and expect my wife to agree. I needed to do some rese...
by Ray_McKigney
Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

The benefits look reasonable, but you are both rather young to purchase LTCi now. Thanks. It's nice to be told we're young. :) Looking to retire between now and 12 months from now, so I'm trying to at least know what we potential liabilities we might be facing in the future. I know we need a PLAN -...
by Ray_McKigney
Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Thank you again Silk for referring me to Scott Olson. Ages: Me 49 / DW 53 $4,200 monthly maximum per spouse / $750,000 lifetime maximum (one spouse can use up to 2/3 of this) 3% inflation rider Combined Monthly Premium: $418 How's this look? Thanks. You would be paying $5,016 per year, more than a ...
by Ray_McKigney
Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Thank you again Silk for referring me to Scott Olson.

Ages: Me 49 / DW 53

$4,200 monthly maximum per spouse / $750,000 lifetime maximum (one spouse can use up to 2/3 of this)

3% inflation rider

Combined Monthly Premium: $418

How's this look?

Thanks.
by Ray_McKigney
Fri Feb 12, 2021 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

With your level of assets, I would consider you self-insured when it comes to long-term care. That is, odds are that you will very likely have enough money to pay for whatever care is needed, if any. That being said, still worth crunching the numbers to see if you want to purchase coverage. Best op...
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Silk McCue wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:57 pm
Ray_McKigney wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:45 pm Can you recommend one, please? Thanks.
We used Scott Olson for our policies. Very knowledgeable and professional. You can simply Google his name with LTCI and find him.

Cheers
Thanks Silk. Just called him and left him a voicemail.
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

WoW2012 wrote: Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:38 pmFind a better broker.
Any recommendations to specific brokers?

Thanks.
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

The broker and Accuquote are both quoting the exact same company. Find an agent who can shop and compare policies for you, not just give you quotes from one company. The first broker I spoke with said that she worked with three providers of LTCI in California and provided me with quotes from two of...
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Feb 11, 2021 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Thanks JoeRetire. Just called AccuQuote and spoke to a LTCI specialist. Quotes are for DW and I combined and include 3% compound inflation adjustment. $5,000 month / $180,000 pool Monthly Premium w/ 90-day elimination period (EP): $348 Monthly Premium w/ 365-day EP (max available): $331 Given that t...
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Can you recommend one, please? Thanks.
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Feb 11, 2021 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 209
Views: 8255

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

Hope you don't mind if I revive this thread. Seems that the LCTI discussion could use more actual quotes. Just received a quote from a broker for a "traditional" LTCI policy from an insurer who "provides the lowest rates in California." Ages: Me 49 / DW 53 Underwriting Class: Me ...
by Ray_McKigney
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did my 401K plan thwart my Mega backdoor or was I given incorrect info? Company match, really?! (RESOLVED-UPDATE!)
Replies: 16
Views: 1882

Re: Did my 401K plan thwart my Mega backdoor or was I given incorrect info? Company match, really?!

Call back and ask to speak to a rollover specialist. On the subject of in-service withdrawals and rollovers, I know firsthand that there’s at least one Fidelity rep who isn’t afraid to say “I’m not sure, I’ll find out,” another who knows what he’s talking about, and a third rep who doesn’t know what...
by Ray_McKigney
Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are NNN Leases worth it?
Replies: 65
Views: 4573

Re: Are NNN Leases worth it?

We own a property NNN leased to a national restaurant chain with hundreds of locations. The restaurant closed down with COVID and the parent company has no plans to re-open the property. They are still paying their lease, but are negotiating the terms of a discounted buyout with our attorneys, with...
by Ray_McKigney
Sat Feb 06, 2021 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If I can afford major risk, is a 100% stock position the best return
Replies: 100
Views: 8803

Re: If I can afford major risk, is a 100% stock position the best return

We could afford to lose 50% or more of our net worth without changing our lifestyle or goals. I could, too. But for me, financial affordability isn't the only consideration. My psychological willingness is important. And while my hubris might fool me into confidently knowing what it is, the truth i...
by Ray_McKigney
Thu Feb 04, 2021 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 450
Views: 29237

Re: The Power of Working Longer

But I really want to do a long-distance thru-hike of either the Appalachian Trail or the Pacific Crest Trail, perhaps even both. Same here. It’s very likely I’ll be hiking the PCT in 2022, when I’m 50. I hiked the JMT in 2010 and since then have been backpacking at least 40 days a year. The other d...
by Ray_McKigney
Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Home Renovation - Where to hold $$ for one year?
Replies: 12
Views: 901

Re: Home Renovation - Where to hold $$ for one year?

OP's getting a $100,000+ bonus and has a $50,000 cash need in one year. OP also holds bonds in their investment portfolio. What if OP put the entire $100,000+ bonus in stocks in a taxable account? If stocks drop 50% in a year and this $100,000 is reduced to $50,000, OP: 1. Sells the $50,000 of stock...