Bogleheads.org

Chicken Little

This is great.

I have no stake in this, and don't mind that at all.

I just love the fact that they're rubbing everybody's nose in it.

Hope it goes to the moon.

Chicken Little

AA-juggling market timing. That's where I fall apart, with tactical rebalancing. At least it's on a solid platform, and it's over a range of pretty acceptable assets allocations, mostly from 60/40 to 40/60. I make a point to never recommend that, be clear that I'm not trying to come out ahead of an...

Chicken Little

I’m totally boring. I do however have some Vanguard Wellington, which I believe is actively managed. Other than that, it’s all just things like VSMGX, VTSAX, and BND. Whoops, caught myself in a lie, as I have a little Wellesley in taxable. Our taxable investing is relatively new, so conditioned to ...

Chicken Little

Thanks Taylor.

Chicken Little

Apologies for not being clearer.

My English is broken (native speaker, too). Leave me behind, save yourself.

Chicken Little

JoMoney wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:11 am I find it interesting that Savings Bonds and CD's disqualify one from this "boring investor" category.

Opposite.

Made allowance for other boring fixed income (I have both I-bonds and CDs).

Chicken Little

I disagree with your assessment of "boring." I'd say you could easily own a couple of hundred active mutual funds, trade them out every year or two, and still be boring. Do so much as consider buying one property though and you'll have to turn in your "boring" credentials. Agree...

Chicken Little

livesoft wrote: ↑Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:36 am I check all 10 boxes.

I knew I was in good company!

Chicken Little

Besides me, who only holds "regular" index funds in a bland, buy-hold-rebalance strategy anymore? Just curious. Talking about stocks and bonds in funds, not other fixed income (I-bonds, CDs etc.) or real estate. More-or-less the equivalent philosophy of a three fund, plain old long, but al...

Chicken Little

For the record, I buy stock every two weeks (a lot, on a personally relative basis), and am about to put in a big lump sum order that is 100% equity.

I never understood the connection between having to play the game, and having to like it?

If (if) this unravels, is everybody still going to like it?

Chicken Little

So you're saying you don't care if the United States government is the market maker in equity trading? I, for one, don't believe you. I'm not sure why don't believe me. I'm a retired Australian citizen who lives in Vietnam. Why do I care? You haven't actually offered me any reason I should. Has som...

Chicken Little

What are YOU going to say when they buy equity ETFs next time I'm not going to say anything. Why should I care? So you're saying you don't care if the United States government is the market maker in equity trading? I, for one, don't believe you. Here's Japan ... The bank in November became the bigg...

Chicken Little

This isn’t about “fighting the Fed” in any traditional sense. There’s a clear distinction here, and that is about changing the rules of the game. It’s not that they were never changed before, gold standard is a good example. It’s that each crisis engenders a response with new rules. You can’t say s...

Chicken Little

They kept TIAA Traditional and Real Estate, which are widely regarded as unique funds worth considering. Handling TIAA Traditional seems a little tricky. If you transfer balances from a TIAA Traditional legacy contract (RA, SRA, GRA, GSRA) to the new RC and RCP accounts, you lose the 3% minimum gua...

Chicken Little

... The important thing here, obviously, is not to go all-in or all-out. I am always fully invested, and simply rotate stock-to-bond and back, accordingly . Not trying to beat anybody. .... No one can say for certain if there will be a crash, or when. What we can say with certainty is that if there...

Chicken Little

If anybody wants to disagree, I’ll ask the same question...Why not hit fast forward and take the S&P to 10,000?

Won’t we all be better off?

Chicken Little

From Ben Carson: November 13, 2020: Legendary investor is certain we’re in a bubble (Business Insider) December 27, 2019: U.S. stock market is a bubble (Forbes) April 5, 2018: ‘Epic’ market bubble is ready to burst (CNBC) August 9, 2017: Is the stock market a bubble? (USA Today) June 23, 2016: Uh-o...

Chicken Little

Here's Grantham's interview with Bloomberg explaining his thesis about the "Last Dance" in much greater detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w I was pretty convinced that he was right on the money about the impending bust that will rival 1929 and 2000. But then a quick googli...

Chicken Little

I have no interest in gamestop stock. In fact, the store near me closed. No fear of missing out. It seems like this is more of a trade than an investment. They apparently identified an extreme level of shorting that didn't make sense. The original trader started with $53K in call options 17 months ...

Chicken Little

How about some stories from those who got out at the top in 2000? I sure didn't.

Maybe that's what we need?

Chicken Little

But if WSB “advice” has made it here... maybe there’s still more room to grow before it pops. Yeah. The whipsaw is out there. I assume all the bond money converted to equity, which would have stood pat with better yields, will only further that. These Redditors/Robinhooders actually seem like prett...

Chicken Little

I browse Wall Street Bets everyday. It's basically the opposite of Bogleheads. It's hilarious to watch but I do not partake. Fortunes are made and fortunes are lost. I don't trade, but I check in once in a while to follow along over there. Pretty funny as well, if you're into humor. Very entertaini...

Chicken Little

...to invest only into value index fund only (without selling any of my current holdings obviously, new monies only)... Since I share your sentiment, I am going to jump in here as a "positive-negative" role model. In other words, I'll give you a good example of what not to do. First, what...

Chicken Little

...fed this, balance sheet that, and bills coming coming due soon... Well, to be fair, that IS the story. Clarification: it's really past time to substitute "fed" with fed/treasury/executive/congress. They all acted in concert in 2008 and 2020. The "fed's" balance sheet is signi...

Chicken Little

Disrupting charity?

Chicken Little

I’d been doing well just leaving all my money in the market in an index fund, and then a few days ago I went stupid and sold everything, because I thought this new contagious variant was going to bring the market down. Now I can’t bring myself to buy back in because once I do, I’ve locked in my los...

Chicken Little

am wrote: ↑Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:33 pmSo if nothing else, it will stabilize the portfolio in market downturns, but if your an accumulator and have a strong stomach, why do you need a stabilizer?

Isn't the better question...if you've got the guts, then why aren't you levered?

Chicken Little

am wrote: ↑Sat Dec 19, 2020 5:33 pmThe market always recovers, at least US, most of the time rapidly.

In other words, for all practical purposes, US equity is now a risk-free asset class?

Chicken Little

Real yields on the 10 year treasury are already negative. Do we keep buying bonds even if nominal yields go negative? What then? Bonds have turned into a different animal than they were previously. I'm still holding my bond fund but I watch the monthly distribution yield closely and have considered...

Chicken Little

sschoe2 wrote: ↑Sat Dec 19, 2020 2:36 pmI am satisfied enough with my job running a lab in the food industry though I detest living in Illinois.

Running a lab sounds great.

The contact thing is annoying, but contract-to-permanent is pretty common.

Chicken Little

11.05% So are you expecting 11.05% to "catch up"? That would certainly imply that stocks are currently undervalued? Here are the numbers not adjusted for inflation... https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp You can get an average for those, to...

Chicken Little

I don't really care about the actual numbers, because it won't change my plan, but to put it simply, isn't there kind of a sequence-of-annual-return issue here? If somebody was optimistic about S&P returns in 2021, that has to be put in the context of 16.88% YTD for 2020 and 31.49% for 2019, doe...

Chicken Little

In order to have a "4% real return" for the from 2017-2027 would require a -1.3% real return going forward from here.If we only have 0 real return until 2027 we'd have a 5.3% real CAGR over the 10 year period So you crash back to March low, do the slow walk up for remainder of decade and....

Chicken Little

I've said it before; major in chemistry/biochemistry. Even with over 10 years experience and a MSc most companies want to pay me $40-50k and contract no benefits. I have a good job currently and may be able to ride it to retirement but I am seriously looking for a plan B that will get me away from ...

Chicken Little

I've thought about this, and always conclude it doesn't make sense. 1. If it's something you want to hold and it rises in value, you'll miss the gain for a small fraction and defeat the purpose of holding it in the first place. 2. If you wanted to run it as a side business, or buy something you woul...

Chicken Little

What if somebody said that the money they dished out increased the value an appropriate amount? Shouldn’t they dish out much more than they plan on to make the next appropriate market value much, much higher? One has to be careful because some of the people who create and vote on bills are vindicti...

Chicken Little

One has to realize that the Federal government has dished out a lot of money. Yep, really a LOT of money that went into the pockets of shareholders. And the Federal government is going to dish out more money which we cannot talk about here on bogleheads.org. All that money has helped fuel the rise ...

Chicken Little

I've got to say, the idea that equity valuations are looked at as almost a random variable by some folks is crazy. +1 Beyond what consumer item to buy, or Fed watching, this is my only real contribution. Any negative sentiment by anybody is roundly trounced on here, regardless of valuations. That i...

Chicken Little

That’s a very personal aspect of personal finance in my view. Based on your relatively pessimistic outlook, it seems like you are definitely not a candidate for an all equity portfolio. Maybe just go 60/40, which is relatively bond heavy these days. Many people talk about the “new” 60/40 being 70/3...

Chicken Little

People have had that feeling a lot since 2010/2011 and have been wrong. As long as you have a plan to bail when it eventually breaks, there really isn't anything to worry about on a day to day basis. It's also important that if you do bail that you have a plan to buy back in. It's all about plannin...

Chicken Little

This will be my third strike and then I'm out... We can all recite sayings, like "the stock market isn't the economy, and the economy isn't the stock market", but what is the purpose of saying it? Hopefully not to justify an inappropriate asset allocation. Let's look at the things that hav...

Chicken Little

Here would be another attempt: PE is rising. How much of the increase in "P" is from stocks with effectively no "E"? There are plenty of threads about what past run-ups to recessions felt like and the best lessons learned. 1. 2000 and 2008 feel like now (although I appear to be a...

Chicken Little

Not sure OP was actually serious. But if so just seems like fear of heights in market. So then let me ask you this. If you simply chart GSPC on yahoo, you basically see a linear slope leading up to 2000, a walk back, a linear slope up to 2008, a walk back, and then pretty much a linear slope up to ...

Chicken Little

Ordinarily, I don’t believe in omens but I am a little spooked. Stay the course (if you have a sound plan, correct?). It's the second part that is the key. There are "omens" everywhere. Here are two; Airbnb and Doordash. Ask yourself this, what do you think the maximum drawdown could be, ...

Chicken Little

I'd like to see a K-1 free commodity ETF, with a reasonable expense ratio, that goes up when the value of an underlying basket of commodities increases, and goes down when the value of the same basket decreases, although I'm not wed to the latter.

Chicken Little

TIPS?? What am I missing? Say you have 10% of your portfolio in TIPS. Then at most, you are protecting 10% of your portfolio from hyper-inflation. Is that adequate? If I was worried about hyperinflation, I would buy physical gold and Bitcoin. I hold neither because to me, trying to protect against ...

Chicken Little

I've seen different bloggers and people online suggest Vanguard ETF's for implementing different Lazy portfolios. Two in particular that interest me are Dalio's All Weather and the Golden Butterfly. Does the fact that Dalio now thinks that one shouldn't hold any bonds influence your thinking? The a...

Chicken Little

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/01/trouble-lurks-for-stock-market-in-december-credit-suisse-warns-.html [Credit Suisse’s Jonathan Golub suggests waiting until after December- description of linked article added by Mod Misenplace.] read this pronouncement: “The end of ’21, what are we seeing?” said Gol...

Chicken Little

Hitting two commas in my NW was a beautiful milestone. I marked it on the calendar -- and remarked it as dips temporarily took me below and back above that mark until it stayed there. We're solidly over two comma with home paid off in early 50's. Home was a fixer-upper, and not expensive, so while ...

Chicken Little

I'm actually just coming into it myself. $62k annual spending. House paid off long ago. 5 paid off cars. Both kids likely done with college and both working. $3.1MM in investments (I see it as $3MM locked in). 50/50 AA Coming up on $100k in efund/savings/checking. DW and I both working full time. W...

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