Search found 90 matches

by Garfieldthecat
Thu Mar 14, 2024 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wool slippers worth it?
Replies: 53
Views: 5415

Re: Wool slippers worth it?

We don't wear shoes in the house, and I have been buying cheap slippers from Kohls, but they end up getting gross after a month or so. The cheap polyester felt holds moisture and smells and the insole breaks down. I was looking at some nicer Halfinger wool slippers. They're around $120. Are all wool slippers worth the extra price? It seems like they'd last longer and not get smelly and gross. People rave about Ugg slippers, but I don't like fuzzy slippers with shearling inside. Way too hot. Wool seems like a nice compromise. This is basically me as well. All the fake fur or fleece or whatever makes my foot sweat way too much. I got two pairs of Halfingers, so I could alternate them to let them dry out, and love them. I got the ones with th...
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Feb 28, 2024 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your favorite book?
Replies: 187
Views: 20511

Re: What is your favorite book?

Lord of the Rings - need I say more?
The Martian - Great Scifi book
Shogun - Now with a new miniseries!

Not great literature, but love reading Warhammer 40K books for cheesy fun.
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Feb 19, 2024 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What email address is "okay/acceptable" to use then?
Replies: 168
Views: 18357

Re: What email address is "okay/acceptable" to use then?

Guess I am dating myself, but gmail wasn't around when I got my email address through my ISP......bellsouth.net. Does that mean everyone is judging me? :happy I do have a gmail account that I never login to, had to create it when I got my old android phone I think. I still use my bellsouth.net email just because I've used it on so many websites to create accounts on, it would be way too much trouble to get a new email address and have to change all those website accounts. It helps that only maybe a dozen or so real people have my email address and would actually email me, so for me, I don't see the reason for changing. I could keep the bellsouth email just for all the websites, and use gmail or something for real people, but if it isn't' br...
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Feb 09, 2023 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: WWII Non-Fiction Book Recs
Replies: 103
Views: 8187

Re: WWII Non-Fiction Book Recs

For WWII Eastern Front: Ostkreig - Stephen Fritz When Titan's clashed - Glantz Anything by David Stahl, he has several books on the Eastern Front Beware of older Eastern Front books that only tell the "propagandized German view" of the war. More ecent books are way more balanced. For Europe: Anything by Carlo D'este, as mentioned before Business in Great Waters - John Terraine - U-boat wars for WWII Hitlers U Boat War (two volumes) - Clay Blair - More detailed U-boat war books Pacific: Battle of Midway - Craig Symon Guadalcanal - Richard Frank - "the" book on that campaign Silent Victory - Clay Blair - US submarine war in the pacific Last Stand of the Tin Can Sailors - Hornfisher - Can't say enough about the bravery of t...
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Calculator Q: HP 12C vs BAII Plus
Replies: 35
Views: 2469

Re: Calculator Q: HP 12C vs BAII Plus

I'm still using my 11C from around 1985, it's on my desk right now and is my "go to" calculator at work.

Of course, at home I have my 48SX that I got in engineering school :happy

After all these years of RPN, I really can't use a non-HP calculator.
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Radiology Tech/Sonography (& Other Allied Health) Career Advice with a B.A. in Art?
Replies: 51
Views: 5445

Re: Radiology Tech/Sonography (& Other Allied Health) Career Advice with a B.A. in Art?

Thank you for posting this question. My daughter is currently deciding between nursing and EKG tech. I know that nursing requires a lot more training, etc. What about EKG tech? Are they in demand? Salary? What settings and hours do they work. Trying to get a real life view from people in medical field. Thank you. EKG techs, if hospitals have them, are generally low paying jobs. Many hospitals just have resp therapists do EKG. At my hospital we only have 2-3 EKG techs that do most of the EKG's during the day, and RT does the overflow and evening/nights. RN would be MUCH higher pay, but your daughter (IMHO) has to want to be a nurse and want to help take care of people, and not do it for the money. Of course, I would say that about every hea...
by Garfieldthecat
Sun Dec 25, 2022 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Radiology Tech/Sonography (& Other Allied Health) Career Advice with a B.A. in Art?
Replies: 51
Views: 5445

Re: Radiology Tech/Sonography (& Other Allied Health) Career Advice with a B.A. in Art?

I work with both Echo and Vascular techs on our hospital, and am actually an RVT myself, so am qualified do do vascular ultrasound, among other things. First off, I'd say yes, it's a good field to go into, ultrasound demands are up since they are cheap (relatively) and non-invasive. The trend in medicine is always to go to cheaper and safer tests, and ultrasound is both. Plus with better imaging equipment, we can see and do a lot more then 20 years ago. Plus lots of techs are older and closer to retirement. There are 4 main specialties, OB, Vascular, Cardiac, and General. I don't know about OB, but of the other three, Echo and Vascular usually pay more because they are more independent while doing patients. General ultrasound is under radio...
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Nov 21, 2022 6:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Atlanta places to visit?
Replies: 11
Views: 1177

Re: Atlanta places to visit?

Don't forget Centennial Park, and if you like football, the College Football Hall of fame. Both downtown by the Aquarium.
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Sep 09, 2022 8:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any audiophiles on this forum?
Replies: 326
Views: 42084

Re: Any audiophiles on this forum?

PC setup for gaming and music: PC USB ->RME ADI-2 -> Schiit Lyr 3 (tube :happy ) -> Dan Clark Audio Ether 2's.

Love the Ether2's, so lightweight and comfy to wear with great sound. Tried Focal Clears but they just didn't sound as good as the Ether 2. But headphone choices are very YMMV, everyone has their own preferences.

TV setup: New Denon X3700h AVR with 12 year old Emotiva Amp running Mini Strata's in a 5.1 setup. Just got the Denon AVR to get a zone 2 (2nd output) so I could connect a headphone amp for my wife (she is a little hard of hearing, so uses the close captioning usually). With a zone 2, I can use our speakers to watch TV/movies and she can wear the headphones and still hear everything. Much better for her.
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I buy extended warranties, here's why.
Replies: 105
Views: 11854

Re: I buy extended warranties, here's why.

I've only gotten 2 warranties:

1. Got an Ipad Pro for my wife, and they really aren't repairable, so I got applecare for her. Which worked great when she walked into a pool with it and killed it. Got a new replacement for the $50 or whatever the cost was.

2. bought a Macbook air for niece going to college. Got applecare for her just to minimize any issues while away at college if she breaks it.

Other then that, I haven't bought any. I try to take care of my stuff, so usually don't have issues.
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Aug 03, 2022 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MacBook Air vs Pro, M1 vs M2 vs M1 Pro?
Replies: 29
Views: 2719

Re: MacBook Air vs Pro, M1 vs M2 vs M1 Pro?

I'm in the market for a laptop and have decided on a Macbook rather than Windows, Linux or Chromebook, mostly because of the integration with my iPhone, iMessage, etc. I would use it only a few hours per day, so battery life is not a factor among these models. Aside from the usual email, internet browsing, word processing, and Excel (largest spreadsheet is 5 sheets), my higher intensity uses would be: * Daily for up to 30 minutes at a time: using Citrix to access a hospital electronic medical record (Meditech, for the health professionals out there) * 1-2x/month for 10-20 minutes each time: Using Citrix to access GE image viewing software for radiology still images and video clips of echocardiogram (heart ultrasound) images. Each echocardi...
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Jul 11, 2022 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your favorite retirement calculator?
Replies: 80
Views: 19024

Re: What is your favorite retirement calculator?

Firecalc and cfiresim for historical testing
Portfolio Visualizer for Monte Carlo testing
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tom Clancy series book recommendations
Replies: 53
Views: 6347

Re: Tom Clancy series book recommendations

I was a huge Clancy fan as a kid, but didn't get into the ghostwritten stuff: a slightly off-base recommendation: Orson Scott Card's Ender series. (ender's game being the headliner) its sci-fi but deals with military & leadership psychology, deception, strategy and strategic evolution. You won't get a 2 page description of the inter-workings of a nuclear bomb in techno-thriller clancy style.... but it has been recommended/required reading at various US military academies at certain periods of time and after reading and enjoying it I see why. If you have watched the movie that came out recently and you know how it ends, are the books worth reading? That's a pretty big spoiler surprise! I'd say yes. The book (as most books converted to m...
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization
Replies: 22
Views: 2385

Re: TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization

celia wrote: Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:47 pm OP, Since you hadn’t called them up, I knew it had to be a Roth conversion.
Yes, you are correct. I had it wrong. Sorry about that.
by Garfieldthecat
Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization
Replies: 22
Views: 2385

Re: TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization

Thanks everyone. I ended up deleting out the 1099R out of Turbo Tax, and then reentered it myself, and it came out correctly. I must have did something wrong the first time I put it in. TT does have me filing an 8606 for 2021, and I did also have one in 2020 as well.

Edit: I thought what I did was a recharacterization, but I get confused between that and conversion.
by Garfieldthecat
Sat Feb 12, 2022 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization
Replies: 22
Views: 2385

Re: TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization

Thanks for the help. I was a bit worried about that big tax amount that TT said I had to pay!
by Garfieldthecat
Sat Feb 12, 2022 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization
Replies: 22
Views: 2385

TurboTax saying I owe tax on Roth IRA recharaterization

I'm starting to do my taxes, and use TurboTax. I did a $14000 recharacterization from Trad IRA -> Roth IRA back in January 2021 with my Vanguard accounts. In mid December 2020, with a zero dollar trad IRA balance, I put in $7000 for a 2020 contribution. In early January 2021, I put in an additional $7000 for a 2021 contribution. After about a week or so later in late Jan 2021, I recharacterized the $14000.19 total to my Roth IRA, following one of the several online guides. The 19 cents is interest from sitting in my sweep find.So my Trad IRA is back to zero balance. Both of these contributions are post tax dollars, so I should only be taxed on the 19 cents correct? But entering my 1099-R into turbo tax, it wants me to pay like $3000 in taxe...
by Garfieldthecat
Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees' experiences if their fixed income returned close to the bond market's current expectations
Replies: 80
Views: 6303

Re: Year 2000 retirees' experiences if their fixed income returned close to the bond market's current expectations

Thank you for doing this WillThrill81. This helps reinforce my current thoughts of working part time for a few years after I turn 65 to help improve our SWR in the future. You're welcome. I really wasn't trying to lead investors to any specific conclusion, just to point out that what some view as being very safe might not be as safe as they believe it to be in the future. Some view the glass as half-full (e.g., 'Wow, the '4% rule' is on track to succeed for year 2000 retirees even if they had used T-bills for their fixed income? That's great!), while others view it as half-empty (e.g., 'Yikes! The '4% rule' will probably deplete year 2000 retirees' portfolio right around the 30 year mark if their fixed income returns were poor? I need to l...
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees' experiences if their fixed income returned close to the bond market's current expectations
Replies: 80
Views: 6303

Re: Year 2000 retirees' experiences if their fixed income returned close to the bond market's current expectations

OK, I decided to try this myself. I'm using the Backtest Portfolio to do this, and I used 3 different portfolios: #1 is the conventional 60% stock (50/50 US/Ex-US) and 40% bonds - This should be willthrill81's initial protfolio for the ear 2000 retirees #2 is 60% (all US) stock and 40% CASHX - I was curious about the difference between all US and not #3 is willthrill81's "low/no" bond, 60% stock (50/50 US/ex-US) and 40% CASHX This is the 4% withdrawal https://i.postimg.cc/06NMhHBX/4-withdrawal.jpg This is 3.75% https://i.postimg.cc/D47KYRC8/375-withdrawal.jpg This is 3.5% https://i.postimg.cc/jWkwT4Vx/35-withdrawal.jpg My 4% screenshot matches willthrill81's pretty close, so I think I did this right. I hope the images come out OK....
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Jan 07, 2022 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees' experiences if their fixed income returned close to the bond market's current expectations
Replies: 80
Views: 6303

Re: Year 2000 retirees' experiences if their fixed income returned close to the bond market's current expectations

Thanks to willthrill81 for doing this. Given all the talk about the 4% rule (of thumb) in todays financial environment, it is good to see the results of low bonds.

Is it possible to rerun this with maybe a 3% and 3.5% withdrawal (or maybe 3.75% and 3.5%?) to see how someone with those withdrawal rates would be doing, compared to the 4% rate? Given that a lot of people here seem to be using a sub-4% number, this would maybe give some advice for using a less then 4% rate.

If this "low/no bond" scenario with 3.5% withdrawal gives the same ending amount as the original 4% (regular bond) analysis, that gives some peace of mind that 3.5% would be good. Or it shows that maybe 3% is better for peace of mind.
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cars -- When and Why Did You Switch from Economy/Practicality to Luxury?
Replies: 333
Views: 35063

Re: Cars -- When and Why Did You Switch from Economy/Practicality to Luxury?

Late to the party, but I agree that a better definition of what qualifies as luxury is needed. Plus how long are you keeping the car? It's one think to buy/sell "luxury" calls every 5 years vs keeping them a long time. I'm on my 2nd BMW, my first was a 330i that I bought new and kept for 13 years. I got a good deal because it was when they revamped the look of the 3 series, and I got the "old" look. My current BMW is a 230i, which is about 3 years old and will keep for another 10 years most likely. Both of those cars I would not classify as luxury. Are they more expensive then a Civic? Sure. But if I had gotten a Camry or Accord, I probably only would have saved maybe $5,000 or so. Both my cars at the time were less expe...
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What do you typically do (and how do you spend your money) on a typical retirement day/week/month
Replies: 108
Views: 13862

Re: What do you typically do (and how do you spend your money) on a typical retirement day/week/month

My wife and I have wondered about this as well, as I am 10-15 years from retiring. We have noticed that as busy as we are normally with work, when we go to a beach resort for 7-8 days on vacation, after a few days at the beach we seem to 'slow down" and relax more and rush around like when we are at home. We find that we like it when we are there and relaxed, which makes us think once retired, we will get used to having more free time, and be able to do things at our own pace and not have such a hectic schedule.

Makes us less worried about our retirement downtime :happy
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much do I need to retire??
Replies: 23
Views: 3100

Re: How much do I need to retire??

You base how much you need saved in retirement by your expenses. How much to you spend each year (including taxes and healthcare)?

Once you know your expesnse, you can calculate about how much money you will need saved. For a 30 year retirement, the "4% rule", which is more a rule of thumb, not a mathematical rule, is a good benchmark. 4% is 25 times your expenses, so if you need $50,000/year to live on, you would need $1.25 million saved (not counting SS or pensions) as a rough benchmark for the ability to retire.
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Aug 30, 2021 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you ignore social security in your calculations?
Replies: 256
Views: 28522

Re: Can you ignore social security in your calculations?

For people thinking Social Security won't be around when they retire, what do you (you in the general sense, not anyone specific) think will happen to all the retirees that are living only on SS?

I think something like 30-40% of retirees live on SS alone. If it is significantly cut, or eliminated? What happens to these millions of people? Homelessness and living on the street?

Seems like SS will have to be kept in some fashion because I think the social and economic impact of 10-15 million people suddenly with no money would be huge.
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Movies - Name Five
Replies: 277
Views: 24211

Re: Favorite Movies - Name Five

The Martian - Good mostly realistic sci-fi movie, and the book is even better
Lord of the Rings Trilogy - True Classic, and the books are even better as well
Where Eagles Dare - WWII action movie with Richard Burton and Clint Eastwood
Cutting Edge - DB Sweeny as a washed up hokey player who turns to figure skating
Running Scared - Billy Crystal and Gregory Hines as '80s Chicago cops
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Jun 16, 2021 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Computer/Security
Replies: 41
Views: 3858

Re: New Computer/Security

+1 to everyone saying behavior is the most important thing. All the security in the world doesn't help if you click on a bad link in a phishing email. The most important thing IMHO is to make sure your internet router has it's password changed from the default to something long. Same with any wifi networks that you might have. The best is to use a passphrase, like "lovehikinglongtrails" or something. A longer password is always better. Good passwords for your accounts is important too. You can write it down to remember, since in this kind of case, if someone is in your house, them reading your password is the least of your problems. I literally write mine on a sticker that I put on my router so I can find it when needed. That and ...
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Feb 10, 2021 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?
Replies: 132
Views: 15320

Re: Bond yields of 1% mean that 60/40-type allocations are off for almost everyone?

Are we talking about 60/40 during accumulation, or after retirement? If it's after retirement for a typical ~30 year retirement, I don't see this as a major problem. For people with 25X expenses (AKA 4% "rule") and a 30 year retirement, I don't think it's a big deal. So you earn a little less. It's seems high inflation or really really bad stock market run that causes problems from what I've read. Now if you are 60/40 and 30years old and accumulating, then yes, it's possible you either need to accept possibly/probably lower returns, or save more. Still doesn't seem that different since you never can predict the future anyway. Save as much as you can and just see how it goes. And for the FIRE folks, then this could be a problem as ...
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Jan 14, 2021 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Firecalc Projection
Replies: 13
Views: 1590

Re: Firecalc Projection

Probably in today's dollars, more or less. That's how I read this part of the explanation on the results page: "values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle". Although that would seem to imply that it's using the historical inflation rates for each modeled period too, rather than assuming a single assumed future inflation rate for all growth periods like it does for spending and income, which is pretty cool. Plus, if I set the "investigate" section to provide a spreadsheet, it points out that the values are NOT inflation-adjusted, and I get a different average final value from what the webpage reports. It's all moot though, I suppose, since the idea of Firecalc isn't to ...
by Garfieldthecat
Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Physicians: Should I leave my job?
Replies: 207
Views: 19908

Re: Physicians: Should I leave my job?

Inframan4712 wrote: Tue Sep 22, 2020 6:19 am Also, if your department is billing 1 million and paying you $650k they may be losing money after salaries for all other staff plus facilities costs.
The $1 million in billing is per month, so $12 Mil/year.
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Firecalc...am I doing this right?
Replies: 6
Views: 870

Re: Firecalc...am I doing this right?

I plugged your numbers for your 23 years of saving pre-retirement, and and assuming a 70/30 AA, got a median of about $7 million (inflation adjusted). You can also run firecalc for just 23 years until retirement, to see what it thinks you have at the time of retirement. Retiring at age 60 with $7 million in the bank with only $90,000 of expenses gives a really low withdrawal rate, so not a surprise that your total amount keeps going up. You would have something like a 1.5% withdrawal rate in that case. Is it correct? Well, based on your numbers, yes. But do you know your numbers will be correct for the next 25+ years? :happy Healthcare insurance, vacations, medical bills, etc.....these expenses aren't always easy to estimate going forward 2...
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Mar 26, 2020 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My treadmill broke. Now what?
Replies: 36
Views: 2804

Re: My treadmill broke. Now what?

CharacterCounts wrote: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:46 pm We use a Landice L7. Have used it regularly for 15 years or so. Comes with a lifetime warranty on parts. Expensive, but has held up to serious use. Glad we spent a little extra on it.
+1

Have a Landice treadmill for probably about 10 years now, trained for a marathon with it. Nothing wrong with running inside vs outside on a road.

On a treadmill, you get better temps (no freezing cold or super hot temps), no pollen or smog, and it's more forgiving to run on then concrete. Plus you can listen to music safely if that's your thing, or watch TV. And the bathroom and drinks are always available. :D
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?
Replies: 505
Views: 69215

Re: How Is Your Job Being Impacted By The Current Crisis?

Healthcare at a big hospital....really really busy.
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments
Replies: 51
Views: 3365

Re: NCAA cancels March Madness tournaments

Once again, I can’t tell what is real and what is satire. Do you not see how canceling large gatherings of people from all over the country would slow the spread of a virus? A virus that threatens to overrun our healthcare system? We have 1500 or so official infections and 40 confirmed deaths. The only thing overrunning the healthcare system at this point is needless panic. The 40 million infections and 40,000 deaths from seasonal flu doesn't seem to overrun the healthcare system each year. It is not needless panic. If you are only looking at back data, does not “seem” bad. However, this will very likely be an exponential growth of some unknown slope and duration. Healthcare does not like to play unknowns when we only have x number of nega...
by Garfieldthecat
Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: [Archived] Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 4963
Views: 304603

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426 This series of 9 tweets says they have sequenced the strain in WA from yesterday and with a high probability it descends from the strain first reported in WA 6 weeks ago. Without getting into all the details, the conclusion is that this has been active in the community for 6 weeks now. Best estimate is hundreds of infections in WA at the moment. And that likely this wasn't caught sooner because the CDC would only test cases that were related to traveling from China. If true, this could be a good thing. If it has been here (WA) for 6 weeks, and you don't have a huge spike in serious flu-like cases and other related serious respiratory cases, it could be that the mortality/morbidity of thi...
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Jan 30, 2020 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Re: Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?

I also had run it several times, but differences for the same data only came into the 10's of thousands of dollars (say $1.23mill to $1.28 mill). SO I can understand those difference as a result of the random number of simulations.
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Jan 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Re: Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?

rkhusky wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 10:09 am
Garfieldthecat wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:32 am
So in this case, using assest classes be more accurate, since it has access to a longer period of data, correct?
No. Accuracy will depend on which data set more closely resembles the future, which no one knows.

Or are you using accuracy in a different way?
Yeah, I worded that poorly. Just meant it had access to a longer timeframe of data.
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Jan 30, 2020 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Re: Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?

PV bases the simulation on the available data. PV's data for the VTSAX mutual fund only goes back to 2001, whereas the benchmark data for the broad market goes back to the 1970's. If you used VTSMX instead of VTSAX you would likely get different results as well, as that data goes back to 1993. U.S. Stock market returns since 2001 were not as good as returns over other time periods, so the "average" resulting returns will be lower. So if I understand correctly, the asset class data goes back way further, while ticker data is more recent. And the ticker data that is available is lower on average, so that causes the difference. So in this case, using assest classes be more accurate, since it has access to a longer period of data, co...
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Jan 30, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?
Replies: 7
Views: 797

Differences in Portfolio Visualizer?

I was using the Monte Carlo simming in PV, and noticed a difference which I don't understand.

Using a $1million start, and letting it grow with no contributions or withdrawals for 10 years, using a 60/40 portfolio, I get the following numbers:

Using the asset classes, and doing 60% US total stock market, and 40% US total bond market, I get amounts of $2.26 mil / $1.84 mil/ $1.48 mil (those are at 75%/50% and 25% percentile values)

But using tickers, and using 60% VTSAX and 40% VBMFX, I get $1.95mil / $1.58mill / $1.26 mil.

Shouldn't these numbers be a lot closer then they are? I get that MC is a sim, but a ~15% difference seems a bit much. Is there something I'm missing? ER from the actual funds maybe?
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on 4% withdraw rate
Replies: 21
Views: 2508

Re: Question on 4% withdraw rate

geerhardusvos wrote: Mon Dec 23, 2019 2:30 pm I recommend early retirement now and the safe with drawl series https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-wit ... te-series/

This recommends a 3 to 3.5% withdrawal rate to be actually safe
Keep in mind that the author of that web page is all about early retirement, and discusses a lot of 40, 50 and 60 year retirements. For 30 years, 4% is a pretty safe bet according to his data (but of course still not guarantied, but neither is 3.5% or 3% guarantied to work)

For the so-called "4% rule", it is a 4% SWR over a 30 year period.
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Dec 06, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roll tIRA into 403(b) with a twist
Replies: 6
Views: 383

Re: Roll tIRA into 403(b) with a twist

Thanks for the responses. I thought what Vanguard said didn't seem right, and I really don't want to break any laws and have the IRS come after me.

I did file form 8606 for both years, and also did not deduct since I was over the limit, making it post-tax. I have the exact amount I re-characterized, it's about $5200 each year (I was putting in $400/month, so had $500 in gains when I re-characterized).

I'll see about seeing if I can separate the money out, and I'll just wait until next year to start this.

As a side note, I wish this wasn't so confusing. :happy
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roll tIRA into 403(b) with a twist
Replies: 6
Views: 383

Roll tIRA into 403(b) with a twist

I have a traditional IRA, Roth IRA, and 403(b) with Vanguard. I'll be over Roth contribution limit next year. My tIRA balance is about $150,000 so moving it into my Roth IRA and paying taxes on it isn't an option. I thought I couldn't, but just found out that my 403(b) does allow an tIRA -> 403(b) rollover. The twist is that back in 2012 and 2013 (had to go back and look it up), I contributed $4800 (2012) and $4800 (2013) into my Roth IRA. At the end of both those years, I found out my AGI was over the limit so I immediately re-characterized the money into my traditional IRA to prevent any penalties. So this money was all post-tax obviously. With the exception of those two re-characterizations, everything else in my traditional IRA is a rol...
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: withdrawal rate if you’re expecting maximum SS at age 70?
Replies: 35
Views: 5297

Re: withdrawal rate if you’re expecting maximum SS at age 70?

You can use Portfolio Visualizer, it has a (monte-carlo) sim that allows multiple inputs.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/mon ... simulation

Since it's a monte carlo simulation, it doesn't use historical data like firecalc, but it is still pretty good.

I have used it because in my planning I have a similar issue, that I will have one withdrawal rate pre-SS, and a lower amount after.
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Nov 13, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forgotten Expenses in Retirement--Travel
Replies: 32
Views: 3192

Re: Forgotten Expenses in Retirement--Travel

I'm not retired yet either (12-15 years to go). But in my planning, I have added $20,000 / year for travel in my retirement budget.

That would give us several extra nice vacations a year, and since we will be retired, why shouldn't we have fun? Also, if the economy goes downhill and things really go bad, it's an easy expense to cut back and reduce expenses.

As we get older and travel less, I also figure it can go to savings for potential medical costs or long term care or similar issues.
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 37
Views: 5606

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

OP can also try the Rich, broke or Dead web page:

https://engaging-data.com/will-money-last-retire-early/

It has an option for spending flexibility, so you could put in the initial spending amount with 50% spending flexibility to see how it works out.
by Garfieldthecat
Fri Nov 08, 2019 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 30934

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Rob1 wrote: Fri Nov 08, 2019 2:33 pm
Garfieldthecat wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:56 am I can't find the webpage, but I've seen it linked in the forum a couple of times, where it basically says a success rate of 95% is fine, because you can't predict an asteroid crashing into us, or WWIII starting, or some other huge disaster.
"But history teaches us that depriving ourselves to boost our 40-year success probability much beyond 80% is a fool’s errand, since all you are doing is increasing the probability of failure for political, economic, and military reasons relative to the failure of banal financial planning."

More context in Bernstein‘s article here:
The Retirement Calculator from Hell, Part III
http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/901/hell3.htm
That's the one. Tried to find it quickly but couldn't.
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Nov 07, 2019 9:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 30934

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Really? Even 3% is debatable now? What's next, 2.5% is too aggressive? The historical average returns, on which past SWR determinations are based, are 10% for stocks and 7% for bonds. Good luck trying to get anything close to that now. That said, mostly the issue is for the "FIRE crowd" i.e. relatively young people banking on the "4% withdrawal rule" over time periods spanning several decades. Risk of shortfall raises exponentially. Unless I'm mistaken, SWR is based on the worst case periods of our history (ie Great Depression and Stagflation), it isn't based on any average. SWR is the withdrawal rate that would let you not run out of money in retirement for any 30 year period (Normally 30 years, as per Trinity and othe...
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Nov 06, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 30934

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

Stinky wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 9:13 am
Luckywon wrote: Wed Nov 06, 2019 1:10 am Sorry to bring you bad news, but at a 3% withdrawal rate, adjusted for inflation, you are far, far more likely to die than outlive your money.
Huh? So you mean that OP is more likely than not to die broke at a 3% withdrawal rate?

What’s your basis for making this statement?
My read of that statement is that the OP is far more likely to die with money in the bank then die broke.
by Garfieldthecat
Wed Nov 06, 2019 6:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Will we be OK at 3% WR?
Replies: 342
Views: 30934

Re: Will we be OK at 3% WR?

I would spend 3% and not think twice about it with an inflation adjustment. Those saying 2.2% are too conservative IMHO. This. Yes, the next 30-40 years might be even worse than the years in the Trinity Study. It's possible... The worst times in U.S. history may be around the corner. But if 4% worked during times of Global Depression, and World Wars, then 3% is very conservative. Even for people in their 50s. 2.2% is beyond conservative. Anything that makes 3% fail is probably going to make 2.2% fail as well. And the OP already says they currently meet all their needs with 2.2% anyway... So going up to 3%, WITH THE ABILITY TO EASILY CUT BACK, is a no-brainer. OP, feel free to take some extra trips, and splurge a little. You can always cut ...
by Garfieldthecat
Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you look at your IRA or 401K Balances
Replies: 71
Views: 7369

Re: How often do you look at your IRA or 401K Balances

Not retired yet, but only check twice a year.

I add up our various balances so I can record the total amount to track our growth, and make sure our AA's are still within range.
by Garfieldthecat
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Adding SS income to Portfolio Visualizer?
Replies: 10
Views: 1428

Re: Adding SS income to Portfolio Visualizer?

I just used the "contribution" in the drop down, and then clicked on the inflation adjusted box. Thanks...that's easier than me trying to guess. But as a follow-up question, if you use this option, might the SS benefits be projected to get lower? For example, from 2008-2009, the average CPI declined. I think the SS increase has been 0 before, but it doesn't normally decline, right? I'm a ways away from SS, so haven't really checked, but I am pretty sure SS never goes down. SS might not get a COLA increase, but I don't think SS has ever reduced it's payment from year to year. Right, apart from possible future cuts across the board, SS might not always correlate with CPI, which can be negative. So I'm still trying to sort out how t...