Search found 4691 matches

by JackoC
Sat Dec 09, 2023 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "In general, bonds add little or no value to the portfolio of ordinary long-term investors"
Replies: 262
Views: 47894

Re: "In general, bonds add little or no value to the portfolio of ordinary long-term investors"

2% is more risky than 5% because it is more conceivable to see rates rise to 12% then fall to -5%. That's really a belief rather than a fact. Yeah, if you can choose between the two at the same time, go with the better deal. But you can't (as I explained above). Also, picking absolute numbers (12% and -5%) is kind of artificial. For example, you could instead compare the risk of interest rates doubling vs. getting cut in half. A better analogy (than the chemistry one) is the stock market. Some people believe the stock market is riskier at CAPE=25 than at CAPE=20. But the two are never true at the same time (i.e., at a given moment in time, you can't choose between a US total equity market ETF at CAPE=20 and another one at CAPE=25, all cont...
by JackoC
Sat Dec 09, 2023 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reporter doing story on retirees who are shifting to bonds for today's higher yields
Replies: 11
Views: 3197

Re: Reporter doing story on retirees who are shifting to bonds for today's higher yields

Wouldn’t shifting one’s AA simply because of higher yields be considered market timing? Shifting because of bond yields alone, yes. Shifting because of relative change in bond yields v stock earnings/dividend yield though, whether or not considered 'marketing timing' on this forum would be consistest with fundamental principles of modern finance. Assuming constant relative risk aversion (oversimplified but not ridiculous model of a real world utility function) Merton derived a closed form equation for equity allocation, the so called Merton Fraction see link. The numerator is the Equity Risk Premium. The allocation would be a linear function of the difference between stock expected return and the 'riskless' rate. Since late 2021 real bond ...
by JackoC
Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?
Replies: 123
Views: 17386

Re: Hey Men, what are you wearing to the gym?

Shorts and a tee-shirt Same. Can't believe men are giving this any more thought than that. I think there is some value in having good-quality workout wear. Getting suited up can be part of the ritual that helps you take the workout seriously and put you in the right mindset, and being comfortable with the way you look can give a bit of a psychological edge. It's probably not me. I don't need a ritual of suiting up in a fancy and expensive gym outfit to take the workout seriously. But maybe not for other people. Just clean pair of shorts and t-shirt, so I'm not a distraction to other people. And they would leave me alone to focus on my lifts. When I'm at the gym, it's only me and the weights. Last one is my measure, as long as I'm not a dis...
by JackoC
Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TPMS with new tires
Replies: 12
Views: 1340

Re: TPMS with new tires

Is it normal to "update" TPMS when having new tires installed? Conventional wisdom probably says no but a recent quote from BJs added about $70 to the bill for TPMS. Goodyear tires replacing same on a Lexus RX350. TPMS batteries can go dead after several years. They are expensive, so $70 for the set is pretty good. Even one can be that much. It’s standard nowadays for tire centers to require working TPMS with new tires. The issue being OP's subsequent post giving the line items of the bill, none of which are sensors. They appear to be *3* sets (12 items) of valve stem, grommet, washer etc 'servce' kits, TPMS related items they may need to replace when they remove the tire from the rim without replacing the sensors. As you suggest...
by JackoC
Thu Dec 07, 2023 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

A great demonstration of paradigm. You can't imagine not using a LE estimate in financial planning...unless, three possible exceptions you state: very rich, very poor, or ok with running out of money. I can assure you none of those describe me. That's the thing about paradigm. It is the worldview or frame of reference adopted by an individual. It's like looking out your living room window. You see some trees, some grass, some neighbors. But that's not the whole world, just your view. There are other legitimate views. The concept was first popularized by Thomas Kuhn in 1962, introducing the idea of paradigm shift in science. As to why I would read a thread about LE calculation when I don't have a need for one, I have always been curious in ...
by JackoC
Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TPMS with new tires
Replies: 12
Views: 1340

Re: TPMS with new tires

Is it normal to "update" TPMS when having new tires installed? Conventional wisdom probably says no but a recent quote from BJs added about $70 to the bill for TPMS. Goodyear tires replacing same on a Lexus RX350. TPMS batteries can go dead after several years. They are expensive, so $70 for the set is pretty good. Even one can be that much. It’s standard nowadays for tire centers to require working TPMS with new tires. The issue being OP's subsequent post giving the line items of the bill, none of which are sensors. They appear to be *3* sets (12 items) of valve stem, grommet, washer etc 'servce' kits, TPMS related items they may need to replace when they remove the tire from the rim without replacing the sensors. As you suggest...
by JackoC
Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

The whole head in the sand thing is a metaphor that needs to go away. It's derived from a myth, that ostriches somehow bury their heads in the sand and ignore danger. Ostriches don't ever actually do this. Simply claim that a person is ignoring danger and then describe the danger being ignored. Thanks for the wildlife education. :D Love the response! I'm not a wildlife expert, but I did get strangely interested in this metaphor when I was planning a speech. One of those going down the rabbit hole things. (Another animal metaphor!) But, would you do this please? Set aside the metaphor. Finish the claim you made in your sentence, "Seems head in sand to insist that can't have any implication for investment planning " which becomes, ...
by JackoC
Wed Dec 06, 2023 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: TPMS with new tires
Replies: 12
Views: 1340

Re: TPMS with new tires

Resetting the TPMS? Or for sensor replacement? Not sure - quote lists 4 - DILL TPMS kit 2000K @ $5 each, 4 - Redi Sensor kit 7020K @ $5 each and 5 DILL TPMS kit 1100K @ $5 each for a total of $60 + tax. Believe DISS is a brand name. Vehicle is 2015 model year. No charge for this at a Goodyear store when the tires were being replaced 4 years ago and no charge at BJs when I replaced tires on another vehicle about 2 years ago. [edit partly just repeats previous post] Those are not the sensors, from the Amazon listing for the 1100K: "recommended to replace valve cap, valve core, rubber grommet, hex nut and washer each time tire is removed from rim" and those are the components of the kit, and they cost ~$5 a tire. The odd thing is th...
by JackoC
Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did anyone regretfully save a lot of cash before investing?
Replies: 23
Views: 4941

Re: Did anyone regretfully save a lot of cash before investing?

Search for AnnetteLouisan posts. She was in a similar situation and eventually started stock investing but only something like 25%. It’s true. Even now as I contemplate rolling over a $100k CD versus investing in t bills or a mutual fund, I still believe the CD is the only option where getting my money *back* is guaranteed by law no matter *what*. That was always my key concern, much more so than investment yield. You can get CD money in a matter of days plus interest, with a penalty, whether someone steals it, the bank goes under, really no matter what. When one is socio-economically vulnerable, one might be inclined to rule out certain otherwise advantageous things where the process of enforcing one’s rights may be a hardship. If there i...
by JackoC
Wed Dec 06, 2023 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

Seems head in sand to insist that can't have any implication for investment planning. The whole head in the sand thing is a metaphor that needs to go away. It's derived from a myth, that ostriches somehow bury their heads in the sand and ignore danger. Ostriches don't ever actually do this. Simply claim that a person is ignoring danger and then describe the danger being ignored. Thanks for the wildlife education. :D Love the response! I'm not a wildlife expert, but I did get strangely interested in this metaphor when I was planning a speech. One of those going down the rabbit hole things. (Another animal metaphor!) But, would you do this please? Set aside the metaphor. Finish the claim you made in your sentence, "Seems head in sand to...
by JackoC
Sat Dec 02, 2023 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

Speaking from ignorance here and hopefully someone can educate me. I have a fundamental question about all life tables. We read them as if they were predictions of the future, and I assume life insurance companies use them that way. But as with anything else, we don't know the future. These are useful and very reliable for insurance companies because they insure or annuitize large numbers of people. I'm sure they keep their own numbers for selection bias, etc. But for an individual there is too much variation to be useful for predicting a death date. If I read that the average person like me makes it to 82, do I spend down my savings so I'm broke at 82? What if the worst happens and I continue living? Seeking better statistics of life expe...
by JackoC
Sat Dec 02, 2023 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used car sold as new car
Replies: 74
Views: 6854

Re: Used car sold as new car

This is much ado about nothing. The car is new. Unless the one-day ownership by the previous buyer voided certain benefits that you expect to receive, then you have not been harmed. Don't stand on principle when it doesn't really matter. Should the dealer not stand the same pain that a buyer does, when it is commonly acknowledged that, “the moment you drive out of the lot, the value of the car drops xx%”? Is that only true for the buyer, but not the dealer when they get a second chance to sell the same car? Average car dealer ethics IME are way below (professed at least) average ethics of BH's, let's first stipulate. :happy That said some makes, I think including Hyundai, now have 'return it within X days for a full refund no questions ask...
by JackoC
Sat Dec 02, 2023 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity introducing automatic ETF investing
Replies: 158
Views: 27331

Re: Fidelity introducing automatic ETF investing

Okay Vanguard... your move now! +1 I posted this on a different thread but per my Vanguard rep last week they are trialling automatic re-investing now in brokerage accounts and he expects it to go live by the end of the year or Q1. I am watching because it is a requirement for me to move my legacy mututal fund account to brokerage. I guess from reading earlier in thread the main topic is automatic ETF investing of new money, as opposed to automatic ETF div/cg *reinvesting*. Vanguard has done automatic div (there haven't been cg dist's) reinvesting on a non-Vang ETF I have in IRA brokerage account since late 2020 when I bought it. I didn't consciously set it up that way, it must have been the default. Other ETF's in other family accounts th...
by JackoC
Sat Dec 02, 2023 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

........I've thought all long that "85±15" is about as close as you can estimate it for planning purposes. Excellent. Add all the extra details and "precision" to life expectancy calculators and you get no better answer. But, this I know a little more about than ostriches and I disagree. SSA is the mortality data for 300mil or so people we assume is relatively accurate for that whole population. Although there is by definition no proof that any now published distribution of lifespans for any population will prove accurate applied to the future, until actuaries eg. 50 yrs from now evaluate what actually happened. SSA is different than a given online personalized calculator because we know more about the organization that...
by JackoC
Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

SevenBridgesRoad wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:18 am
JackoC wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:06 am

Seems head in sand to insist that can't have any implication for investment planning.

The whole head in the sand thing is a metaphor that needs to go away. It's derived from a myth, that ostriches somehow bury their heads in the sand and ignore danger. Ostriches don't ever actually do this.

Simply claim that a person is ignoring danger and then describe the danger being ignored.
Thanks for the wildlife education. :D
by JackoC
Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Breaking CD
Replies: 11
Views: 1596

Re: Breaking CD

So it seems that you'd have around $29,900 to invest at 5.25% for 5 years. With that CD you will end up with about $38,617. If you keep the 5.5% CD, you'll have $35,070 in 26 or 27 months. If you were to reinvest that for 33 or 34 months (when a 5 year replacement CD would have matured), you'd need to get around 3.5% to equal the 5 year CD total. If my calculation is correct, I would not make that change, as my guess would be that 3.5% or more will be available in 2 years when your current CD matures. You really think CDs will be that high in 2 years? I thought maybe 1% Why do you think that? The Fed dot plot says they expect to be at around 3.5% in 2025. That would be the expectation for short term rates. Presumably by then we will have a...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does anyone use professional advisors?
Replies: 57
Views: 14592

Re: Does anyone use professional advisors?

I'm strongly considering moving to a professional advisor to manage my portfolio. Between complicated taxes - optimizing tax efficiency, some inherited accounts, and three kids coming up on college, I think it would be worth it to hire someone. I've gotten two proposals - both similar in fees and offerings - both have fees that are a % of the total dollars under management. Neither is associated with any funds/brokerages or take a cut of any commissions. I know this goes against everything this board is about. What I'm asking is if anyone has experience with using these types of firms? Questions I should ask? I think the amount they charge per year could be saved just in improving my tax efficiency. FWIW - both firms were complementary of ...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 28, 2023 9:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

You keep repeating the same generic argument. Where is the evidence? Do you have data showing the correlation between ones life expectancy and that of their parents? How about the correlation between the market valuation to the 30+ year future returns? If you believe in bond yields vs dividend yields surely you must be changing your AA based on that. I mean, if you are using it for retirement planning you should be using it for investing if it is that useful. I guess if your parents are still alive you shouldn't think about retiring? Mine our 75 years old and I've been retired 7 years. Please tell me how to specifically make this actionable. Where's the formula, calculator or whatever? On LE I'm saying (in this thread and many times before...
by JackoC
Wed Nov 22, 2023 9:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

I think this kind of thinking can lead to running out of money. Someone 300 lbs (or fill in the blank...drinker...smoker...sweet lover...) can live a long time. There is no magic calculator. You could run marathons and have every health stat looking great and die. Most types of cancer have nothing to do with lifestyle. There are accidents. Some very unhealthy people live a long time. For most Bogleheads, an extra 5 or 10 years of retirement doesn't make much of a difference when retirement planning. Use a calculator like Firecalc. In my case if I add 10 years on to my retirement my chance of success drops by only 1.5%. If you are scraping by in retirement, it will be a bigger impact. Again if one's spending/resource combination is such tha...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

I use SS tables and don’t spend more than 5 minutes per year thinking about this. Apart from lifestyle choices (tobacco use, obesity, alcohol consumption) it is non-actionable. Sure, but having a good estimate of your life expectancy is a useful financial planning device. For example, I have a good friend who just likes to eat. Must be 300+ pounds but that's who he is. He took SS at 62, retired as soon as he could. For him it was easy as he knows he's unlikely to make it past 70. For the rest of us, it's harder. I think this kind of thinking can lead to running out of money. Someone 300 lbs (or fill in the blank...drinker...smoker...sweet lover...) can live a long time. There is no magic calculator. You could run marathons and have every h...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

A major part of financial planning is getting a good estimate on your life expectancy. Most people plan as though they are going to live until 100 which is fine. Except that the SS actuarial tables say if you are 50 now, you can expect to live to 78/82 for males/females so clearly we can't all live to 100 (unless we live in Lake Wobegon)! So how are people estimating how long they'll likely live? Of course, we all live different life styles and are of different health standards. Is their a reputable life expectancy calculator that allows you to enter information and get a more realistic estimate than the SS tables. I use SS tables and don’t spend more than 5 minutes per year thinking about this. Apart from lifestyle choices (tobacco use, o...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 18, 2023 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?
Replies: 71
Views: 6813

Re: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?

Do you prefer PayPal or Venmo. I will send you all of my China, Russia, South America, Iran, North Korea and lots of other holdings. The entire continent of South America is on your bad investment list? “bad investment list” it is not mine and I didn’t call it bad investments (my first comments above made it clear that there is no right answer, all world vs developed markets and that both international strategies have merit (but I decided a couple years ago to switch to Dev Markets). Heck, look how many bogleheads say US only, no international ! Are they wrong to exclude Canada, UK etc as “bad investments” ? One can make an argument either way. They are being basically inconsistent, self identified *bogleheads* who think they know what wil...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 18, 2023 9:01 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

Calculators give estimates based on populations. The more the population under consideration resembles the study population on which the calculator is based, and the larger the population, the more accurate the calculators' predictions will be. The results of the calculators have only limited application to an individual. If the calculator gives you a life expectancy of 10 years, prudence would seem to dictate planning for a somewhat longer time period, say x+10? If you are really optimistic, x+more. After all, you never can tell. Genes, other forms of luck, prudent personal habits, and in many cases the quality of medical they receive all play their roles in health and longevity. Some guys characterized by fitness and active lifestyles wh...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 18, 2023 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

The elephant in the room is that people ought to be spending their energy planning for dementia care instead of living to 100. There is a much higher probability of the former than the latter. The statistics indicate that there is a 1 in 3 chance for males and a higher chance for females of developing dementia in their lifetime, and that's based on data gathered on people who happened to be alive. If you had included the dead ones (which Canada does), it's even higher. At a minimum, one ought to have the funds to cover 1-3 years in expensive memory care or nursing care unless you figure to offload your care onto family. After that is taken into account, maybe you can get back to how to cover the longevity lottery. I've known two people wit...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 18, 2023 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?
Replies: 71
Views: 6813

Re: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?

China is around 17% of world GDP, but its stock market is only 3% of the world equity market. If they close that gap over the next few decades, buying in at market weight today is going to have huge returns. Personally, I feel like not investing in China is too risky. Put some numbers on that rhetoric, please. The math here is a little tricky--attributing thing with exponential growth is tricky--so do check my work as I might have screwed up. Results first, then details. I think rather the starting concept might be reexamined. The reason China is only 3% of index now is that most of the stock market value there doesn't count as 'investable'. The actual total market cap was 11% of global cap ca. 2021 (would probably be at least slightly les...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 18, 2023 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?
Replies: 71
Views: 6813

Re: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?

Do you prefer PayPal or Venmo. I will send you all of my China, Russia, South America, Iran, North Korea and lots of other holdings. The entire continent of South America is on your bad investment list? “bad investment list” it is not mine and I didn’t call it bad investments (my first comments above made it clear that there is no right answer, all world vs developed markets and that both international strategies have merit (but I decided a couple years ago to switch to Dev Markets). Heck, look how many bogleheads say US only, no international ! Are they wrong to exclude Canada, UK etc as “bad investments” ? One can make an argument either way. They are being basically inconsistent, self identified *bogleheads* who think they know what wil...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?
Replies: 71
Views: 6813

Re: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?

China is around 17% of world GDP, but its stock market is only 3% of the world equity market. That's mainly just because you can't really invest in most of their companies. China does not allow foreign ownership. Chinese stock bought outside of China is actually shares in a shell company that funnels money back to China where the stock is bought on your behalf. But you have no true legal protections or ownership. China could decide to rug pull this whole industry by closing the accounting loophole. The shell company could fold. If China had a directly investible developed stock market like the US or UK, it would likely be 17% of the equity market worldwide. See above. Those numbers were from quick searching a/o 2023. More solid but slightl...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 17, 2023 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?
Replies: 71
Views: 6813

Re: Is VXUS investing in China too Risky?

China is around 17% of world GDP, but its stock market is only 3% of the world equity market. If they close that gap over the next few decades, buying in at market weight today is going to have huge returns. Personally, I feel like not investing in China is too risky. I'd just note that's the 'investable' weight per major index providers, eg. FTSE Global All Cap Index so Vanguard's VT China weight is 3.1% vs US 60.90%. But the total value of the Chinese stock market was recently given as $10-12tril v US $45tril*. Not arguing that 'investable' is the wrong measure but in some cases 'investable' v total is very different. The classic case is if we want 'market' exposure to real estate and say we owned none. 'Investable' RE as in REIT's in to...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

This exercise is only useful in the opposite direction. If you've ALREADY been diagnosed with something or you smoke like a chimney, etc.One might be able to assume you're likely to die earlier than average. 1. This. 2. The idea of "good genes" and family longevity is mostly fictional, the correlation between parent and child longevity is close to zero in studies. 3. The effects of a) smoking, and b) biological maleness are "plannable," maybe. Smoking does subtract ten years, maleness subtracts five. 4. There are some diseases that do have high heritability and "run in families" that predictably shorten life expectancy. 5. But just forget the calculators that ask if you eat right and keep fit and spit out a nu...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 14, 2023 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect
Replies: 202
Views: 23449

Re: Estimating Life Expectancy Accurately - Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect

"Defying the Lake Wobegon Effect" But there's really two sides to the 'Lake Wobegon Effect'. The more common one is to warn against assuming you're 'above average' by pointing out the absurdity of everyone assuming that. But the other side of the coin is upper Midwest (surface, anyway) humility where'd you'd ignore cases where you are obviously above average even though everyone else (obviously) can't be. The SSA basic table is a good guide if you really are average in health history, habits, previous exposure (used to smoke, used to work around toxic materials) etc. including all the people in that table who are already in poor health at say 60-something (when most people start to focus more on this, estimating your LE when you'r...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 14, 2023 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International equity - to hedge currency or not
Replies: 8
Views: 1568

Re: International equity - to hedge currency or not

There aren't very many hedged equity funds or unhedged bond funds. I think that answers the question -- the market has determined that hedging equity is not worth the cost. Hedging bonds makes more sense as you are using that for income (even if you reinvest) and you want that income in the currency that matches your expenses. The cost of hedging is negligible. The funds probably do it with futures or swaps, or you can do it yourself with currency futures. I agree, it's not cost in the proper sense of transactions cost which are now very small. It's simply that foreign currency bonds are a promise to pay a certain number of foreign currency units at dates in the future so their USD value is highly correlated to the USD value of those curre...
by JackoC
Tue Nov 14, 2023 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?
Replies: 241
Views: 18734

Re: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?

1. If two funds from different providers are using the same index, all we have to do is see how closely the fund tracks that index. The one with the highest return (generally, the lowest tracking error) has the lowest "expenses" if we include the definition of "expenses" to cover execution of trades, etc. That's the expense as seen by the holder of the fund ... which is all I care about. 2. I don't care where Fidelity's (or Schwabs or Vanguard's) profits "went" anymore than I care where my grocery store chain's profits went. Many many companies have product lines with different profit margins. Car makers will sell me a bare-bones economy sedan, but they make their money off luxury brands (and domestically... r...
by JackoC
Mon Nov 13, 2023 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 5973
Views: 689698

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

(you also often now see those UK actors playing Americans in US show, whilst even US characters in UK shows are often Brit actors, only rare cases of US actors playing Brits in Brit shows, for whatever reasons). I think Michael C Hall in Safe scared casting directors off from casting Americans as Brits. I am not an accent maven, but his character provided unintended humor with his laughable accent. I was thinking of that as one of the rare exceptions. John Lithgow as Churchill in 'The Crown' is another, surely not the only two but rare. Not counting British-Americans (eg. Gillian Anderson). As to accent slips, Dominic West was pretty notorious for that in 'The Wire', he worked for Lt 'Dahniels', etc. though obviously a successful performan...
by JackoC
Mon Nov 13, 2023 9:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 5973
Views: 689698

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

I wonder how widespread this "factor" is (is there a name for it?) or to what degree actors take it into account. For me/us, it's an involuntary reaction, sort of a one-trial learning episode. :annoyed I've thought about that too. Other people have mentioned similar reactions so it can't be that rare. It's probably related to the more common type-casting where an actor's role in a single TV series or movie defines their subsequent career. I think that is the original idea of 'typecasting' in the movie-only era, that an actor would be a particular type of character, esp. bad v good guy. Though I agree with you in the TV era we tend to think of it as an actor who played the same exact character for years, as you can on TV, and the ...
by JackoC
Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?
Replies: 241
Views: 18734

Re: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?

The Total Stock Market fund fee, at 7 basis points? (0.07%) is nothing short of incredible. And yet... SWTSX: 0.03 FSKAX: 0.015 FZROX: 0.00 What is the total cost of each of these? Yes, as we discussed before, small differences in ER could be outweighed by interaction of 'transaction costs' (not in ER) and 'expenses' (in ER) via agreements with market makers, or one fund's trading team could just be a little better at execution. Plus as was pointed out, Total Stock Market VTSAX (tickers might have to be looked up by some posters but are a precise way of designating exactly which fund) is 0.04% and the ETF is VTI 0.03%. Plus for some, the effect of ER on choosing a stock fund is highly 'path dependent'. If you've held a stock fund in taxabl...
by JackoC
Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?
Replies: 241
Views: 18734

Re: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?

Last year Schwab paid $2 billion in dividends and $3.4 billion in buybacks to it's outside owners. Vanguard paid zero to outside owners. I think that makes a difference, even if it doesn't make a difference to you. Where do you think Schwab got that $5.4 billion they paid out? It came out of investors pockets even if you think it didn't come out of yours. We can figure that out. My question, as a owner, is where Vanguard’s billions went to. Exactly so. My question also. We can see that with respect to the total bond index funds, Fidelity appears to harvest a profit by having a lower admin cost than Vanguard. FXNAX had an ER of .025% but per the most recent annual report (10/2023), the actual cost was .02%. FXNAX reported no securities lend...
by JackoC
Sun Nov 12, 2023 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?
Replies: 241
Views: 18734

Re: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?

Last year Schwab paid $2 billion in dividends and $3.4 billion in buybacks to it's outside owners. Vanguard paid zero to outside owners. I think that makes a difference, even if it doesn't make a difference to you. Where do you think Schwab got that $5.4 billion they paid out? It came out of investors pockets even if you think it didn't come out of yours. We can figure that out. My question, as a owner, is where Vanguard’s billions went to. Exactly so. My question also. But other than general curiosity, though fair enough, what would you do with that information? The pricing Vanguard offers 'is what it is', as is Fido/Schwab's. You choose depending on that pricing and your needs. I don't see why it's important to know 'where did the profit...
by JackoC
Sun Nov 12, 2023 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?
Replies: 241
Views: 18734

Re: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?

Well, let's agree that for most of the history of Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab, it very much did matter, as Vanguard forced its competitors to drop loads, add index funds, and reduce ERs. And it should matter, as if I'm sworn to extracting as much money as I can from your account for the benefit of my shareholders, I'm going to behave differently than if my customers are my shareholders. And there's some evidence, see the link in my original post, that it has mattered. Yet today, those other two have lower ERs than Vanguard! Have lower ER's on some funds. But besides the most generic stock and bond funds Vang's ER's still tend to be lower. That's particularly relevant for fixed income if you use funds but aren't a believer in 'total bond...
by JackoC
Sun Nov 12, 2023 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?
Replies: 241
Views: 18734

Re: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?

Well, let's agree that for most of the history of Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab, it very much did matter, as Vanguard forced its competitors to drop loads, add index funds, and reduce ERs. And it should matter, as if I'm sworn to extracting as much money as I can from your account for the benefit of my shareholders, I'm going to behave differently than if my customers are my shareholders. And there's some evidence, see the link in my original post, that it has mattered. Yet today, those other two have lower ERs than Vanguard! Have lower ER's on some funds. But besides the most generic stock and bond funds Vang's ER's still tend to be lower. That's particularly relevant for fixed income if you use funds but aren't a believer in 'total bond...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 11, 2023 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?
Replies: 241
Views: 18734

Re: Is Vanguard the ethical choice, or am I living in the past?

I don't think ethics is the term I would use for my expectations from a arms length business partner. What I expect is honesty and transparency regarding our specific relationship. So long as they clear that bar, I'm good. After that, it is purely a benefit cost calculation. Can the partner execute, do I get good value from the relationship relative to alternatives, if I need to switch, how painful is it going to be, etc. I also vote for this summary. Everyone is entitled to their view but IMO easy to become offputtingly paternalistic about how various institutions hoodwink 'other people' especially in context of adults in a free society with enough money to be likely to have even heard of Vanguard, Schwab or Fidelity. It's up to them how ...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 11, 2023 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accident with uninsured driver
Replies: 100
Views: 10972

Re: Accident with uninsured driver

If the other person had no insurance it's very likely they have no money either. You can have all the lawsuits in the world but who is going to pay you exactly? Your auto coverage seems out of context here since you were not in an automobile accident with your vehicle. Not sure if your umbrella policy applies here since you aren't being sued (it's the opposite). Their auto coverage is the only one remaining but whether they had permission to drive the vehicle is key for coverage to apply. Just to reiterate, Uninsured Motorist coverage on your auto policy is not out of context generally. Many states require UIM to pay when you're hit by an uninsured motorist while a pedestrian/cyclist. A personal injury lawyer in the state should know if th...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 11, 2023 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 5973
Views: 689698

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

Extraordinary Attorney Woo: South Korean, Netflix series about a Korean attorney who is on the autism spectrum but an intellectual savant who is high functioning intellectually. Each episode focuses on a specific case that is resolved, interspersed with developing personal themes. Interesting and has a message that is thought provoking. Tim As was brought up in some earlier posts, the cultural aspects are interesting in addition to the autism ones. I'm enjoying the different customs and the distinctly South Korean issues that arise (can we say North Korean defectors?). Also, just seeing the scenery and vegetation is interesting. This series is a lot deeper than the Astrid series I often mention. I just wish I knew how to address Koreans by...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 11, 2023 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Accident with uninsured driver
Replies: 100
Views: 10972

Re: Accident with uninsured driver

Hello Bogleheads, Sorry for the long post, I wanted to give all the relevant details to assess the situation. About a week ago, on my bicycle commute (in CA), I was hit by a car while stopped at a red light. The driver smashed into my bicycle, damaging it severely, and I fell on the asphalt. When I got home from the ER I called my own insurance, GEICO, with whom I have auto and umbrella policies, and they said there’s nothing they could do for me, I was a pedestrian in this accident and I should deal with the brother’s insurance directly. Having never been in a situation like this and quite frankly overwhelmed and disappointed by nobody helping me in a tough situation, I called one local attorney office specialized in injuries with good re...
by JackoC
Sat Nov 11, 2023 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2023 Lexus GX Finance or Cash
Replies: 68
Views: 8072

Re: 2023 Lexus GX Finance or Cash

If you finance a vehicle, are you required to have a certain level or type(s) of insurance coverage? If so, and if you wouldn’t carry that level or type(s) of insurance coverage if the vehicle was paid off, then I suppose that you should add the extra insurance cost into the calculation of whether financing makes sense. I don't know that omitting collision and comprehensive insurance on a brand new $65k car is a financially savvy move, regardless of whether you're carrying a loan on it. Being willing to eat a $5k loss in the event something happens is a very different mindset than doing the same on something 13x the value. The insurance companies seem to do just fine taking that bet. I don't care if it's a smart thing for the insurance com...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 10, 2023 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a 120k car... yes, I need your help
Replies: 275
Views: 33145

Re: Buying a 120k car... yes, I need your help

I would love to have a Porsche Cayman GTS 4.0 or a 911 (even a base would be fine). I would never track it. If I got the itch to track again, I'd find a Miata that's been time trialed or autocrossed for the last decade so I would have the safety and performance equipment in place and drive the Porsche only on the street. In some sense buying a high performance car and never tracking it is using the the car like a purchase of jewelry, something bought because it looks cool and not for functionality since many cheaper cars can have the same road performance. ... Also tracking risk isn’t just about the car damage. If you crash you could injury yourself and not just the car. Someone could afford a $120k loss off a car but no amount of money ca...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 10, 2023 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a 120k car... yes, I need your help
Replies: 275
Views: 33145

Re: Buying a 120k car... yes, I need your help

Back in the old days, a reason for getting a more expensive sports car would be more power. However, we live in a world in which a $53K Tesla Model 3 can do 0-60 in just over 3 seconds and the 1/4 mile in 11.8 seconds. In comparison, the 120K Porsche GT4 does the 1/4 mile in 12.6 seconds. With the proliferation of cheap EV's, there will be a host of inexpensive cars out there that will absolute embarrass the priciest ICE exotics. ...Unless you are going to track the cars, you can get same level of enjoyment on the street from a Miata or a used base Cayman/Boxster for a fraction of the cost. I would love to have a Porsche Cayman GTS 4.0 or a 911 (even a base would be fine). I would never track it. If I got the itch to track again, I'd find ...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 10, 2023 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are treasuries instead of corporate bonds a mistake for people in low-tax states?
Replies: 19
Views: 2325

Re: Are treasuries instead of corporate bonds a mistake for people in low-tax states?

Most corporate bonds are callable. And you’re likely to pay state taxes. Another alternative is preferred stock, where you can get both higher rates and qualified dividends. But then you still have call risk. Are we assuming people are buying individual bonds and not corporate bond funds? I don't worry about callability in the context of a fund. I always assume individual. I hate funds for fixed income. If it’s a fund, and the underlying bonds get called, then the yield for the fund is still going to drop faster than a treasury only equivalent fund. The corporate fund is going to start higher though, but it could drop faster. It's important to make the distinction between bond fund and individual bonds (strictly held to maturity or default...
by JackoC
Fri Nov 10, 2023 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are treasuries instead of corporate bonds a mistake for people in low-tax states?
Replies: 19
Views: 2325

Re: Are treasuries instead of corporate bonds a mistake for people in low-tax states?

I guess what I'm essentially asking here is: How can the tiny increase in credit quality of treasuries be worth the significantly lower yield they offer compared to investment-grade paper? Comparable duration of treasuries to BBB+ funds have like a full 100 bps lower yield. Does anyone have the stats on how often investment-grade corporates default? I assume the equity would have to go to zero before that happens, which seems extremely unlikely for companies like Boeing, Pepsi, etc. In a similar vein, would I be a sucker for not buying high-yield? Vanguard's CCC+ is like 250 bps over comparable-duration treasuries. How often do those default? The considerations I could think of besides credit risk are: 1) Corporate bond income is taxable a...
by JackoC
Thu Oct 26, 2023 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How lower can TLT drop from here? [iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF]
Replies: 87
Views: 11031

Re: How lower can TLT drop from here?

Have you seen the national debt? 30 trillion and counting. 5% effective interest rate would put the interest payment at 1.5trillion. That is 30% of the total federal tax revenues. I understand. However, I very clearly remember many people screaming rates wouldn’t go above 4% because of similar reasons. That’s precisely why people bought things like TMF (3x leveraged TLT basically) and are seriously in the red. They were 100% positive something couldn’t/wouldn’t ever happen. I believe TLT can and may drop a very long way from here. We can agree to disagree. This is not 70s period. Demographics is different, debt levels are huge. Private and public debt combined is 360% of GDP. This will crash the economy faster than you think. Nominal rates...