Search found 2168 matches

by JackoC
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medicare Advantage - What's the Deal?
Replies: 102
Views: 5872

Re: Medicare Advantage - What's the Deal?

Having just started Medicare in February, my antennae have been up with this sort of advertising for the past year or so. But I have to say, the quality of information is beyond ludicrous in many cases. In retrospect, I think it's completely safe to ignore all of this stuff. People say Medicare is ...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Snowbirds establishing FL residency from Northeast- Residency audits
Replies: 34
Views: 2987

Re: Snowbirds establishing FL residency from Northeast- Residency audits

I had this idea that , if coming from a high tax state (in my case, MA) , all you had to do to change residency to FL and reap its tax benefits was the simple stuff....live there 183 days/year, get a FL drivers license+registration, register to vote in FL ,establish domicile, etc. But the more I re...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 17, 2021 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: C8 Corvette?
Replies: 44
Views: 3752

Re: C8 Corvette?

The other problem with Corvettes compared to their competition is that although they are an absolute bargain to buy, once the restricted supply clears, they depreciate like a rock. The Corvette has one of the lowest depreciation rates of any mass-produced vehicle out there. I don't know where you g...
by JackoC
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13913

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

Sometimes the reason I think. If you're working hard and scrimping to put together a portfolio that will work at 4% SWR and somebody tells you it's not enough, it's a bummer. People will rationalize why the bearer of unwelcome news must be wrong, Human Nature 101 (the bearer of bad news isn't neces...
by JackoC
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13913

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

Wade Pfau has made a career out of writing articles espousing absurdly low withdrawal rates. Seriously, it's the thing he's known for. It's like he's encouraging his clients to have larger than necessary portfolios because he makes more money that way. A little like the perma-bears that way I guess...
by JackoC
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13913

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

Which is certainly possible. But the real question is what you assume for future variance of stock return. It's clear expected return of stocks now is lower than past long term average return. Stock valuations are much higher now, as they basically *should* be because expected return on the safer a...
by JackoC
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13913

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

The model used at ERN is much more problematic than the one used by Pfau and most other professionals. We’ve proved this wrong over and over again, vineviz.... You’re mistaken, I’m afraid. Expecting real bond yields of -1% to provide the same SWR as real bond yields of +2% is a common error, but an...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 10, 2021 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How P/E ratios and other multiples are grossly misused
Replies: 28
Views: 2550

Re: How P/E ratios and other multiples are grossly misused - even by professionals

But as n approaches infinity that equation converges to DCF=CF/r, assuming CF and r are constant: the value of a perpetual is in fact a(n inverse) linear function of the discount rate. This equation has even had direct real world application. For example the 2-3/4% British government 'consol' perpe...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How P/E ratios and other multiples are grossly misused
Replies: 28
Views: 2550

Re: How P/E ratios and other multiples are grossly misused - even by professionals

Let's look at the most popular multiple, the price-to-earnings ratio. On the surface, it seems like a swiss army knife. It directly relates price to earnings. https://www.gstatic.com/education/formulas2/355397047/en/discounted_cash_flow.svg DCF = discounted cash flow CF_i = cash flow period i r = i...
by JackoC
Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board
Replies: 281
Views: 20643

Re: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board

Getting very cheap cars breaks down at higher income due to both financial triviality and subjecting your family, again assuming one, to higher risk of death or life altering injury. Especially when the examples of very cheap cars are also small ones: multiple of IIHS death rate stats for old small...
by JackoC
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board
Replies: 281
Views: 20643

Re: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board

Getting very cheap cars breaks down at higher income due to both financial triviality and subjecting your family, again assuming one, to higher risk of death or life altering injury. Especially when the examples of very cheap cars are also small ones: multiple of IIHS death rate stats for old small...
by JackoC
Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board
Replies: 281
Views: 20643

Re: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board

If you hit tree at 75 mph, I'd consider that driver error. Again, a post that tries to categorize all possibilities into a simplistic narrative that fits ones world-view. Reality is far more complicated than that. People - even ourselves or those we love, do make errors. Medical events happen. Acci...
by JackoC
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2019 Porsche Macan Excessive Tire Noise: Options?
Replies: 54
Views: 3659

Re: 2019 Porsche Macan Excessive Tire Noise: Options?

bogledogle recommended Michelin Pilot Sport 4S as a much quieter option. After doing some research on this tire to confirm that it would probably be a quieter option, I was disappointed to find out that it is not available in the sizes on the front or rear of my car. 235/60R18 103V (front) and 255/...
by JackoC
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board
Replies: 281
Views: 20643

Re: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board

But I always hear people (even on this forum) say that they dont know how people got so much money. I think its fair to say that an easy place to look is in the driveway and if you are struggling to save for retirement your cars are probably a bug reason for this. Another poster mentioned people bu...
by JackoC
Wed Apr 07, 2021 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board
Replies: 281
Views: 20643

Re: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board

I'm in shock someone would waste $500 on a round of golf and $200 on a dinner. I'm guessing most folks who will drop $500 on a round of golf have enough income and/or wealth that a $700 car payment won't be the difference between accumulating wealth or not. I did the cheap car thing until my late 2...
by JackoC
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the case for international bonds?
Replies: 28
Views: 2101

Re: What is the case for international bonds?

I see that Vanguard incorporates international bonds into their Target Date and LifeStrategy funds. Can someone enlighten me on the following: 1) Are international bonds necessary for diversification? 2) What are the behavioral differences between domestic and international bonds? 3) What is the co...
by JackoC
Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?
Replies: 48
Views: 4696

Re: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?

I would rather own a FDIC savings account paying 0.5% interests rather than a 5 year Treasury bill paying 0.9%. A total bond market fund has credit risk so it will pay a bit more. So, after subtracting 0.1% ER for a bond fund you have a humongous yield of 0.3% for 5 years of term risk. While I unde...
by JackoC
Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ibond really a good vehicle against inflation
Replies: 56
Views: 4761

Re: Ibond really a good vehicle against inflation

The gal who owes the money (lets call her Janet) is the gal who computes the inflation rate. And Janet does not actually have the political will or financial ability to repay the loan in full. Do you trust Janet? I don't. Dr. Janet Yellen is the Secretary of the Treasury. The inflation rate is calc...
by JackoC
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AWD vs 2WD in up state new york
Replies: 53
Views: 3306

Re: AWD vs 2WD in up state new york

Maybe some of the physicists on BH can help me out, but I thought that on a curve you needed to be accelerating against the forces that are trying to keep you going in a straight line. I would imagine that AWD would be better than 2wd at this. My recollection of physics is the same as yours re acce...
by JackoC
Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My Next Car: Tesla S vs BMW 540iX
Replies: 25
Views: 2925

Re: My Next Car: Tesla S vs BMW 540iX

Apples and oranges. I'd get the BMW with the thought in mind that it is a well-engineered and fine-performing car which might be my last equipped with an internal combustion engine as electric vehicles and their supporting infrastructure mature and improve. Tesla seems to evoke strong loyalty from ...
by JackoC
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ibond really a good vehicle against inflation
Replies: 56
Views: 4761

Re: Ibond really a good vehicle against inflation

Regardless of whether or not CPI-U is a good measure of the inflation in anyone's personal expenses, that interest rate in an I Bond is higher rate then I can get in comparable savings vehicles. Yeah the point about '5-10% hike' is completely irrelevant to I-bond v TIPS, a common comparison. 5 yr* ...
by JackoC
Sun Apr 04, 2021 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any reason to file taxes before May 17?
Replies: 34
Views: 3637

Re: Any reason to file taxes before May 17?

Both the IRS and my state (CA) have extended the tax filing deadline to May 17. If I owe, is there any reason to file before then? If you pay estimated tax Q1 is still due April 15. I much prefer to finish a tax return and accurately calculate following year's required minimum estimated than actual...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 03, 2021 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]
Replies: 2756
Views: 274535

Re: [What TV Show Have You Recently Watched?]

Just finished S2 of "Patriot" on Amazon Prime. Started watching it with my wife, who thought it was ok but bailed after 3 episodes... "Written for guys" was her critique. By the time I got to S2, I realized she was right... and I enjoyed it very much. Quirky, often implausible a...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: AWD vs 2WD in up state new york
Replies: 53
Views: 3306

Re: AWD vs 2WD in up state new york

Ground clearance comes into play. The Odyssey has 4.5 inches, the pilot has 7.3. I’ve had an AWD pilot on all seasons out in 8in of snow without problem, but at some point you will start to have problems with elevation change and plowing or snow pushing up on the floorpan and taking the weight off ...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I keep 2 vehicles or 1 vehicle?
Replies: 27
Views: 2773

Re: Do I keep 2 vehicles or 1 vehicle?

Why is someone selling you a $35k vehicle for $5k? Seller could be a really good friend or family member. Lots of threads are chuckle generators for somebody laying out an odd scenario and not answering the obvious question it poses. In this case, who is selling a car that far off market and why? I...
by JackoC
Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?
Replies: 12
Views: 963

Re: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?

As I said earlier linking Pub 550. However, the question here is whether the pattern sell SPY, buy ES, wait wash sale period+, sell ES, buy SPY disallows the loss on *SPY* as a wash sale. Nobody is saying there's wash sale treatment of the p/l of the ES trades. And in the 'constructive sale' case (...
by JackoC
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?
Replies: 12
Views: 963

Re: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?

Wash sales don’t apply to futures contracts, only to stock and options. See Pub 550. The Substantially identical test doesn’t matter since you can’t have a wash sale with the sec 1256 futures leg. https://www.irs.gov/publications/p550#en_US_2019_publink100010601 Options and futures contracts. The w...
by JackoC
Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?
Replies: 12
Views: 963

Re: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?

ZN is a futures contract on a nominal 10 yr note though the delivery specs tend to result (in recent rate/coupon situation) in the cheapest to deliver issue into the contract being a 7-8yr treasury. TLT is a fund tracking the ICE US Treasury 20+ yr index. I will admit that I am conservative on this...
by JackoC
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?
Replies: 12
Views: 963

Re: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?

Treasury note/bond futures v TLT should not raise this issue because the futures (held to expiry though you virtually never would) are a commitment to buy one of a range of eligible treasury issues (the 'cheapest to deliver' would be actually be delivered) not an index such as the fund tracks. ZN i...
by JackoC
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?
Replies: 12
Views: 963

Re: Can you use a futures contract as tax loss harvesting partner?

Like using 10y Treasury future ZN for TLT or S&P500 future ES for SPY? My CPA said Treasury futures for a bond fund would work. I'm not so sure. Does anybody have experience? I assume you mean, for example, you hold shares of SPY with an unrealized capital loss you want to recognize without cha...
by JackoC
Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Spending money and living now VS saving and living better later?
Replies: 82
Views: 17321

Re: Spending money and living now VS saving and living better later?

32 Married, no kids (trying for one currently), no debt other than mortgage. We make combined ~143k combined (plus call shifts/bonuses) Sigz, Let's say you save 40K per year. And, your taxes are 1/3 = 40K. You are spending 63K per year. How much is your house? How much is your mortgage? Why do you ...
by JackoC
Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can my father see the light?
Replies: 53
Views: 6196

Re: How can my father see the light?

The risk with “pushing” your dad into a boglehead set-up is that the market goes sideways afterwards. Yes, it will all be macroeconomic stuff, but it may also “be your fault.” It’s an issue of trust. He trusts this advisor. Yeah, the randomness of markets means there's hardly a such thing as guaran...
by JackoC
Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I stop working? [New car discussion]
Replies: 63
Views: 3303

Re: Can I stop working?

I think data is just data. If my 25 year old car weight is 5000lb and yours is 2000lb, who do you think get more impact in an accident? Just because it's a new car, it doesn't make it more safe. Heavy steel vs modern crumple zones (as a 2009 the modern car is really a generation back from current s...
by JackoC
Tue Mar 30, 2021 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Can I stop working? [New car discussion]
Replies: 63
Views: 3303

Re: Can I stop working?

LBYM is so engrained in me. Depression era parents who did well but were never extravagant. Grandparents who retired early on pensions, but with little education - prison guard, toll booth collector. I’ve been a Boglehead for years, lurking even in the M* days. Meanwhile my colleagues own second an...
by JackoC
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?
Replies: 111
Views: 10657

Re: Curious about negative expat experiences -- why don't more people do it?

The area I'm targeting is in Southeast Asia. Anytime you look on the web or this forum, the feedback concerning the advisability of taking an expat gig is usually positive. This puzzles me, because 99% of people (even white collar professionals) don't take an expat gig, so if it's so wonderful, why...
by JackoC
Tue Mar 30, 2021 8:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost for COVID test for travel
Replies: 19
Views: 1638

Re: Cost for COVID test for travel

Approved tests at CVS and Walgreens are usually covered by insurance. I've had 4 of them @ zero cost. I'm also confused by the question. I've only had one COVID related test (antibody, positive, infection tests still hard to get when I had symptoms) but free and no questions why I wanted it. The st...
by JackoC
Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Subarus so popular?
Replies: 114
Views: 6239

Re: Why are Subarus so popular?

duplicate
by JackoC
Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:37 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Subarus so popular?
Replies: 114
Views: 6239

Re: Why are Subarus so popular?

Wow, this is interesting psychology! I don't know anyone with a Subaru that feels intellectually superior as a result. It's not a flashy car - I always see people looking at it for practical reasons (AWD, safe, albeit kind of boring). Agreed - weird take. Most of my freinds/coworkers with intellect...
by JackoC
Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Subarus so popular?
Replies: 114
Views: 6239

Re: Why are Subarus so popular?

Subarus are overrated in my opinion. Their overall performance, reliability, safety features and aesthitics are not particulary noteworthy compared to other brands. That nifty all wheel drive thing they have going on is a dime a dozen now. Subaru owners remind me a lot of Volvo drivers from the 80'...
by JackoC
Sun Mar 28, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Loan - Minimum Interest - Repaid by Annual Gift - Tax Implications
Replies: 66
Views: 3100

Re: Family Loan - Minimum Interest - Repaid by Annual Gift - Tax Implications

I would just go down that list and be reasonably satisfied you've avoided those particular pitfalls of the loan in that case (eg. no fixed maturity, no interest at all, borrowers' plausible theoretical means to pay it back without help, etc). Then I would make the loan, and give $60k total (4*15) g...
by JackoC
Sun Mar 28, 2021 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Loan at .9%?
Replies: 70
Views: 4686

Re: Car Loan at .9%?

That rate is more than free money as it's less than inflation, as long as you invest the money you would have paid in cash. However, typically manufacturers add the cost into the price of the vehicle. So as Leesbro63 stated, what's the real price? Is this actually true? Maybe I'm not a great negoti...
by JackoC
Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ethical question about PayPal transaction
Replies: 16
Views: 1332

Re: Ethical question about PayPal transaction

I think OP is in the clear ethically. Being ethical is not the same as being kind. Since I strive to be ethical and kind, I'd contact the seller. I'd make a similar distinction. If a commercial provider of goods fails to follow up on payment I made a good faith effort to make but failed that's thei...
by JackoC
Sun Mar 28, 2021 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Loan - Minimum Interest - Repaid by Annual Gift - Tax Implications
Replies: 66
Views: 3100

Re: Family Loan - Minimum Interest - Repaid by Annual Gift - Tax Implications

There are two questions that no commenter has addressed so far. 1. Have I correctly understood the IRS rules re minimum interest? In other words, does an interest rate of 0.12% meet the current rule for a 3 year loan entered into in April, 2021? (See the link provided in the OP.) 2. The loan calls ...
by JackoC
Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33730

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

E[r]=L*mu-(L-1)r-0.5*L(L-1)*vol^2-ER/L I do acknowledge that financing costs also have to be subtracted from the leveraged ETF returns, but I don't think it's as easy as simply subtracting the 12-month LIBOR rate from the yearly leveraged ETF return, as it has been proposed in the "Simulating ...
by JackoC
Sat Mar 27, 2021 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Loan at .9%?
Replies: 70
Views: 4686

Re: Car Loan at .9%?

That rate is more than free money as it's less than inflation, as long as you invest the money you would have paid in cash. However, typically manufacturers add the cost into the price of the vehicle. So as Leesbro63 stated, what's the real price? Is this actually true? Maybe I'm not a great negoti...
by JackoC
Sat Mar 27, 2021 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33730

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

All of these calculations related to borrowing assume that each LETF is being run in isolation. The providers run positive and inverse versions against each other. There is no borrowing needed for the fraction of the assets that pair up; gains in one exactly match losses in the other, just transfer...
by JackoC
Fri Mar 26, 2021 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33730

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

There's a fundamental relationship between earnings yield and expected real return under somewhat realistic assumptions, 1/CAPE is a more stable expression of that than 1/spot PE, and 1/CAPE is sub 3% now, add back inflation expectation of 2% and you get around 5% nominal expected return. But mainl...
by JackoC
Fri Mar 26, 2021 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33730

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

2. Second one first, the borrowing cost is not included in the ER. So we'd be confusing ourselves to speak of higher ER when rates are higher. The drag of financing (taken in isolation) is higher when rates are higher, but the ER is presumably constant (or falling/rising with actual costs and compe...
by JackoC
Fri Mar 26, 2021 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33730

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

All of these calculations related to borrowing assume that each LETF is being run in isolation. The providers run positive and inverse versions against each other. There is no borrowing needed for the fraction of the assets that pair up; gains in one exactly match losses in the other, just transfer...
by JackoC
Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 701
Views: 33730

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

Right, but as mentioned in other post and maybe not 100% clear in mine, the borrowing cost and expense ratio are completely separate. No reason to think the ER would be higher when interest rates are higher, but the borrowing cost which is in addition to the ER would be higher. In fact the ER does ...