Search found 151 matches

by Pawpatrol
Sat Mar 13, 2021 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it feel bubbly to you?
Replies: 214
Views: 15660

Re: Does it feel bubbly to you?

Similar story, young preretire who after this year won the game (25x). Not sure what to do with AA. At 60:40 (im 40) but wonder if even 60% is too much in this madness.
by Pawpatrol
Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 1091
Views: 90348

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

If one is forced to (or chooses to) hold bonds in a taxable account, another benefit of EDV is its volatility, which can lead to tax loss harvesting opportunities. I don't see why the consideration of holding EDV in a taxable account would be different than holding any other Treasury bond fund ther...
by Pawpatrol
Sun Feb 28, 2021 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 384
Views: 26908

Re: Gold continues to soar!

I like FNV (franco nevada)
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 384
Views: 26908

Re: Gold continues to soar!

As a goldbug I'm more than happy for gold to slip below $1,500, gold miners to slide, and for the inflation narrative to be delayed. Gold can't do much for a portfolio above $2k IMHO. You think 2k USD is the peak? If bitcoin didnt exist we would be way past 2k at this point. BTC and altcoins are a ...
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold continues to soar!
Replies: 384
Views: 26908

Re: Gold continues to soar!

Lets get this thread soaring again. The negativity on gold is building- pretty much everyone thinks this is going down now to 1600 or lower. With so much volatility in bonds, equities, and commodities right now, im thinking gold is getting more attractive as diversification. No one knows how this qe...
by Pawpatrol
Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 657
Views: 54367

Re: Bonds in free fall

Gold prices had been depressed by the gold standard like a compressed spring, and when the US abandoned it they took off. The starting value surely would have been higher before the inflation got going. We are also today living in times of unprecedented monetary policy. I will continue to stay dive...
by Pawpatrol
Thu Feb 25, 2021 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 657
Views: 54367

Re: Bonds in free fall

Look at the brightside- LTT went down less than sp500/TSM...brutal out there
by Pawpatrol
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Money: what's the justification for buying Bonds in 2021?
Replies: 25
Views: 2959

Re: New Money: what's the justification for buying Bonds in 2021?

Long term treasuries now have positive real rate of return. The only duration that is true for.
by Pawpatrol
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETFs for inflationary environments
Replies: 11
Views: 983

Re: ETFs for inflationary environments

It seems to me that with all these inflation posts and short term bond posts that this inflation thesis has run its course. Small cap value i have been selling at these levels fwiw which does well in inflationary env
by Pawpatrol
Tue Feb 23, 2021 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

Update since 2/12 (orig post)
The muni: treasury 10 yr ratio is up to 0.74 up from 0.56 on 2/12
During this time:
VWLUX: -1.7%
VWIUX: -1.3%
BND: -1.0%
VGIT: -0.6%
VGLT: -3.4%
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 1091
Views: 90348

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

If one is forced to (or chooses to) hold bonds in a taxable account, another benefit of EDV is its volatility, which can lead to tax loss harvesting opportunities. I don't see why the consideration of holding EDV in a taxable account would be different than holding any other Treasury bond fund ther...
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling All Prognosticators [10 year rate forecast]
Replies: 12
Views: 983

Re: Calling All Prognosticators [10 year rate forecast]

skime wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:37 pm Any guesses at what the 10 year rate will be by year end?
0.6%
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Forester wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 4:49 pm Despite being "dead", small cap value is exactly neck-and-neck with the S&P 500 since the March 2009 low, still cheap relatively, and has all the momentum.
As a moderate tilter myself i think the top is in today.

Moved my scv tilt from 50% to 40% and moved proceeds to bonds.
by Pawpatrol
Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 657
Views: 54367

Re: Bonds in free fall

It's only a matter of time until stocks go into free fall and performance chasers pile back into EDV again at the top. Agreed. If you put into stockcharts “spy:tlt” on the weekly view and look at last 20 years you will see that typically when sp500 gets this out of whack with LTT it usually is a to...
by Pawpatrol
Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 657
Views: 54367

Re: Bonds in free fall

In this thread we're all bogleheads, we don't market time, we don't get greedy or fearful, and we understand the the only free lunch is diversity.... except when it comes to bonds, especially those long treasury bonds that have literally been the greatest asset to accompany equities. Cracks me up t...
by Pawpatrol
Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds in free fall
Replies: 657
Views: 54367

Re: Bonds in free fall

LTT are on sale folks and are disconnected from the rest of the US bond market. I can show people graphs if people care. One of the few benefits of being a retail investor is that your positioning doesnt impact price and you can take advantage of rare opportunities. Just like munis in march 2020 (bu...
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 15, 2021 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CASH versus BONDS
Replies: 56
Views: 6340

Re: CASH versus BONDS

I would advise people to go revisit the numerous threads that popped up in march/april about the dumping of munis and people selling them because of default risk and moved to cash or treasuries. That was the cheapest munis had ever been relative to treasuries. Anyone who bought munis in march made a...
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

So... just to narrow some comparisons. If you are referencing Vanguard VWIUX for your Muni fund - What Vanguard fund is your proxy for UST ? Ideally, you would be laddering your bonds based on the duration that is ideal for your situation. As bonds mature or you have new capital to deploy to bonds ...
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: VWIUX, Intermediate Muni...Payout...over the next year

Thanks for the reply PawPatrol! When I invest in fixed income, I want payout. I pick VWIUX because it pays well. What will VWIUX be distributing over the next one year period? It paid over 2% (annualized) on Feb. 1st.; it will likely pay 2% (annualized) on March 1. I speculate from looking at the d...
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: VWIUX, Intermediate Muni...Payout...over the next year

10yr AAA muni to 10 yr UST is now at a historic low of 0.56. Hence, there is no tax bracket that don’t make UST a better investment vs AAA muni of same duration in taxable accounts. This ratio is usually around 0.8. This also is a good time to migrate muni bond funds in taxable to treasuries in tax...
by Pawpatrol
Sun Feb 14, 2021 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

10yr AAA muni to 10 yr UST is now at a historic low of 0.56. Hence, there is no tax bracket that don’t make UST a better investment vs AAA muni of same duration in taxable accounts. This ratio is usually around 0.8. This also is a good time to migrate muni bond funds in taxable to treasuries in tax...
by Pawpatrol
Sun Feb 14, 2021 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

10yr AAA muni to 10 yr UST is now at a historic low of 0.56. Hence, there is no tax bracket that don’t make UST a better investment vs AAA muni of same duration in taxable accounts. This ratio is usually around 0.8. This also is a good time to migrate muni bond funds in taxable to treasuries in tax...
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

10yr AAA muni to 10 yr UST is now at a historic low of 0.56. Hence, there is no tax bracket that don’t make UST a better investment vs AAA muni of same duration in taxable accounts. This ratio is usually around 0.8. This also is a good time to migrate muni bond funds in taxable to treasuries in tax...
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

Crazy year as March 2020, the ratio was at historic high of over 3 (vs 0.56 now)
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

Im buying longterm treasury etf vglt/tlt. Duration 18.6years. Are you holding exclusively in tax advantaged accounts? I had the mutual fund version of VGLT last year, but I exchanged for VTSAX (on the cheap!), and bought I Bonds later. I plan to buy more I Bonds this year, but will have to look at ...
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

jebmke wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:46 pm My (nominal) bond duration is close to 2 years. Did a quick check on the short end and it doesn't seem to hold up on the short part of the curve.
Yeah, 2 year UST yields are still at all time lows in this steepening curve.
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

Im buying longterm treasury etf vglt/tlt. Duration 18.6years.
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Re: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

PSA: 10yr AAA muni to 10 yr UST is now at a historic low of 0.56. Hence, there is no tax bracket that don’t make UST a better investment vs AAA muni of same duration in taxable accounts. This ratio is usually around 0.8. This also is a good time to migrate muni bond funds in taxable to treasuries i...
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST
Replies: 78
Views: 6906

Muni treasury ratio at historic lows, time to sell munis and buy UST

10yr AAA muni to 10 yr UST is now at a historic low of 0.56. Hence, there is no tax bracket that don’t make UST a better investment vs AAA muni of same duration in taxable accounts. This ratio is usually around 0.8. This also is a good time to migrate muni bond funds in taxable to treasuries in tax-...
by Pawpatrol
Sat Feb 06, 2021 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Municipal bonds
Replies: 29
Views: 2516

Re: Municipal bonds

I switched my munis to treasuries recently. The muni/treasury ratio for same duration (10yr -30yr) is below its baseline and they are more or less a wash now even at the highest tax brackets. Hence, not seeing any benefits to take the extra risks with munis vs treasuries.
by Pawpatrol
Thu Feb 04, 2021 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 1091
Views: 90348

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

It's a bit concerning to see LTT not act as a hedge during this most recent correction. You have to wonder if it no longer serves the purpose many of us own it for. I believe its either flat or down for the month. Not sure what you are talking about here. January through March the stock market was ...
by Pawpatrol
Wed Feb 03, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 1091
Views: 90348

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

It's a bit concerning to see LTT not act as a hedge during this most recent correction. You have to wonder if it no longer serves the purpose many of us own it for. I believe its either flat or down for the month. Not sure what you are talking about here. January through March the stock market was ...
by Pawpatrol
Mon Feb 01, 2021 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Looks like the viov to avuv swap has already netted me 1.4%. This swap will go to 3% if gme cont to flush.
by Pawpatrol
Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14580
Views: 1118625

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The sentiment on BH and twitterland has gotten more bearish than usual. Lets see if that leads to more gains next week.
by Pawpatrol
Fri Jan 29, 2021 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Any ideas how to get out of my exposure to GME in my taxable account sp600 fund? I cant swap funds like i did in taxadv as i have large gains that are short term from a TLH in march 2020. Since gme is a large portion of the fund that will likely go to zeroish at some point in the next month or so, ...
by Pawpatrol
Fri Jan 29, 2021 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I am pretty frustrated. From looking at their daily holdings avuv on their website sold no shares of bed bath and beyond (up 44% yesterday and has been on a tear and now their top holding smh), or Macy’s. I thought the whole adv of this fund is that they can sell stock when they are not “value” any...
by Pawpatrol
Thu Jan 28, 2021 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Any ideas how to get out of my exposure to GME in my taxable account sp600 fund? I cant swap funds like i did in taxadv as i have large gains that are short term from a TLH in march 2020. Since gme is a large portion of the fund that will likely go to zeroish at some point in the next month or so, i...
by Pawpatrol
Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I think that AVUV actually DID own some GME at some point recently. When I checked the holdings on ETF.com yesterday morning, I think, GME showed up at around 0.45% or so of the fund. But the holdings on Avantis.com had already been updated and GME was gone. As of 11/30/2020 it looks like AVUV held...
by Pawpatrol
Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4568
Views: 229657

Re: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]

I'm noting that my small value ETF of choice, SLYV, currently has 2% of its value in GME. Can someone help me know if there's any benefit for investors here? Is there an internal rebalancing that takes place or what? I'm kind of confused wondering "is this hurting me or helping me?". As i...
by Pawpatrol
Thu Jan 28, 2021 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Looks like they will get another chance to reduce their position of bbby tomorrow with this robinhood changing their tune in ah. If they still havent sold any i am going to email them, and tweet them and try to get an answer.
by Pawpatrol
Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I am pretty frustrated. From looking at their daily holdings avuv on their website sold no shares of bed bath and beyond (up 44% yesterday and has been on a tear and now their top holding smh), or Macy’s. I thought the whole adv of this fund is that they can sell stock when they are not “value” anym...
by Pawpatrol
Wed Jan 27, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Interesting that today there is pretty wide divergence of VIOV (Vanguard S&P Small Cap 600 Value) and VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value). I hold both for various reasons. I recognize VIOV is smaller/more valuey, but typically they go in the same direction but VIOV is just magnified (i.e. if VBR is ...
by Pawpatrol
Wed Jan 27, 2021 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

The Gamestop craziness was enough to shoot IJS up 1.5% this morning (and then cause it to crash down as gamestop crashed) GME is now 0.86% of the fund (not counting of AH). Bbby (bed bath and beyond) is also up to 1% of viov/ijs. Gme started the year at 0.12%. Anything actionable if gme squeeze con...
by Pawpatrol
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22922
Views: 3007355

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

JoMoney wrote: Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:37 am Judging by the futures less than <-1% this is well within normal daily movements
At least wait and see where the market opens, this could easily be a *yawn*
Russell 2000 futures down 2.5%
by Pawpatrol
Wed Jan 27, 2021 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 22922
Views: 3007355

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

My guess is this selling is some combination of 1) people hedged their short gme/bbby/amc/bb/other mall retailer with long IWM (russell 2000) and this is unwinding. You will know this is true when the iwm rallies on the open. Notice how iwm and gme are trading inverse of each other in premarket and ...
by Pawpatrol
Tue Jan 26, 2021 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4422
Views: 340474

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

The Gamestop craziness was enough to shoot IJS up 1.5% this morning (and then cause it to crash down as gamestop crashed) GME is now 0.86% of the fund (not counting of AH). Bbby (bed bath and beyond) is also up to 1% of viov/ijs. Gme started the year at 0.12%. Anything actionable if gme squeeze con...
by Pawpatrol
Tue Jan 26, 2021 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4568
Views: 229657

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Anyone owning sp600 funds (ijr/ijs/viov/slyv etc) owned GME at ~0.28% of fund. Since that is old data its probably even hihher percentage now. So maybe this type of trading is contributing to the ~10% ytd of these funds Now GME is up to 0.86% of IJR/IJS/viov etc. bed bath and beyond (bbby) also 1% ...
by Pawpatrol
Sat Jan 23, 2021 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [GameStop GME trading mega-thread]
Replies: 4568
Views: 229657

Re: GameStop GME: anyone joining?

Anyone owning sp600 funds (ijr/ijs/viov/slyv etc) owned GME at ~0.28% of fund. Since that is old data its probably even hihher percentage now. So maybe this type of trading is contributing to the ~10% ytd of these funds
by Pawpatrol
Sat Jan 16, 2021 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18228

Re: On what are you most bullish?

I am most bullish on the opposite of whatever the consensus areas people are most bullish on. Whats the opposite of burritos?

- id say longterm us treasuries and the us dollar. Someone needs to give them love.
by Pawpatrol
Fri Dec 25, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking to truly understand “ability, willingness and need to take risk“ concept
Replies: 55
Views: 3895

Re: Looking to truly understand “ability, willingness and need to take risk“ concept

This thread is timely as I reflect on this year and feel grateful to have had a successful year when it looked so bleak in march. I hit 21x expenses, and will be at 25x assuming flat markets by the end of 2021 - all with a paid off house (hcol area) at age 40 I was at 75/25 through all of this and s...