Bogleheads.org

birdog

I don’t know what the next 40 years is going to look like but I can’t imagine that allocating a large percentage of bonds to ones portfolio is going to result in a good outcome for the foreseeable future. If your definition of "good outcome" is based on return performance, I wouldn't disa...

birdog

Neither. I'm planning for quarterly withdrawals. Since the majority of my retirement portfolio income will come from VTI (total stock market ETF) dividends that are distributed quarterly, I plan to do withdrawals from my taxable brokerage account to my HYSA at the beginning of each quarter. I'll the...

birdog

i mean i get it but its kind of a little silly to point out a 3 month dip in something and be like "SEE!!! GARBAGE!!" It's almost as silly to point out a one-year gain in something that has been taking big, concentrated, risky bets, and say "see, genius." Bingo. Zoom out even fu...

birdog

Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history. I hope this is true, as we will be able to purchase investments at great deals! :moneybag I would feel the same if I were still accumulating. However, I’m planning to retire later this year and a lost decade...

birdog

I'm 21. I have around $100,000 in SPY so 100% equities. I don't intend to keep anything in bonds for the next 40 years, particularly because I don't think they'll act as a good hedge for equities in a rising rate environment. Agree. As long as you don't panic sell during the inevitable drops. I wou...

birdog

My plumber said he installs Bradford White so that's what he installed for us. As long as your plumber carries a reputable line I wouldn't be concerned. Isn't it a bit weird that every plumber seems to endorse Bradford & White, a product that is practically impossible to see in store - and good...

birdog

I do the vast majority of our grilling on a Weber gas grill. I also had a Weber Smokey Mountain charcoal bullet smoker that I gave away after I upgraded to an XL Big Green Egg. The egg is amazing and very low maintenance compared to the Weber charcoal smoker but nowhere near as easy to use as a gas ...

birdog

My plumber said he installs Bradford White so that's what he installed for us. As long as your plumber carries a reputable line I wouldn't be concerned.

birdog

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...

birdog

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...

birdog

How are you backtesting the 200MA strat on PV? Oh, I just meant this: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?timingModel=5 Took 2 mins to do a backtest for fun: 10 month MA, with UPRO/TMF, tried with SPY and UPRO as signal. Voilà! You have a few million in returns in a decade....

birdog

It's just about as risky as holding equities during 2008. S&P's 200MA gets you out of the market at the beginning of a crash. Just about as risky? UPRO is equities. It’s just equities with way more risk (among other things) than non-leveraged equities. Everyone knows what UPRO is. And if you B&...

birdog

Check this thread: Running 100% UPRO 0% TMF https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=297591 That doesn’t sound risky. :shock: It's just about as risky as holding equities during 2008. S&P's 200MA gets you out of the market at the beginning of a crash. Just about as risky? UPRO ...

birdog

Although I am often persuaded that Dalio is right about the future, and at times I have made changes to my portfolio based on his views, here is a reason to not jump to conclusions too quickly. Please read this piece.... https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/ray-dalio-the-power-of-setting-defaul...

birdog

If you want to pick individual stocks with a very small portion of your portfolio then it shouldn’t hurt your long term results too much. Over the long term, the data overwhelmingly shows that you’ll underperform the market but the smaller the allocation you limit your fun money to, the less you’ll ...

birdog

Florida gets my vote over Nevada.

I second the suggestion of a three week (or so) rental in each possible location to help you decide. That’s what we plan to do. So far, all of the cities on our short list are in FL.

birdog

Actually I’m not sure TLH is as much a benefit as it seems. You get a tax deduction now which is a benefit ... but it lowers your tax basis. So then the question is do you think capital gains will go up or down? [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] So I’m not sure the $3000 per year benefit now i...

birdog

One thing that bugs me is that this strategy is entirely predicated on the assumption that interest rates will decline over the long term (20-40+ years). We know from backtesting 55/45 UPRO/TMF works tremendously well since the 1980s because interest rates have kept dropping, and you know stonks al...

birdog

I don’t think any of us would like to lose one. What’s the alternative, under the mattress? U.S. stock market at or near all time highs, like it usually is. I just carry on. International /ducks Sure, there are many alternatives in addition to US stocks but you’ll still own US stocks was my point.

birdog

One thing that bugs me is that this strategy is entirely predicated on the assumption that interest rates will decline over the long term (20-40+ years). We know from backtesting 55/45 UPRO/TMF works tremendously well since the 1980s because interest rates have kept dropping, and you know stonks al...

birdog

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...

birdog

We love ourselves a lost decade, don't we boys? Ummmmm, no. I don’t have many decades left. I can’t afford to lose one. I don’t think any of us would like to lose one. What’s the alternative, under the mattress? U.S. stock market at or near all time highs, like it usually is. I just carry on.

birdog

Congratulations LAUREN on your achievement. This is by far the best retirement calculator I've used and the only one I bookmarked. Thank-you. If you decide to monetize this program in some way, I'm sure many in your audience would be receptive despite our "making pennies scream" mindset. ...

birdog

BoogyBogle wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:20 pm We love ourselves a lost decade, don't we boys?

Ummmmm, no.

birdog

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...

birdog

U.S. equities

birdog

Dalios musings are notoriously difficult to act upon as an individual investor. Best I can tell he is saying - don't accumulate us cash - don't accumulate us bonds - I'm not clear what he is saying on us stocks. - I think he says he likes international stocks OK and emerging market stocks better - ...

birdog

"Dividend Growth Income Investing" isn't an investment strategy, it's a cognitive bias. Dividend growth funds tend to be disproportionately weighted with "quality" companies. Many who invest in them don't do so for the small growing dividend, but they want to tilt in favor of la...

birdog

Wow! This thing tells me I'm going to be rich! Rich, I tell you!!! Muuuuu uuuuuu haaaaa!!!! This provided the most optimistic projections I've seen. Really? When I casually ran w/ default inputs, the 4% SWR scenario running 75/25 would fail multiple years during the 60s. For me, Personal Capital pr...

birdog

"Dividend Growth Income Investing" isn't an investment strategy, it's a cognitive bias. Dividend growth funds tend to be disproportionately weighted with "quality" companies. Many who invest in them don't do so for the small growing dividend, but they want to tilt in favor of la...

birdog

Wow! This thing tells me I'm going to be rich! Rich, I tell you!!! Muuuuu uuuuuu haaaaa!!!!

This provided the most optimistic projections I've seen.

birdog

I’m not saying I would retire as soon as I hit 4%. I actually hit that years ago and was willing to keep working because I had the means and capacity to continue to do so. My question was to Scooter57 who asked if someone is still FI after a market drop. And my assertion is that the 4% rule actuall...

birdog

bugleheadd wrote: ↑Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:25 am Awaiting Forrester analysis of where the market is heading.

Same here.

birdog

There it is!

birdog

Kevin K wrote: ↑Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:59 pm Good short piece today in Bloomberg that among other things points out that when Dalio writes it's not a PSA but a sales pitch addressed to a specific ultra-wealthy audience.

Of course and silly me for not realizing this. Makes perfect sense when you view it through this lens.

birdog

I’m not saying I would retire as soon as I hit 4%. I actually hit that years ago and was willing to keep working because I had the means and capacity to continue to do so. My question was to Scooter57 who asked if someone is still FI after a market drop. And my assertion is that the 4% rule actuall...

birdog

I think I would find myself very frustrated if I tried to set up my portfolio based on what I thought Ray Dalio liked, both in performance and in trying to ascertain what his specific and actionable recommendations are. Following Jack Bogle's recommendations, however, has left me with a clear and s...

birdog

I think I would find myself very frustrated if I tried to set up my portfolio based on what I thought Ray Dalio liked, both in performance and in trying to ascertain what his specific and actionable recommendations are. Following Jack Bogle's recommendations, however, has left me with a clear and si...

birdog

Keep investing simple. Total Stock Market does just that. It sure does! I bought some Total Stock Market today in my taxable and HSA. :sharebeer Me too! My truck is backing up. The simplicity of Jack Bogle’s and Warren Buffett’s portfolio works. Tony I’ll side with Bogle and Buffett as well.

birdog

Hopefully most newcomers on this forum can look past the strategies that promote putting all their equities in US total market funds. Hopefully they take the time to learn the value of diversification, which can easily be achieved through addition of international stocks or small cap stocks (or bot...

birdog

Here's where an IPS would really help. Draw up an IPS and follow it. Even if your IPS defines a path that is a bit sub-optimal, you will still likely do better than not having an IPS with a defined plan and just trying to behave optimally on your own along the way. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/In...

birdog

India will propose a law banning cryptocurrencies, fining anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets, a senior government official told Reuters in a potential blow to millions of investors piling into the red-hot asset class. The measure is in line with a January government a...

birdog

Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:41 am I actually think futures are a contra indicator.

It's like the market is just trying to make the futures market look stupid.

birdog

S&P closing in on 4K and DJI closing in on 33k! It has certainly been rewarding to have held U.S. broad based equities over the past year. Thank you Fed. .....I think.

birdog

I'll try to maintain this 10 years of spending with rebalancing, gently increasing it every year --I've calculated how much I need to "keep" in equities to continually replenish the 10 years of spending over rolling 10 year periods and I won't go below that (unless I doubt I have 10 years...

birdog

I'm curious whether those of you who have reached FI still have most of your money invested in stocks and bonds. Would you still be FI if the market dropped 40% and did what it did in the decade following 2000? Or the period from 1960-1982? Yes, most of my money is in stocks and bonds. Is there ano...

birdog

I'm curious whether those of you who have reached FI still have most of your money invested in stocks and bonds. Would you still be FI if the market dropped 40% and did what it did in the decade following 2000? Or the period from 1960-1982? Yes, most of my money is in stocks and bonds. Is there ano...

birdog

I'm curious whether those of you who have reached FI still have most of your money invested in stocks and bonds. Would you still be FI if the market dropped 40% and did what it did in the decade following 2000? Or the period from 1960-1982? Yes, most of my money is in stocks and bonds. Is there ano...

birdog

How do you determine your X times expenses? You do subtract Social Security, correct? I am planning for a 38 yr retirement. I will be funding my retirement 100% from my portfolio for the first 5 yrs. After that, SS kicks in and my withdrawal rate goes way down. I totaled up the amount that I would ...

birdog

The Simple Path to Wealth - JL Collins

The Smartest Investment Book You’ll Ever Read - Daniel Solin

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