Search found 1375 matches

by birdog
Mon May 17, 2021 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quarterly Tax Filing
Replies: 24
Views: 1756

Re: Quarterly Tax Filing

It took me too many years to figure out that if I used my 2.5% cash back visa to pay estimated quarterlies that after cc fees I still net a nice profit.
by birdog
Thu May 13, 2021 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: $365 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market after Musk tweet
Replies: 108
Views: 8640

Re: $365 billion wiped off cryptocurrency market after Musk tweet

Stinky wrote: Thu May 13, 2021 5:42 am That's what happens when an asset whose market value is based on the "greater fool" theory has one less "fool" supporting it. :oops:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory
Yep.
by birdog
Tue May 11, 2021 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Simplicity Manifesto" by Scott Burns
Replies: 21
Views: 3058

Re: "The Simplicity Manifesto" by Scott Burns

Good article. I cringe at the massive sums of money wasted on money managers because most people will never invest the time to learn the truth about personal finance. Articles like this are enlightening to those who are unaware of the passive vs active comparison.
by birdog
Tue May 04, 2021 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire by end of year
Replies: 27
Views: 3734

Re: Can I retire by end of year

Congratulations on your upcoming retirement! My only recommendation would be to simplify (especially the taxable account) a bit.
by birdog
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?
Replies: 48
Views: 4798

Re: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?

I don’t know what the next 40 years is going to look like but I can’t imagine that allocating a large percentage of bonds to ones portfolio is going to result in a good outcome for the foreseeable future. If your definition of "good outcome" is based on return performance, I wouldn't disa...
by birdog
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement
Replies: 39
Views: 4099

Re: Monthly or Yearly Withdrawals in Retirement

Neither. I'm planning for quarterly withdrawals. Since the majority of my retirement portfolio income will come from VTI (total stock market ETF) dividends that are distributed quarterly, I plan to do withdrawals from my taxable brokerage account to my HYSA at the beginning of each quarter. I'll the...
by birdog
Wed Mar 31, 2021 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 962
Views: 82154

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

i mean i get it but its kind of a little silly to point out a 3 month dip in something and be like "SEE!!! GARBAGE!!" It's almost as silly to point out a one-year gain in something that has been taking big, concentrated, risky bets, and say "see, genius." Bingo. Zoom out even fu...
by birdog
Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18981

Re: On what are you most bullish?

Nothing - the next 10 years are probably going to be the worst period to invest in history. I hope this is true, as we will be able to purchase investments at great deals! :moneybag I would feel the same if I were still accumulating. However, I’m planning to retire later this year and a lost decade...
by birdog
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your age and asset allocation ?
Replies: 595
Views: 56691

Re: What is your age and asset allocation ?

I'm 21. I have around $100,000 in SPY so 100% equities. I don't intend to keep anything in bonds for the next 40 years, particularly because I don't think they'll act as a good hedge for equities in a rising rate environment. Agree. As long as you don't panic sell during the inevitable drops. I wou...
by birdog
Sat Mar 20, 2021 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Natural gas, tank water heater. Which brand?
Replies: 26
Views: 1954

Re: Natural gas, tank water heater. Which brand?

My plumber said he installs Bradford White so that's what he installed for us. As long as your plumber carries a reputable line I wouldn't be concerned. Isn't it a bit weird that every plumber seems to endorse Bradford & White, a product that is practically impossible to see in store - and good...
by birdog
Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New grill: gas vs. pellet
Replies: 50
Views: 4111

Re: New grill: gas vs. pellet

I do the vast majority of our grilling on a Weber gas grill. I also had a Weber Smokey Mountain charcoal bullet smoker that I gave away after I upgraded to an XL Big Green Egg. The egg is amazing and very low maintenance compared to the Weber charcoal smoker but nowhere near as easy to use as a gas ...
by birdog
Sat Mar 20, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Natural gas, tank water heater. Which brand?
Replies: 26
Views: 1954

Re: Natural gas, tank water heater. Which brand?

My plumber said he installs Bradford White so that's what he installed for us. As long as your plumber carries a reputable line I wouldn't be concerned.
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.
Replies: 175
Views: 20234

Re: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.
Replies: 175
Views: 20234

Re: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8965
Views: 884117

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

How are you backtesting the 200MA strat on PV? Oh, I just meant this: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/test-market-timing-model?timingModel=5 Took 2 mins to do a backtest for fun: 10 month MA, with UPRO/TMF, tried with SPY and UPRO as signal. Voilà! You have a few million in returns in a decade....
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8965
Views: 884117

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

It's just about as risky as holding equities during 2008. S&P's 200MA gets you out of the market at the beginning of a crash. Just about as risky? UPRO is equities. It’s just equities with way more risk (among other things) than non-leveraged equities. Everyone knows what UPRO is. And if you B&...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8965
Views: 884117

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Check this thread: Running 100% UPRO 0% TMF https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=297591 That doesn’t sound risky. :shock: It's just about as risky as holding equities during 2008. S&P's 200MA gets you out of the market at the beginning of a crash. Just about as risky? UPRO ...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10124

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Although I am often persuaded that Dalio is right about the future, and at times I have made changes to my portfolio based on his views, here is a reason to not jump to conclusions too quickly. Please read this piece.... https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/ray-dalio-the-power-of-setting-defaul...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 6:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Newsletters for buying individual stocks (e.g. Motley Fool)
Replies: 75
Views: 5587

Re: Newsletters for buying individual stocks (e.g. Motley Fool)

If you want to pick individual stocks with a very small portion of your portfolio then it shouldn’t hurt your long term results too much. Over the long term, the data overwhelmingly shows that you’ll underperform the market but the smaller the allocation you limit your fun money to, the less you’ll ...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Las Vegas or Tampa for retirement relocation?
Replies: 69
Views: 6132

Re: Las Vegas or Tampa for retirement relocation?

Florida gets my vote over Nevada.

I second the suggestion of a three week (or so) rental in each possible location to help you decide. That’s what we plan to do. So far, all of the cities on our short list are in FL.
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 4:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to pay ZERO taxes in retirement with 6-figure expenses
Replies: 224
Views: 155541

Re: How to pay ZERO taxes in retirement with 6-figure expenses

Actually I’m not sure TLH is as much a benefit as it seems. You get a tax deduction now which is a benefit ... but it lowers your tax basis. So then the question is do you think capital gains will go up or down? [OT comment removed by admin LadyGeek] So I’m not sure the $3000 per year benefit now i...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8965
Views: 884117

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

One thing that bugs me is that this strategy is entirely predicated on the assumption that interest rates will decline over the long term (20-40+ years). We know from backtesting 55/45 UPRO/TMF works tremendously well since the 1980s because interest rates have kept dropping, and you know stonks al...
by birdog
Fri Mar 19, 2021 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23287
Views: 3045502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I don’t think any of us would like to lose one. What’s the alternative, under the mattress? U.S. stock market at or near all time highs, like it usually is. I just carry on. International /ducks Sure, there are many alternatives in addition to US stocks but you’ll still own US stocks was my point.
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8965
Views: 884117

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

One thing that bugs me is that this strategy is entirely predicated on the assumption that interest rates will decline over the long term (20-40+ years). We know from backtesting 55/45 UPRO/TMF works tremendously well since the 1980s because interest rates have kept dropping, and you know stonks al...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.
Replies: 175
Views: 20234

Re: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23287
Views: 3045502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

We love ourselves a lost decade, don't we boys? Ummmmm, no. I don’t have many decades left. I can’t afford to lose one. I don’t think any of us would like to lose one. What’s the alternative, under the mattress? U.S. stock market at or near all time highs, like it usually is. I just carry on.
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 193
Views: 17649

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

Congratulations LAUREN on your achievement. This is by far the best retirement calculator I've used and the only one I bookmarked. Thank-you. If you decide to monetize this program in some way, I'm sure many in your audience would be receptive despite our "making pennies scream" mindset. ...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23287
Views: 3045502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

BoogyBogle wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 1:20 pm We love ourselves a lost decade, don't we boys?
Ummmmm, no.
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.
Replies: 175
Views: 20234

Re: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.

It is much easier to estimate with certainty if you do it without relying on the stock market. Sure, but not everyone in the world can start a business. The stock market has proven to be the single best mechanism for average people to reliably grow their investments over time. The barrier to entry ...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: On what are you most bullish?
Replies: 266
Views: 18981

Re: On what are you most bullish?

U.S. equities
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10124

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Dalios musings are notoriously difficult to act upon as an individual investor. Best I can tell he is saying - don't accumulate us cash - don't accumulate us bonds - I'm not clear what he is saying on us stocks. - I think he says he likes international stocks OK and emerging market stocks better - ...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confessions Of A Recovering Income Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 5591

Re: Confessions Of A Recovering Income Investor

"Dividend Growth Income Investing" isn't an investment strategy, it's a cognitive bias. Dividend growth funds tend to be disproportionately weighted with "quality" companies. Many who invest in them don't do so for the small growing dividend, but they want to tilt in favor of la...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 193
Views: 17649

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

Wow! This thing tells me I'm going to be rich! Rich, I tell you!!! Muuuuu uuuuuu haaaaa!!!! This provided the most optimistic projections I've seen. Really? When I casually ran w/ default inputs, the 4% SWR scenario running 75/25 would fail multiple years during the 60s. For me, Personal Capital pr...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confessions Of A Recovering Income Investor
Replies: 37
Views: 5591

Re: Confessions Of A Recovering Income Investor

"Dividend Growth Income Investing" isn't an investment strategy, it's a cognitive bias. Dividend growth funds tend to be disproportionately weighted with "quality" companies. Many who invest in them don't do so for the small growing dividend, but they want to tilt in favor of la...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 193
Views: 17649

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

Wow! This thing tells me I'm going to be rich! Rich, I tell you!!! Muuuuu uuuuuu haaaaa!!!!

This provided the most optimistic projections I've seen.
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.
Replies: 175
Views: 20234

Re: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.

I’m not saying I would retire as soon as I hit 4%. I actually hit that years ago and was willing to keep working because I had the means and capacity to continue to do so. My question was to Scooter57 who asked if someone is still FI after a market drop. And my assertion is that the 4% rule actuall...
by birdog
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23287
Views: 3045502

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

bugleheadd wrote: Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:25 am Awaiting Forrester analysis of where the market is heading.
Same here.
by birdog
Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15259
Views: 1180423

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There it is!
by birdog
Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10124

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

Kevin K wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 1:59 pm Good short piece today in Bloomberg that among other things points out that when Dalio writes it's not a PSA but a sales pitch addressed to a specific ultra-wealthy audience.
Of course and silly me for not realizing this. Makes perfect sense when you view it through this lens.
by birdog
Wed Mar 17, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.
Replies: 175
Views: 20234

Re: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.

I’m not saying I would retire as soon as I hit 4%. I actually hit that years ago and was willing to keep working because I had the means and capacity to continue to do so. My question was to Scooter57 who asked if someone is still FI after a market drop. And my assertion is that the 4% rule actuall...
by birdog
Wed Mar 17, 2021 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10124

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

I think I would find myself very frustrated if I tried to set up my portfolio based on what I thought Ray Dalio liked, both in performance and in trying to ascertain what his specific and actionable recommendations are. Following Jack Bogle's recommendations, however, has left me with a clear and s...
by birdog
Wed Mar 17, 2021 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?
Replies: 85
Views: 10124

Re: Ray Dalio Bond Advice - What options do we have?

I think I would find myself very frustrated if I tried to set up my portfolio based on what I thought Ray Dalio liked, both in performance and in trying to ascertain what his specific and actionable recommendations are. Following Jack Bogle's recommendations, however, has left me with a clear and si...
by birdog
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1943
Views: 186117

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Keep investing simple. Total Stock Market does just that. It sure does! I bought some Total Stock Market today in my taxable and HSA. :sharebeer Me too! My truck is backing up. The simplicity of Jack Bogle’s and Warren Buffett’s portfolio works. Tony I’ll side with Bogle and Buffett as well.
by birdog
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1943
Views: 186117

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Hopefully most newcomers on this forum can look past the strategies that promote putting all their equities in US total market funds. Hopefully they take the time to learn the value of diversification, which can easily be achieved through addition of international stocks or small cap stocks (or bot...
by birdog
Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Invest in market or hold cash?
Replies: 22
Views: 2854

Re: Invest in market or hold cash?

Here's where an IPS would really help. Draw up an IPS and follow it. Even if your IPS defines a path that is a bit sub-optimal, you will still likely do better than not having an IPS with a defined plan and just trying to behave optimally on your own along the way. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/In...
by birdog
Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall
Replies: 569
Views: 45066

Re: Cryptocurrency in Free Fall

India will propose a law banning cryptocurrencies, fining anyone trading in the country or even holding such digital assets, a senior government official told Reuters in a potential blow to millions of investors piling into the red-hot asset class. The measure is in line with a January government a...
by birdog
Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15259
Views: 1180423

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Mar 15, 2021 7:41 am I actually think futures are a contra indicator.
It's like the market is just trying to make the futures market look stupid.
by birdog
Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15259
Views: 1180423

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

S&P closing in on 4K and DJI closing in on 33k! It has certainly been rewarding to have held U.S. broad based equities over the past year. Thank you Fed. .....I think.
by birdog
Mon Mar 15, 2021 5:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating An Anti Fragile Portfolio
Replies: 101
Views: 8439

Re: Creating An Anti Fragile Portfolio

I'll try to maintain this 10 years of spending with rebalancing, gently increasing it every year --I've calculated how much I need to "keep" in equities to continually replenish the 10 years of spending over rolling 10 year periods and I won't go below that (unless I doubt I have 10 years...
by birdog
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.
Replies: 175
Views: 20234

Re: Hitting your numbers. How to estimate when you have enough.

I'm curious whether those of you who have reached FI still have most of your money invested in stocks and bonds. Would you still be FI if the market dropped 40% and did what it did in the decade following 2000? Or the period from 1960-1982? Yes, most of my money is in stocks and bonds. Is there ano...