Search found 25149 matches

by willthrill81
Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)
Replies: 180
Views: 34020

Re: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)

If you think that your longevity isn't directly correlated to your mom/dad, then I've got some ocean front property in Arizona to sell you. You are staggeringly off base. Link to the study? Or is this just your opinion? I certainly don't have the expertise or inclination to engage in that debate. H...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page
Replies: 64
Views: 4464

Re: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page

If we don't use the past as a guide to the future, then what do we use? Untested theory? Is that likely to be a better guide? We use the past, but trying to understand why certain things happened, so that today we can verify if the same conditions still hold true. The past tells us bonds and stocks...
by willthrill81
Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page
Replies: 64
Views: 4464

Re: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page

If we don't use the past as a guide to the future, then what do we use? Untested theory? Is that likely to be a better guide? We use the past, but trying to understand why certain things happened, so that today we can verify if the same conditions still hold true. The past tells us bonds and stocks...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX until age 50?
Replies: 101
Views: 9378

Re: 100% VTSAX until age 50?

OP, your strategy is mathematically sound. Assuming you have the willingness and ability to take on the risks of a 100% stock allocation, it's likely to be superior to your existing 85/15 AA. A strong argument can be made for a 100% stock allocation leading up to around 10 years before one's anticip...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page
Replies: 64
Views: 4464

Re: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page

nisiprius wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:06 pm The market continued and continues to believe that stocks are riskier than Treasury bonds...
How is that risk defined?
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?
Replies: 48
Views: 5387

Re: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?

I do believe in reversion to the mean. Given that CAPE has been above its historic mean almost constantly since 1992, decades are apparently not enough to cause reversion to the mean. I thought other measures show it though? But 1992 not that far historically speaking even on CAPE. All the reason r...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page
Replies: 64
Views: 4464

Re: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page

Viewing 'risk' solely in terms of the dispersion of historical outcomes has never made sense to me, nor do I think that most investors view risk that way. A purely hypothetical investment A that has historically had 30 year returns ranging from 6-12% does not seem riskier than investment B that has...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page
Replies: 64
Views: 4464

Re: Stocks risky in the long term: can't understand this video from Bogleheads wiki page

Viewing 'risk' solely in terms of the dispersion of historical outcomes has never made sense to me, nor do I think that most investors view risk that way. A purely hypothetical investment A that has historically had 30 year returns ranging from 6-12% does not seem riskier than investment B that has ...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?
Replies: 48
Views: 5387

Re: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?

I do believe in reversion to the mean. Given that CAPE has been above its historic mean almost constantly since 1992, decades are apparently not enough to cause reversion to the mean. I thought other measures show it though? But 1992 not that far historically speaking even on CAPE. All the reason r...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A lost decade for stocks and bonds on the horizon?
Replies: 693
Views: 50970

Re: A lost decade for stocks and bonds on the horizon?

While You Are Getting "Lost" For the next 10 years Keep Investing Be Ready For The Next 10 :mrgreen: ... And yet, if we listen to the advice of OP, what's the point of investing for the next 10 or the 10 after? The only advice from the OP was "you might need to reduce your return exp...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gift tax
Replies: 53
Views: 3275

Re: Gift tax

I don't know why, but gift taxes seem to be one of the most misunderstood topics in the tax code. The quote below neatly sums up the issue. You do NOT have to pay taxes on gifts larger than $15k per year per recipient; If you gift $120,000 to your daughter in 2019, $105,000 of the gift is taxable b...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?
Replies: 48
Views: 5387

Re: Why are U.S. Stock Valuations so High Today?

DB2 wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 5:39 pm I do believe in reversion to the mean.
Given that CAPE has been above its historic mean almost constantly since 1992, decades are apparently not enough to cause reversion to the mean.
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Long Term Care Insurance
Replies: 466
Views: 27989

Re: Long Term Care Insurance

However, I suspect that it may be a hybrid policy, and my potentially flawed understanding is that most hybrid policies do not increase benefits for inflation. So the $320k/$670k benefit might be effectively half those amounts in 20-25 years. Your view is more sanguine than mine. I have other reaso...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

ballons wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:48 pm Your entire argument is a no true Scotsman which you admit you even fail this litmus test.
There's a difference between admitting that there is an inconsistency and acting like one doesn't exist.
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gift tax
Replies: 53
Views: 3275

Re: Gift tax

I don't know why, but gift taxes seem to be one of the most misunderstood topics in the tax code. The quote below neatly sums up the issue. You do NOT have to pay taxes on gifts larger than $15k per year per recipient; the amount over $15k merely counts against your $11.4 million (as of 2019; the a...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Whole Home Generator Advice
Replies: 119
Views: 9531

Re: Whole Home Generator Advice

The gas appliances don't consume much power at all. Most gas furnaces consume under 1,000 watts while running. The only power hogs you've listed are the central AC units, and those likely consume around 8,000 watts each while running. But do you need to run more than one at a time? If not, a 10-15 k...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off mortgage or invest ?
Replies: 23
Views: 2506

Re: Pay off mortgage or invest ?

I would first ask whether I have an asset allocation that includes fixed income. Assuming that my asset allocation was not 100/0, I would then ask whether I have sufficient liquidity to handle things like a medical emergency, extended job loss, etc. Assuming I had sufficient liquidity, I would then...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:01 am Finding inconsistencies serves what purpose? How exactly does that take anything away from the the Bogle principles?
It doesn't take anything away from the BH principles. But inconsistencies should be called out for what they are.
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Drawing over 400K on HELOC to invest in market?
Replies: 101
Views: 9382

Re: Drawing over 400K on HELOC to invest in market?

Money is fungible. There is no difference between holding a home mortgage while investing and owning a home outright while borrowing to invest. A wise person would pick a strategy that costs the least and has the best risk-adjusted return for their risk tolerance. Look to taxes and loan rates to fo...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

It's a lot easier with the real estate. In the stock market you have thousands of analysts fighting for the same stocks. When purchasing real estate, you are only competing against a handful of buyers (and sometimes none!). So not easy to make money there, but a lot easier. I guess the fancy way to...
by willthrill81
Sat Jun 05, 2021 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

2. Placing a large proportion of one's wealth in a single stock is a bad idea for late stage accumulators, but placing a large proportion of one's net worth in one's business is perfectly acceptable. Owning a business that you have (nearly) complete control over is not the same as stock market inve...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

What an array of responses. To clarify, I'm NOT taking an 'anti-entrepreneur' stance. Rather, I think that there is a time and situation for new businesses, but a late stage accumulator investing half their net worth in a new venture seems to clearly violate the principles of never taking on too muc...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

I know that this is ironic coming from me being a trend follower myself (and no, I don't discuss my strategy any longer on the open forum, nor have I ever recommended my strategy to others), but I have noticed over the years a number of recommendations made by a substantial number of posters that s...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

I don't see the inconsistency with 2. Bogle never said not to do that. It is also not in guiding principals. A business you own yourself is not an equity, nor is it retirement savings and in fact business questions are forbidden so, I don't agree with you about #2. Putting all your eggs in one bask...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Re: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

I haven't come across 2). For 3), I think it's actually fine if not reasonable - we aren't timing stocks, we're timing bonds. It doesn't take anyone to understand that 10Y hitting 0.5% vs 15% makes a huge difference. 1. If the stock market is efficient (i.e., all relevant information is priced into...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?
Replies: 68
Views: 5282

Inconsistencies with the Boglehead principles?

I know that this is ironic coming from me being a trend follower myself (and no, I don't discuss my strategy any longer on the open forum, nor have I ever recommended my strategy to others), but I have noticed over the years a number of recommendations made by a substantial number of posters that se...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation home frenzy?
Replies: 75
Views: 13585

Re: Vacation home frenzy?

I have seen this movie many times in my life, and it ALWAYS has the same ending. The more I hear that this time is different the more that I’m prepared to scavenge the eventual results. I didn't realize that anyone had seen a housing shortage, substantially increased construction costs, increased c...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation home frenzy?
Replies: 75
Views: 13585

Re: Vacation home frenzy?

I'm a millenial, have a STEM graduate degree, and a good job. A down payment for a decent house is well over a years gross pay. I'm adequately saving for retirement, but at this rate I have no hope of buying a house before I'm 40. Meanwhile previous generations seem to be focused on 2nd or 3rd home...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: We won the game…then we rolled the dice
Replies: 201
Views: 24912

Re: We won the game…then we rolled the dice

Krui24 wrote: Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:31 pm Just posted an update in the main post. Short answer: going better but not nearly out of the woods yet...
Thanks for the update. I pray that all goes well with your child's health.
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Buy once, cry once"
Replies: 137
Views: 14984

Re: "Buy once, cry once"

what are your thoughts on this mantra? i think it makes sense - for certain items. right now my wife and i are furniture shopping. i could spend $1500 on something that might last 8 years or $3500 on an heirloom piece that might last 25+. where do your habits usually lead to? We bought very high qu...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdrawal strategy
Replies: 12
Views: 1918

Re: Withdrawal strategy

You haven't provided nearly enough detail to get good advice. Might want to talk to fee only estate planner, CPA, or CFP in this situation. :thumbsup If the OP has that level of assets, speaking to a great CPA seems warranted. Willthrill and Aristotelian - practically speaking, do you think that th...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation home frenzy?
Replies: 75
Views: 13585

Re: Vacation home frenzy?

We are in the market for a vacation home in the Midwest and can confirm that the same features of a bubble that are present across the standard housing market are showing up for second houses; even in out-of-the-way locations. Multiple offers, escalation clauses and waived appraisals/inspections ar...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: And Yet Another Job Choice Thread
Replies: 30
Views: 2267

Re: And Yet Another Job Choice Thread

I value both work life balance, family, AND career growth (which really feeds back into "taking care of the family" in the end), haha. That's the real conundrum. At most, you can probably only have two of those three. Exceptionally few people truly 'have it all'. Every decision made in fa...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)
Replies: 180
Views: 34020

Re: My dad is taking Social Security at 62, why would anyone not? (If they already quit working)

One thing I found in my models is that taking SS early can greatly reduce the impact of SORR. I disagree. If one follows the proper (in my opinion) way of financing a delay in Social Security, there is no impact on Sequence of Returns Risk. So I guess I'd better define what I mean by the "prop...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vacation home frenzy?
Replies: 75
Views: 13585

Re: Vacation home frenzy?

We are in the market for a vacation home in the Midwest and can confirm that the same features of a bubble that are present across the standard housing market are showing up for second houses; even in out-of-the-way locations. Multiple offers, escalation clauses and waived appraisals/inspections ar...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 457 withdrawals in PA taxable - pre 59.5?
Replies: 9
Views: 616

Re: 457 withdrawals in PA taxable - pre 59.5?

Why would any 457 withdrawals not be taxable, regardless of age? Are you actually interested in the tax or the penalty? Indeed. Unless there is some very odd provision in the PA state income tax code to the contrary, all 457 withdrawals would be considered taxable income at any age. There simply is...
by willthrill81
Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold [buying/storing]
Replies: 208
Views: 15063

Re: Gold [buying/storing]

Having already shown the actual facts multiple times now, what are uncommitted readers supposed to take away from the fact you simply keep repeating claims we know to be false as applied to the only sort of gold available for purchase today? Simply repeatedly declaring 'false' is not evidence. sure...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I Add Gold ETF to My Portfolio?
Replies: 36
Views: 2987

Re: Should I Add Gold ETF to My Portfolio?

This stuff happens regularly throughout economic history, and it pays to be prepared. This is especially true if you're creating multi-generational portfolios for your heirs (which I am doing). It's just unfortunate that it doesn't happen so frequently that it shows up on armchair economist's myopi...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Withdrawal strategy
Replies: 12
Views: 1918

Re: Withdrawal strategy

aristotelian wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 11:37 am You haven't provided nearly enough detail to get good advice. Might want to talk to fee only estate planner, CPA, or CFP in this situation.
:thumbsup

If the OP has that level of assets, speaking to a great CPA seems warranted.
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic
Replies: 115
Views: 16026

Re: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic

Expecting macro prices to change just because there has been a recent runup in prices is not supported well by the data. Many are giving too much weight to a specific historic instance (i.e., the GFC) where prices were driven by easy debt. Today's prices are driven by lack of supply, increased dema...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic
Replies: 115
Views: 16026

Re: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic

So....exploiting inefficiencies is a profession, but timing re locally is not possible? Got it. Correct. Inefficiencies are very different from predicting future prices. For instance, an informed potential buyer can recognize that the property that just came up for sale for $200k is actually worth ...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's article on Single family house rentals
Replies: 88
Views: 8932

Re: Larry Swedroe's article on Single family house rentals

Back in the late 1980s, I had co-workers who purchased houses as a side income. The rule of thumb back then you needed to get 1% of the price of a house as monthly rent to make it work out financially. Then the interest rates were in the 9 - 10% range. So getting a townhouse for 60K was better than...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic
Replies: 115
Views: 16026

Re: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic

I never said that I expect prices to fall just because they've gone up. I expect prices to fall because most of the people buying homes today are misinformed rubes, and homes in my area have far surpassed any reasonable price:rent metric. Prices may fall in your area. But keep in mind that prices v...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bottom in real estate
Replies: 139
Views: 16891

Re: I'm calling a bottom in real estate

So what happens when a landlord of a property that rents for $1,000 checks Zillow one day and realizes their property is suddenly worth $250k? Some quick napkin math indicates they are profiting maybe $5k a year after expenses and tying up a quarter million to do so. They could earn more than that ...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bottom in real estate
Replies: 139
Views: 16891

Re: I'm calling a bottom in real estate

Rents are more driven by supply, demand, and the income of the population. Landlords do not get to double their rents every 3 years because interest rates are low or markets are euphoric. If they try to do so, they'll pay the price in vacancies. So what happens when a landlord of a property that re...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I Add Gold ETF to My Portfolio?
Replies: 36
Views: 2987

Re: Should I Add Gold ETF to My Portfolio?

What about a gold ETF serving as a backstop to Treasuries in a "flight to safety" situation, especially if the dollar continues to be devalued due to all of this money printing, etc.? With Treasuries having such low yields, would this make gold more attractive to potential investors going...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic
Replies: 115
Views: 16026

Re: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic

So....exploiting inefficiencies is a profession, but timing re locally is not possible? Got it. Correct. Inefficiencies are very different from predicting future prices. For instance, an informed potential buyer can recognize that the property that just came up for sale for $200k is actually worth ...
by willthrill81
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic
Replies: 115
Views: 16026

Re: "Why You Should Wait Out the Wild Housing Market" - Atlantic

So....exploiting inefficiencies is a profession, but timing re locally is not possible? Got it. Correct. Inefficiencies are very different from predicting future prices. For instance, an informed potential buyer can recognize that the property that just came up for sale for $200k is actually worth ...
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bottom in real estate
Replies: 139
Views: 16891

Re: I'm calling a bottom in real estate

Seems to me to be more likely than this being the top.
by willthrill81
Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we in a housing bubble?
Replies: 687
Views: 128195

Re: Are we in a housing bubble?

Have y’all not heard? Bigger is better? -bigger house -bigger vehicles -bigger boats -bigger debt loads It’s the cool thing to do. YOLO right? Because the music will never stop! Until it does. Then we'll see who doesn't have a chair. I just watched a news story trying to explain how this time is di...