Search found 164 matches

by Morse Code
Fri Apr 16, 2021 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario
Replies: 39
Views: 2666

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario

As long as you don't care when you retire, it might make sense. You have no assurances that you will "hit 25x" in the timeframe you desire. And being at 100% equity implies a higher level of volatility. Another risk is that you may not be able to control when you retire if something happe...
by Morse Code
Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario
Replies: 39
Views: 2666

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario

As long as you don't care when you retire, it might make sense. You have no assurances that you will "hit 25x" in the timeframe you desire. And being at 100% equity implies a higher level of volatility. Another risk is that you may not be able to control when you retire if something happe...
by Morse Code
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario
Replies: 39
Views: 2666

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario

Your assumption about the bull market and what happens to expected future equity returns doesn't make any sense. Remember, people retire (with 25x) every day. This assumption simply cannot hold true for everyone. I think it's pretty safe to say many, if not most, people retire after a long run of g...
by Morse Code
Thu Apr 15, 2021 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario
Replies: 39
Views: 2666

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario

Brianmcg321 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 5:38 pm What if the day before you retire the market drops 30% and you no longer have 25X expenses. Will you still retire or just work another year or two until you get your money back?
I would delay retirement and be grateful that it happened the day before I retired rather than the day after. :)
by Morse Code
Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario
Replies: 39
Views: 2666

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario

Karsten at ERN has written extensively on SORR, SWR, glidepaths, etc. His latest article on that subject suggests doing approximately what you suggest, depending on your risk tolerance: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2021/03/02/pre-retirement-glidepaths-swr-series-part-43/ Wow! Thank you. That arti...
by Morse Code
Thu Apr 15, 2021 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario
Replies: 39
Views: 2666

Sequence of Returns Risk Scenario

For the purpose of my question, I'd like to make a couple assumptions: 1) I can retire when I choose, which will be when I hit 25x expenses. 2) I will likely hit 25x during a bull market when expected future equity returns will be below average and consequently, sequence of returns risk will be abov...
by Morse Code
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?
Replies: 238
Views: 47102

Re: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?

This post has not aged well. That's the thing. Since I've been here, almost 10 years now, people have been saying the market is ahead of itself and primed for a major pull-back and that the expectations for the next 10 years should be significantly lower for the US market yet it marches on. Eventua...
by Morse Code
Wed Apr 07, 2021 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS
Replies: 19
Views: 1560

Re: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS

Thanks for the responses. It sounds like most of you are Luke-warm on VSS as a factor fund.
by Morse Code
Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS
Replies: 19
Views: 1560

Re: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS

I use VFVA (Vanguard Factor Value ETF) rather than VFMF; I have more faith in the value factor, and don't want to give up the deep-value exposure to hold other factors. I do use VSS for international small-cap blend, but I also hold value factors in international stock: IVLU (iShares EAFE Factor Va...
by Morse Code
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4434
Views: 341917

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

That's certainly fine to do, but I don't think it's accurate to say that you're not a rational investor if you reduce a tilt over time. An investor has a choice between two options: A) De-risk the portfolio by reducing a pre-existing factor tilt; B) De-risk the portfolio by the same amount as optio...
by Morse Code
Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS
Replies: 19
Views: 1560

Re: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS

Personally I would do this; 50% Vanguard all-world index fund VT (or VTI) 30% US scv 20% Intl scv I would save the tilt for the SCV portion, aside from that take what the market gives you, otherwise all your money is beholden to the ins-and-outs of factor fund construction. My guess is the VFMF mul...
by Morse Code
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS
Replies: 19
Views: 1560

Factorheads Opinions Please VFMF/VSS

My equity portfolio consists primarily of two ETFs, VFMF (Vanguard Multi-Factor) and VSS (int'l small cap index). In combination, these two give me simplicity, small and value tilts, emerging markets, and strike a cost balance I'm comfortable with; not as cheap as pure indexing, but not as pricey as...
by Morse Code
Sun Apr 04, 2021 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Factor Investing with ETFs
Replies: 59
Views: 4707

Re: Five Factor Investing with ETFs

I care more about the value and size factors, but I have a stronger overweight than you do, even with similar funds. For years, I have held 25% growth and 75% value, which means equal amounts in value and blend funds. I use AVDV for international small-cap value, IVLU (iShares MSCI EAFE Factor Valu...
by Morse Code
Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Five Factor Investing with ETFs
Replies: 59
Views: 4707

Re: Five Factor Investing with ETFs

I don't think the amount of tilt you have will make much difference. I care more about the value and size factors, but I have a stronger overweight than you do, even with similar funds. For years, I have held 25% growth and 75% value, which means equal amounts in value and blend funds. I use AVDV f...
by Morse Code
Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Useless Investment Books
Replies: 106
Views: 9154

Re: Useless Investment Books

I would put Rich Dad, Poor Dad at the top of my list of useless books in any category.
by Morse Code
Wed Mar 17, 2021 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Int’l small cap returns
Replies: 4
Views: 613

Re: Int’l small cap returns

Admiral Fun wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 4:53 pm Why own int’l small cap as a separate fund?
I don't hold it as a separate fund. It's my only Int'l holding.
by Morse Code
Fri Mar 12, 2021 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4434
Views: 341917

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

How ironic that 3 fund advocates promote the concept that their simple portfolio helps people avoid behavioral mistakes, then they feel the urge to repetitively come to this thread to get us SCV tilters to change our behavior. :oops:. SCV heads knew to stay the course all along. Ignore the noise, e...
by Morse Code
Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future...
Replies: 68
Views: 4709

Re: If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future...

...how are we to go about constructing our portfolio? If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future, why is any assset better than the other one? Which asset is better than another depends on which is right for you and that depends on knowing yourself, how m...
by Morse Code
Thu Jan 07, 2021 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future...
Replies: 68
Views: 4709

Re: If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future...

...how are we to go about constructing our portfolio? If we cannot predict future and if past results are not a reliable predictor of future, why is any assset better than the other one? I've always thought it was silly to say that. Past results are the only logical way to build a portfolio, in my ...
by Morse Code
Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Econ books
Replies: 19
Views: 975

Re: Econ books

Basic Economics by Thomas Sowell.
by Morse Code
Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29431

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

the article was published in january 2013. since then the compound average annual return (CAGR) of the Vanguard total stock market index has been 12.8% per year Which, of course, means that Bernstein, along with many other 'experts', was completely, totally wrong in his prediction of low returns, b...
by Morse Code
Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manual Glide Path Recommendations
Replies: 15
Views: 1061

Re: Manual Glide Path Recommendations

I don’t see it discussed much, but I base my glide path on my portfolio value and not on age or years to retirement. Ditto. It makes more sense to me to ratchet down risk as I approach my target balance rather than an age or year. In a bear market, I actually end up increasing my equity percentage ...
by Morse Code
Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 445
Views: 70841

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."

All of our views have been affected by recency bias and confirmation bias. Over the last 10-11 years the simple low cost TSM approach has blown everything else away. Bogle’s “Cost Matters Hypothesis”, while always true, has been especially true over this time period. The wisdom of modern portfolio ...
by Morse Code
Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have an allocation more conservative than 50/50 ?? What is it? Why? How Bogleheads are getting it done.
Replies: 166
Views: 21291

Re: Do you have an allocation more conservative than 50/50 ?? What is it? Why?

Up to 25 times expenses: 70/30 Above 25 but below 30 times expenses: 60/40 Above 30 but below 35 times expenses: 50/50 Above 35 times expenses: 40/60 I basically do the same thing. My glide path has nothing to do with my age, but my target balance. I'm about 80/20 right now, but when I hit my numbe...
by Morse Code
Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The worst investment advice I know
Replies: 170
Views: 14931

Re: The worst investment advice I know

pqwerty wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 9:43 am "Housing always goes up in value." - The Old Man (as long as I can remember till about 2008)
Good one.👍
by Morse Code
Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The worst investment advice I know
Replies: 170
Views: 14931

Re: The worst investment advice I know

KlangFool wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:22 am Folks,

Another one.

You can compensate for a low saving rate with an AA with a higher expected return.

KlangFool
I call, "strawman".
by Morse Code
Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The worst investment advice I know
Replies: 170
Views: 14931

Re: The worst investment advice I know

Stef wrote: Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:37 am "Everybody should have bonds".
+1

I took this advice 20 years ago in spite of the fact that it was not consistent with my need and ability to take risk. Fortunately, I quickly realized this and removed the bonds from my portfolio.
by Morse Code
Wed Oct 02, 2019 7:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is now just anti-technology
Replies: 30
Views: 3059

Re: Small Cap Value is now just anti-technology

Elysium wrote: Wed Oct 02, 2019 6:58 am Investing in SCV has always been and remains to be a hope that a handful winners will emerge from the pile of losers that it holds...
This sounds an awful lot like index fund investing.
by Morse Code
Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 304
Views: 49565

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

For whatever it's worth, I tried buying some shares of AVEM in a Merrill Edge Roth account today and they did not allow it for some reason. And they never will allow it. You see, these are active ETFs which Merrill Edge has decided cannot be purchased on their platform. You'll shoot your eye out. I...
by Morse Code
Fri Sep 27, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 304
Views: 49565

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

For whatever it's worth, I tried buying some shares of AVEM in a Merrill Edge Roth account today and they did not allow it for some reason.
by Morse Code
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 304
Views: 49565

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

I don't see anything in the int'l fund's summaries that specifically says developed only. The MSCI World ex-USA indexes track only developed markets: A free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. I thought ...
by Morse Code
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 304
Views: 49565

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

I don't see anything in the int'l fund's summaries that specifically says developed only. The MSCI World ex-USA indexes track only developed markets: A free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. I thought ...
by Morse Code
Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 304
Views: 49565

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

Couple questions: I assume International Equity and International Small Cap Value will not include emerging market stocks in their portfolios. Is that a safe assumption? Since US Equity and International Equity both focus on small cap stocks according to their prospectuses, isn't it redundant to al...
by Morse Code
Fri Sep 27, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 304
Views: 49565

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

Couple questions: I assume International Equity and International Small Cap Value will not include emerging market stocks in their portfolios. Is that a safe assumption? Since US Equity and International Equity both focus on small cap stocks according to their prospectuses, isn't it redundant to als...
by Morse Code
Wed Sep 18, 2019 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical Question for Factorheads
Replies: 23
Views: 1547

Re: Hypothetical Question for Factorheads

I thought my question was pretty straight forward, but for those looking for further explanation, I have been a small value investor for about 20 years. I have a Vanguard version of a Larry Portfolio. When Vanguard introduced VFMFX, I couldn't decide whether to adopt it in place of VSIAX or not, so ...
by Morse Code
Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical Question for Factorheads
Replies: 23
Views: 1547

Re: Hypothetical Question for Factorheads

If you could choose only one US stock fund for your portfolio and your only two choices were US Multi-factor (VFMFX) and Small Cap Value (VSIAX), which would you choose? They are both good choices, IMHO. I'd probably lean towards VFMFX because it has somewhat stronger factor diversification. The ex...
by Morse Code
Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hypothetical Question for Factorheads
Replies: 23
Views: 1547

Hypothetical Question for Factorheads

If you could choose only one US stock fund for your portfolio and your only two choices were US Multi-factor (VFMFX) and Small Cap Value (VSIAX), which would you choose?

P.S. You would still be allowed to choose international stock and US bond funds to add to your single US stock fund.
by Morse Code
Tue Aug 27, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway
Replies: 151
Views: 16318

Re: Best of Bogleheads - your #1 takeaway

The best predictor of investment performance is cost.
by Morse Code
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting new factor exposure tool
Replies: 21
Views: 2150

Re: Interesting new factor exposure tool

Is it correct to say VBR has more value exposure than VFMF, according to this tool?
by Morse Code
Mon Aug 19, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting new factor exposure tool
Replies: 21
Views: 2150

Re: Interesting new factor exposure tool

This looks great. Thanks for posting. I can't seem to figure out how to find these graphs on the info pages. I'm interested in VBR, VSS and VWO. VBR: https://i.imgur.com/2Vg1uDO.png VSS: https://i.imgur.com/60tDwul.png VWO: https://i.imgur.com/Kjeq9aB.png Thanks! Interesting...I had always heard VB...
by Morse Code
Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting new factor exposure tool
Replies: 21
Views: 2150

Re: Interesting new factor exposure tool

This looks great. Thanks for posting. I can't seem to figure out how to find these graphs on the info pages. I'm interested in VBR, VSS and VWO.
by Morse Code
Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trying to hit Robert T's factor targets in a three fund portfolio
Replies: 19
Views: 2113

Re: Trying to hit Robert T's factor targets in a three fund portfolio

I don't know how to analyse the factor loadings myself (I should learn). What would a three-fund with VFMF/VSS/VGIT look like with your goals in mind?
by Morse Code
Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 436
Views: 70269

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Those executing a glide path must be at 80/20 at some point. I intend to be 50/50 in retirement and I have a formula to gradually get there as I get closer to my target. My other option I guess is to go from 100/0 pre-retirement and switch to 50/50 at retirement? That seems pretty risky from a seque...
by Morse Code
Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio
Replies: 238
Views: 50318

Re: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio

I have almost exact portfolio with a few exceptions:

30% US Multi-Factor (VFMF)
10% Small Value (VBR)
35% Int'l Small (VSS)
5% Emerging Mkts (VWO)
20% Intermediate Term Treas. (VGIT)

Weighted ER .12
by Morse Code
Tue Jul 30, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio
Replies: 238
Views: 50318

Re: A low-cost 5 fund Boglehead portfolio

Steadfast wrote: Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:15 am If I was doing this I'd use VFVA for the U.S. small value fund. Way smaller, way more valuey.

But, I'm not doing this.
VFVA median market cap, 6.0 billion. VIOV median market cap, 1.6 billion.
by Morse Code
Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue
Replies: 1212
Views: 207167

Re: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue

I took my 2018 CRV EX on a road trip last weekend. Drove about 300 miles under ideal conditions, mostly highway, and averaged 36 mpg with 87 octane gas. My only symptom of this problem is a consistently higher reading on my dipstick, but there are no other signs of problems after 17,000 miles. Fuel ...
by Morse Code
Tue Jul 02, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue
Replies: 1212
Views: 207167

Re: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue

Dead Man Walking wrote: Mon Jul 01, 2019 11:50 pm...Honda probably doesn’t give a rat’s tail about Honda owners perceptions of their “wonderful” vehicles.

DMW
And yet, they asked you, a Honda owner, your perception of their vehicles.
by Morse Code
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue
Replies: 1212
Views: 207167

Re: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue

Every review I've read puts the CRV #1 over it's competitors and it doesn't surprise me a bit. You apparently missed this important one... https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a25603385/10best-trucks-suvs-2019/ Why is it more important than this one or all the others? https://www.motortrend.com/ca...
by Morse Code
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Side x Side/Utility Vehicle
Replies: 20
Views: 2133

Re: Side x Side/Utility Vehicle

I've never owned a UTV, but I've had ATVs for decades. I work for a Fortune 500 insurance company and I manage our Off-Road Vehicle insurance program, so I'm up on the industry. My bias is toward reliability, so I favor Honda for their well-deserved reputation. I assume you had a reason for eliminat...
by Morse Code
Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue
Replies: 1212
Views: 207167

Re: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue

I bought a 2018 with the 1.5l in March of 2018, about a week before I saw this thread. I have chimed in a few times to offer my experience as another data point. I've driven 16,500 miles so far under the worst possible conditions with a two mile commute and just got through the brutal Polar Vortex w...