Search found 4118 matches

by marcopolo
Wed Apr 14, 2021 3:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make $126K tax free and optimize ACA PTC & Standard Deduction
Replies: 7
Views: 942

Re: Make $126K tax free and optimize ACA PTC & Standard Deduction

Marcopolo, could you please explain the 35% marginal tax rate? The situation you described has you right at the cusp of where your capital gains and dividends become taxable at 15%. So, every additional dollar of income gets taxed at 12%, but it also pushes a dollars of cap gains/dividends into the...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 5:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Make $126K tax free and optimize ACA PTC & Standard Deduction
Replies: 7
Views: 942

Re: Make $126K tax free and optimize ACA PTC & Standard Deduction

I was working with the 2021 CashFlow tax calculator from bogleheads wiki to optimize my income/tax/ACA PTC strategy. I would like to: 1) maximize income 2) minimize tax 3) minimize ACA Premium 4) maximize ACA PTC If one was (MFJ) to recognize LTCG/QD of about $80K and convert IRA to Roth up to the ...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 243
Views: 12857

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

So you're saying that 2.8% is already a 10th percentile outcome in your model? 2.8% is Pfau's number. I'd estimate the 10th percentile as being a little bit higher, at maybe 3.0% to 3.25%. In my mind, given my preferences, a solid retirement plan would be one that starts at roughly a 4.5% withdrawa...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 243
Views: 12857

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

My point is that I strongly suspect that vineviz's model is overly pessimistic, partly because it sounds like it doesn't take into account the fact that stock prices and expected returns tend to move against each other. Such a suspicion would be unfounded. Adjusting for serial correlation of return...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 243
Views: 12857

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

4% "rule of thumb" is close to what you are saying... 25 years of expenses that should last 30 years. Because we expect SOME growth over 30 years. Your idea is 30 years of expenses to last 30 years (or 40 years of expenses to last 40 years). That's pretty conservative, assuming zero real ...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions
Replies: 35
Views: 3978

Re: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions

Setting all allocations the same, even though you have bonds only in tax-deferred, improves the analysis by avoiding the drifting allocation problem. But, it still suggests larger Roth Conversions than necessary because the 60/40 allocated tIRA will appear to grow much faster than a bonds only tIRA...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions
Replies: 35
Views: 3978

Re: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions

Setting all allocations the same, even though you have bonds only in tax-deferred, improves the analysis by avoiding the drifting allocation problem. But, it still suggests larger Roth Conversions than necessary because the 60/40 allocated tIRA will appear to grow much faster than a bonds only tIRA...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions
Replies: 35
Views: 3978

Re: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions

Thanks for these tips. I think I’ve seen others say to be sure to have RPM show different asset allocations, but I think for my purposes it would make more sense to set them all the same. Maybe see how that looks, and then change them to “reality” and compare. Yes, different asset allocation in dif...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think
Replies: 578
Views: 39221

Re: CAPE: A much stronger predictor of stock returns than many think

Just looked at the current PE ratios. What is CAPE predicting about future returns? How far into the future and what direction? The red line on the 1989-2010 scatterplot looks about negative 2% when CAPE is 37, correct? Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 42.00 -0.04 (-0.09%) 1:29 PM EDT, Mon Apr 12 http...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 243
Views: 12857

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

Wait, you switched from real to nominal returns. Sure, no one is expecting 12% nominal returns. But, no one is expecting double digit inflation either, are they? Why would 12% nominal be needed with 2% inflation? I should have stuck with real returns: if you know anyone who, with a straight face, c...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 243
Views: 12857

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

It seems like the weakness in such an argument is that people can and do come up with different forward expectations - the future is just that cloudy. SWR having a technical definition (10% fail rate) doesn't make the value actionable unless those forward estimates are reliable. Tells us how you ca...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 243
Views: 12857

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

The argument that past success may not apply here is based on us having historically high valuations for both stocks and bonds. To the extent that PE ratios predict long term stock returns, they imply poor real returns for stocks and current yields imply similarly poor returns for bonds. Thus, so t...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House Building vs. Buying in this Market?
Replies: 21
Views: 2043

Re: House Building vs. Buying in this Market?

Hello! Our retirement is on track. We move to the eastern Tennessee area the end of the summer. The housing market there is hot (?irrational exuberance?), as in many places in the US. Difficult to plan for during multi-year retirement planning, and just bad luck for us that it happened at the time ...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions
Replies: 35
Views: 3978

Re: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions

Thank you. I am in California, so no rolling over 401 to IRA for me. No annuities either, even if I wanted one. I believe 70% protection in case of default. I know it's rare, but SWAN is a big priority for me. Speaking of which, I hadn't properly reviewed my AA's for a couple of months. My 30/70 ov...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions
Replies: 35
Views: 3978

Re: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions

Thank you. Am I correct that much of what you stated cannot be accomplished from my t401K, but only from a tIRA? QCD can only come from tIRA. Other things can be done in either 401k or tIRA. For simplicity, we rolled all our 401k to IRAs. The only concern with that would be liability/judgement prot...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions
Replies: 35
Views: 3978

Re: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions

Ok, this is good, I see why after tax spendable income is a better metric. I’ll sit down with RPM and study it again, after adjusting my AA settings on the accounts. I’ll do the same with Celia’s spreadsheet to get a feel for it that way too. If my retirement accounts are currently 50/50, and my Ro...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions
Replies: 35
Views: 3978

Re: Age 63 retired, planning how to use Roth conversions

I think my main question as I am digging into this is, what are my metrics for a good Roth plan ? It seems it would be total taxes/IRMAA paid, compared between models. Size of portfolio at the end is going to vary according to how I set the AA's in the model. Is that also an important metric, or is...
by marcopolo
Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Ed Slott's new book NEW RETIREMENT SAVINGS TIME BOMB
Replies: 154
Views: 11080

Re: Ed Slott's new book NEW RETIREMENT SAVINGS TIME BOMB

Cold hard fact I found now that I am retired: With our $50K in SS, anything past approx $25K additional ($75K gross) puts us into the current 22% bracket. So every $ I convert to my Roth, I pay 22% as Fed Taxes. As a comparison, 22% normally starts around $115K gross for working folks. What was you...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone contemplating OLY (One Less Year)?
Replies: 52
Views: 4724

Re: Anyone contemplating OLY (One Less Year)?

no because you are at increase SORR now due to the market being at all time highs (in terms of valuation), I think this is the time to create a good size buffer The market spends about 1/3 of its time within 5% of "all time highs" During bull runs, that constraint could make it tough to r...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone contemplating OLY (One Less Year)?
Replies: 52
Views: 4724

Re: Anyone contemplating OLY (One Less Year)?

If you hit your # early, and are ready to go, why not? Scale back your AA if it’s necessary. Even with the recent run up, I’m not close I've read (JL Collins I believe) point out that retiring when you reach a number makes you more susceptible to sequence of returns risk, as you are more likely to ...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are architect estimates for construction costs usually pretty accurate?
Replies: 21
Views: 1460

Re: Are architect estimates for construction costs usually pretty accurate?

I've known a handful of people who've done builds or large remodels using an architect. None have stayed in budget. Some ended at 2x original cost. Best wishes. +1 The most extreme example I’ve seen of this was where the original project price was 2.1 million and after a 2-3 year final completion t...
by marcopolo
Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Family with 4 little humans: chances of retiring/financial independence
Replies: 70
Views: 7060

Re: Family with 4 little humans: chances of retiring/financial independence

If you would like to retire early in 20 years and have financial independence, then I think you can simplify down to the following: Save & invest 50% of your annual gross income every year. That's it. Simple. And "gross" means before any taxes and expenses. That's before income taxes,...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion order cancellation (1st post)
Replies: 11
Views: 979

Re: Roth conversion order cancellation (1st post)

Given the information we have, how would having the year end with a 20% gain make this a good move? Because the taxes would be paid on a smaller amount (today’s IRA value—-or a percentage of it). In addition, if/when taxes are raised, we might all wish we had taken more advantage of today’s tax bra...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion order cancellation (1st post)
Replies: 11
Views: 979

Re: Roth conversion order cancellation (1st post)

In the worst case and the order goes through, do you have enough in taxable to pay the taxes (even if you have to sell something)? If so, time may show that you made a good move, such as if the year ends 20%+ higher. Your love of Roth Conversions really has no bounds. I admire your commitment. Give...
by marcopolo
Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth conversion order cancellation (1st post)
Replies: 11
Views: 979

Re: Roth conversion order cancellation (1st post)

TLDR - help I was doing some financial planning this weekend and wanted to make sure I got some IRA contributions in 2020. I already am maxing out my 401k contributions. Well, I (ignorantly/naively) decided I should convert the small Vanguard IRA I hold with non-deductible contributions to a Roth s...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6714

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Yes. Certainly, when I bought the fund I was informed that was a risk. More generally, we all appreciate the tenet that correlations go to 1 in a crisis. We usually see the benefits of diversification in a more subtle fashion during calmer times. I don’t think I’m spinning or revising. Now I'm conf...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6714

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

Yes. Certainly, when I bought the fund I was informed that was a risk. More generally, we all appreciate the tenet that correlations go to 1 in a crisis. We usually see the benefits of diversification in a more subtle fashion during calmer times. I don’t think I’m spinning or revising. Now I'm conf...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College Student Tax Status
Replies: 8
Views: 611

Re: College Student Tax Status

With $500 earned income, they are absolutely your dependent, so likely no stimulus. Maybe the AOTC refundable part since they have no tax liability. And then you would lose the $500 credit for other dependents, so at most $500 back to your daughter. Could be worth it. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pd...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: APTC elmination for tax year 2020
Replies: 7
Views: 664

Re: APTC elmination for tax year 2020

One can go over the 400% threshold and will have to repay some APTC. The payback amount is capped at 8.5% of income. In the section on the KFF website titled Premium Tax Credit Repayment Holiday for 2020 , it says Recognizing that the pandemic caused greater-than-usual economic disruption and uncer...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: APTC elmination for tax year 2020
Replies: 7
Views: 664

Re: APTC elmination for tax year 2020

One over the 400% threshold will have to repay APTC, but the payback amount is capped at 8.5% of income. I think the 8.5% cap only applies to 2021 and 2022. I have not seen anything saying the payback is capped at that for 2020. Do you have a source for that? For 2020, there was no cap, but there i...
by marcopolo
Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6714

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

One of the last things I would want as a "diversifier" of equity risk is something designed to tank when equity volatility spikes even if it never blew up due to liquidity problems. What's funny is that Taleb, who wrote Black Swan, recommended buying volatility insurance to protect agains...
by marcopolo
Sun Apr 04, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund
Replies: 133
Views: 6714

Re: Stone Ridge All Asset Variance Risk Premium Fund

It is a genius move.
Now, due to survivorship bias, pretty soon they will be able to show a chart about how x% of their funds have performed well, leaving this failed fund out of their marketing material.
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 03, 2021 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Odd -(probably boneheaded) Tax question
Replies: 22
Views: 2225

Re: Odd -(probably boneheaded) Tax question

I am looking at the supporting worksheets. 1. - Background Worksheet - Background Information Worksheet 2. - Last Year's Data Worksheet - Last Year's Data Worksheet 3. - Form 1099-INT/OID - Interest Income Worksheet1 4. - Form 1099-INT/OID - Interest Income Worksheet2 5. - Form 1099-INT/OID - Inter...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Odd -(probably boneheaded) Tax question
Replies: 22
Views: 2225

Re: Odd -(probably boneheaded) Tax question

Filed taxes using HR block software a few weeks ago. Got return of about $1600. Return was deposited earlier this week. When putting up tax stuff, slapped forehead and realized I omitted a 1099INT (from account opening bonus). 1099 INT was for $350. Ammended return. Refund was reduced by $95. Sent ...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Odd -(probably boneheaded) Tax question
Replies: 22
Views: 2225

Re: Odd -(probably boneheaded) Tax question

Filed taxes using HR block software a few weeks ago. Got return of about $1600. Return was deposited earlier this week. When putting up tax stuff, slapped forehead and realized I omitted a 1099INT (from account opening bonus). 1099 INT was for $350. Ammended return. Refund was reduced by $95. Sent ...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 29670

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

He probably thinks the 1970’s were “average” times. I have to think by now the people who don’t understand the study are pretty entrenched. You can explain but obviously we’ve already had 50 threads like this and they didn’t listen then. It’s fair to look at situations from other countries where th...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is so great about dividends? Alot of misinformation?
Replies: 219
Views: 44433

Re: What is so great about dividends? Alot of misinformation?

So many analysts discuss dividend paying stocks and make it seem like buying a stock without dividends is a bone head move that causes you to miss out on guaranteed income. Although, every definition of dividends that I have read online explain that a dividend does not increase the value of a stock...
by marcopolo
Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)
Replies: 421
Views: 29670

Re: 4% rule disputed (Again??!!)

He probably thinks the 1970’s were “average” times. I have to think by now the people who don’t understand the study are pretty entrenched. You can explain but obviously we’ve already had 50 threads like this and they didn’t listen then. It’s fair to look at situations from other countries where th...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Cents On Roth Conversions
Replies: 32
Views: 3931

Re: Common Cents On Roth Conversions

There is the possibility of the non-spousal beneficiaries of TIRAs being in a higher tax rate, perhaps a son or daughter who inherits assets in TIRAs just as they are in their peak earning years. The equation has changed since the demise of stretch IRAs. Taxes can be lowered for current owners of T...
by marcopolo
Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Common Cents On Roth Conversions
Replies: 32
Views: 3931

Re: Common Cents On Roth Conversions

Nice article on the math of Roth v IRA v Taxable with some clear charts. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4417323-common-cents-roth-conversions?mail_subject=forget-tesla-these-2-high-yielding-stocks-win-no-matter-what&utm_campaign=nl-investing-income&utm_content=link-21&utm_medium=email...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14449
Views: 1111533

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Even Charlie Munger says the next decade we can expect very little returns. https://i.imgur.com/1zP6usG.png This picture speaks a thousand words. At this point it is entirely clear to everyone this is out of whack. "You can't time the market!" seems like learned helplessness at some point...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14449
Views: 1111533

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Even Charlie Munger says the next decade we can expect very little returns. https://i.imgur.com/1zP6usG.png This picture speaks a thousand words. At this point it is entirely clear to everyone this is out of whack. "You can't time the market!" seems like learned helplessness at some point...
by marcopolo
Thu Apr 01, 2021 11:23 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Congratulation HomerJ!!! [on your pending retirement]
Replies: 22
Views: 3506

Congratulation HomerJ!!! [on your pending retirement]

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:42 pm
4000 for me... I'm retiring when it hits that (or in 4 years, whichever comes first).

I assume you have turned in your retirement notice! :sharebeer

Jump on in, the water is nice.
by marcopolo
Tue Mar 30, 2021 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?
Replies: 47
Views: 2599

Re: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?

" Really few benefit that much from Roth conversions. " Who benefits the most and who benefits the least? And for those who do benefit, what's the most efficient way, and when, to do the conversions? "Who benefits the most?" Generally these items will cause Roth conversions to b...
by marcopolo
Tue Mar 30, 2021 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?
Replies: 47
Views: 2599

Re: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?

" Really few benefit that much from Roth conversions. " Who benefits the most and who benefits the least? And for those who do benefit, what's the most efficient way, and when, to do the conversions? "Who benefits the most?" Generally these items will cause Roth conversions to b...
by marcopolo
Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?
Replies: 47
Views: 2599

Re: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?

I-ORP lets you put in a maximum annual contribution while working. It will divide this amount among your account types. So you wouldn't add your wife's salary, but you would add her total annual contribution of all savings here, and it should accumulate balances for the overall plan, divining this ...
by marcopolo
Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs no dividends. A case study.
Replies: 53
Views: 3852

Re: Dividends vs no dividends quantified

What is the value to a shareholder of cash held in a company which will never be distributed to shareholders? Presumably the market will provide a higher market capitalization, taking into account the cash on hand. The investor can access this cash represented in the higher market value by simply s...
by marcopolo
Mon Mar 29, 2021 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs no dividends. A case study.
Replies: 53
Views: 3852

Re: Dividends vs no dividends quantified

Some of you obviously haven’t even read what I posted in full. I sense a bit of dogma here. It seems people have read your post(s) quite thoroughly, and provided detailed explanation of why your thinking is wrong. You seem to have either not read them, or not understood them. All you have done is l...
by marcopolo
Mon Mar 29, 2021 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?
Replies: 47
Views: 2599

Re: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?

I-ORP lets you put in a maximum annual contribution while working. It will divide this amount among your account types. So you wouldn't add your wife's salary, but you would add her total annual contribution of all savings here, and it should accumulate balances for the overall plan, divining this ...
by marcopolo
Mon Mar 29, 2021 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?
Replies: 47
Views: 2599

Re: Include ACA Income Limit in i-ORP or Not?

I-ORP lets you put in a maximum annual contribution while working. It will divide this amount among your account types. So you wouldn't add your wife's salary, but you would add her total annual contribution of all savings here, and it should accumulate balances for the overall plan, divining this ...