Search found 1897 matches

by petulant
Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Oklahoma City (OKC) Bogleheads Local Chapter
Replies: 66
Views: 11103

Re: Oklahoma City (OKC) Bogleheads Local Chapter

Hi everybody! We have not had a meeting since the start of the coronavirus lockdown, and I hope everybody has stayed safe and healthy during the last six months. At this time, the chapter could consider putting together a virtual meeting or a small in-person meeting depending on interest and complia...
by petulant
Wed Oct 14, 2020 4:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WCI Debt & Mortgage Payoff VHCOL $700k payoff WWYD
Replies: 16
Views: 1820

Re: WCI Debt & Mortgage Payoff VHCOL $700k payoff WWYD

You should make the decision based on broad personal financial goals. As you should be able to tell from the thread you linked, the strong BH responses show that the WCI blog post is only one perspective for formulating your priorities and has many critics who disagree with aspects of it. For exampl...
by petulant
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor
Replies: 215
Views: 27034

Re: The Wrong Way to Think About Debt - The White Coat Investor

How am I supposed to believe all of the thoughtful, critical comments on this thread? WCI already told me about you all. Clearly you're just 25-year-olds who aren't already rich like WCI.
by petulant
Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does it make sense to quit high paying job for pension?
Replies: 53
Views: 4680

Re: Does it make sense to quit high paying job for pension?

Moving into a job that only makes sense if you stay for 20 years is very risky because you have no idea if you'll actually like it for 20 days, let alone 20 years. One gives up significant bargaining power in a bad way--even if it seems nice for a few years, managers change, and you can be miserable...
by petulant
Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Difference between 4(a)(2) and 144A private placements
Replies: 1
Views: 386

Re: Difference between 4(a)(2) and 144A private placements

Rule 144A transactions are technically not "private placements" under 4(a)(2), they're offerings that don't involve issuers, underwriters, or dealers under 4(a)(1). Generally, the securities laws are designed to prevent issuers and their associates from distributing securities without regi...
by petulant
Mon Oct 12, 2020 7:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Cash Out and Invest My Whole Life Insurance?
Replies: 49
Views: 3855

Re: Should I Cash Out and Invest My Whole Life Insurance?

The decision whether to surrender the policy should be made based on a current illustration that shows guaranteed values and values using the current dividend scale. Generally, because the policy has already been paid for many years and is almost completely paid up, it is very likely to have excelle...
by petulant
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use of Whole Life Insurance for Estate Planning
Replies: 61
Views: 3857

Re: Use of Whole Life Insurance for Estate Planning

Another question: how much does trust administration cost? Even if one could be convinced that the whole life insurance policy is fine, is it still fine after paying for the trustee? Depends on the institution. Usually an AUM fee. I'm not asking in the abstract, I'm asking for OP. It needs to be co...
by petulant
Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Use of Whole Life Insurance for Estate Planning
Replies: 61
Views: 3857

Re: Use of Whole Life Insurance for Estate Planning

Another question: how much does trust administration cost? Even if one could be convinced that the whole life insurance policy is fine, is it still fine after paying for the trustee?
by petulant
Fri Oct 09, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hidden costs of 529 and a way to overcome that
Replies: 26
Views: 2060

Re: Hidden costs of 529 and a way to overcome that

Overcoming hidden cost of a 529 plan, or so says this post. Is there any merit in this approach, is this even legit, or this guy blowing smoke. I see many ethical issues even if this were to be legal. How to save on college grants Listen to this and share your thoughts please? in case it benefits a...
by petulant
Fri Oct 09, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocation - DFW considerations
Replies: 55
Views: 4489

Re: Relocation - DFW considerations

DFW dwellers can drive to Texas Hill Country and other things around Austin/San Antonio; New Mexico; and a few things in S Oklahoma like the Wichitas and Ouachitas. Also many lakes in north and central Texas and SE Oklahoma are driveable. A weekend trip to Tulsa for museums and scenery would probabl...
by petulant
Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hidden costs of 529 and a way to overcome that
Replies: 26
Views: 2060

Re: Hidden costs of 529 and a way to overcome that

It's a webinar on basics for planning for college financial aid. It will likely lead to the possibility of advising relationships for the firm. After spending a few minutes reviewing the firm's website, it appears this is an entirely legitimate counseling company with no mention of cash value life i...
by petulant
Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS and Trust distributions problem
Replies: 30
Views: 1485

Re: SS and Trust distributions problem

Why aren't you getting advice from your attorney? The advice was put 1800 dollars into the trust,make the distributions and reimburse myself when SS mails the final check,probably sometime in 2022.( my guess) As I said,they will not even confirm they owe the money. I would prefer to just distribute...
by petulant
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SS and Trust distributions problem
Replies: 30
Views: 1485

Re: SS and Trust distributions problem

Why aren't you getting advice from your attorney?
by petulant
Thu Oct 08, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The Paradox of Golden Handcuffs
Replies: 6
Views: 1140

Re: The Paradox of Golden Handcuffs

Some pensions do have early retirement options. I'm thinking of my public employee pension system.
by petulant
Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If equity investors are entitled to the net income of a company, why are DCFs used?
Replies: 8
Views: 1078

Re: If equity investors are entitled to the net income of a company, why are DCFs used?

OP, a DCF model should technically be focused on cashflows in some way, with "dividend discount" models and "discounted earnings" models being alternatives. However, in everyday financial talk, people tend to use "DCF" to include any discounting model, including using e...
by petulant
Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finally, a Good Reason to tilt towards Dividends
Replies: 31
Views: 4910

Re: Finally, a Good Reason to tilt towards Dividends

This is a great idea and fully consistent with capital market theories. The devil is in the details and whether it empirically presents an available opportunity. JackoC makes a good point that there are many untaxed investors out there that may already exhaust this opportunity, including pension fun...
by petulant
Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MLPs - A Word of Caution [Master Limited Partnership]
Replies: 35
Views: 3125

MLPs - A Word of Caution [Master Limited Partnership]

Many investors are not aware that MLPs create a delayed tax bill due to the nature of their business. They typically return cash flows to customers in the form of partnership distributions, with tax liabilities reduced through the use of non-cash tax expenses like depreciation. The result, however, ...
by petulant
Mon Oct 05, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Econ books
Replies: 19
Views: 973

Re: Econ books

We used Hal Varian's Intermediate Microeconomics mentioned by Ben Mathew above when I was in undergrad. I liked the book enough to keep it and actually refer to it occasionally when relevant to my job.

Honestly nothing can beat a good, interactive economics lecture though.
by petulant
Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Re: Starting a Vineyard

Northern Flicker wrote: Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:22 pm There are wineries in the midwest. Examples in Iowa:

http://iowawinetrail.com/index.html
That's interesting since I imagine they have to work hard on cold resistance there
by petulant
Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Re: Starting a Vineyard

A friend wrote a good, simple book `Vineyard Simple'. As a hobby after his legal career he created a company that managed and installed vineyards in homes for roughly the cost of traditional landscaping. He would be a good resource. You might consider buying a copy online, as it is a less intimidat...
by petulant
Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Re: Starting a Vineyard

Long-time hobbyist grape grower and "garagiste" winemaker here. You have gotten some good advice on the realities you will encounter. Figure at least a year of site preparation before planting. Then three years of growing the vines til they're mature enough to take a full crop, pruning an...
by petulant
Fri Oct 02, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential Family Land Sale - 120 Acres Austin, TX Area
Replies: 51
Views: 5615

Re: Potential Family Land Sale - 120 Acres Austin, TX

I would hold until you have clear options for lease-revenue-based investment.
by petulant
Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential Family Land Sale - 120 Acres Austin, TX Area
Replies: 51
Views: 5615

Re: Potential Family Land Sale - 120 Acres Austin, TX

I came here to say this. Austin has been and will continue to grow. It's basically SFO or NYC for cool young tech people without income taxes. :annoyed Love, A local native CA, NY, NJ, MA, MD have the issue of being on the wrong side of a "Race to the bottom" combined with mobile workers,...
by petulant
Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Potential Family Land Sale - 120 Acres Austin, TX Area
Replies: 51
Views: 5615

Re: Potential Family Land Sale - 120 Acres Austin, TX

Can you enter an agreement with developers that does not involve sale for all of the land, by keeping rights over major corners and/or other parts that would be ideal for commercial? You could then keep commercial and work with a developer for NNN-type revenue. Might be able to use the sale of part ...
by petulant
Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard closing institutional investors - Australia
Replies: 3
Views: 641

Re: Vanguard closing institutional investors - Australia

Seems pretty narrow--they're not offering custom-managed investing (separately managed accounts), but they're still doing their normal fund offerings. It appears that if a pension fund wanted to, it could buy into a Vanguard fund, but their mandates would probably prevent for some reason. Sounds lik...
by petulant
Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending
Replies: 10
Views: 766

Re: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending

Well, I don't know exactly how to read that data, like is the "available" one what's available inside the IBKR platform or in the whole market? etc. But that's a start to getting more data. Total outstanding shares for VOO is like 520 million. This number is about 1 million. I'm guessing ...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs Vanguard 500
Replies: 9
Views: 1143

Re: S&P 500 vs Vanguard 500

S&P 500 was up 27.53 (0.83%) on 9/30. VFIAX (Vanguard S&P 500 Index Fund Admiral) is the fund that's down -1.45 (-0.47%) but that was for 9/29. It was up 2.54 (0.83%) today, matching the S&P. So it wasn't the dividend distribution but instead it was comparing prices from different days....
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward revenue vs. annualized revenue
Replies: 4
Views: 255

Re: Forward revenue vs. annualized revenue

Yes, "annualization" generally refers to taking a single event or shorter time period and extrapolating the effects of that event or time period to an entire year. Annualization that extrapolates the most recent quarter would be extremely misleading in a cyclical business, yes. My expectat...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending
Replies: 10
Views: 766

Re: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending

SPY is the "systemically important financial institution" of ETFs as far as lending, short selling, options, etc. go. It is extremely liquid and preferred by traders for these reasons. It is not clear whether that makes it a good option for generating securities lending revenue. There may...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Re: Starting a Vineyard

Caveating that I am not a vineyard owner. I happen to make a lot of wine, and know some folks who own personal and commercial vineyards. In a place like the Midwest (big though that the region is), you should go into this with the expectation that it will be a lot of work, a very pretty penny (whet...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending
Replies: 10
Views: 766

Re: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending

SPY is the "systemically important financial institution" of ETFs as far as lending, short selling, options, etc. go. It is extremely liquid and preferred by traders for these reasons. It is not clear whether that makes it a good option for generating securities lending revenue. There may...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Re: Starting a Vineyard

I have not started or operated a vineyard. What I have seen are results based on soil, micro-climate, grape selection and wine making experience. Visit the area you want to have a vineyard. Talk to the locals, look at the successful operations and the not so successful operations. One example we re...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Re: Starting a Vineyard

Depends on your definition of a vineyard... is it an agricultural business that will sell grapes to winemakers? Or do you intend to grow grapes and make wine. Or, is it a multi revenue stream destination? Everyone i know in the industry (doing all 3 of the above) either started with many multi-mill...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Re: Starting a Vineyard

General region, vineyard size, intended use, and establishment details might allow folks to come in a little more thoughtfully. Personal, commercial, or a hybrid where it's a personal vineyard you sell grapes on Craigslist or the like? Thinking Midwest, 10-20 acres, lifestyle business. Something I ...
by petulant
Wed Sep 30, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending
Replies: 10
Views: 766

Re: Much higher short interest in SPY than in VOO? Stock lending

SPY is the "systemically important financial institution" of ETFs as far as lending, short selling, options, etc. go. It is extremely liquid and preferred by traders for these reasons. It is not clear whether that makes it a good option for generating securities lending revenue. There may ...
by petulant
Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Starting a Vineyard
Replies: 30
Views: 3113

Starting a Vineyard

Have any of the BH gone through the steps of starting a vineyard? Any experience or insight? How did you get started?
by petulant
Tue Sep 29, 2020 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 13277

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

Have moderators/admins ever considered having a central US vs Int’l thread? Kinda like the soaring, free fall, three fund, and refi mega threads. Just a thought. Outside of a teeny, tiny amount in Aussie individual stocks (pre-BH), I choose not to hold international. This has absolutely nothing to ...
by petulant
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 66
Views: 5682

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

I would love to know what percentage of people in Japan actually own stocks (or at least a meaningful amount as to where it would matter personally). My suspicion is it's quite low. Even in the USA it's only like 50% of the population owning stocks, right? I'd be shocked if it's anything close to t...
by petulant
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8624
Views: 841089

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Here's another question though. The graph indicates that the impact on bond prices from a 1% change in prevailing yields becomes much larger as yields go lower. But is a 1% change in yields just as likely in an environment where previous yields were 1% as they are in an environment where yields are ...
by petulant
Mon Sep 28, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 13277

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

I am arguing that currency risk is not a beneficial impact of foreign equities and the presence of it is a reason to hold a foreign allocation at less than market weight. You keep repeating this, yes, and I've been asking you (so far unsuccessfully) to explain HOW you think that works. A portfolio ...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 13277

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

Currency risk is a big one. Yes, most international funds hedge this risk, but that is a cost that is not compensated with additional expected return. It seems with the large amount of imported goods, being all USD has more currency risk than having some exposure to foreign currency. Also I think m...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 13277

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

With that clarified, yes, what I'm talking about is how the portfolio performs under different conditions to support household economic wellbeing. The outcome of the literature that I am relaying is not whether domestic/international equity allocation is a powerful tool to manage overall risk, it's...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 216
Views: 20822

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

Have you read the article, "Maybe There’s Something to the Shiller CAPE Ratio, After All". It's written by John Rekenthaler, Vice President of Research for Morningstar. I think it might just change your mind about the predictive powers of CAPE. The author, himself, was skeptical about CAP...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 13277

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

A huge portion of Canada's economy is linked to trade, and the stock market in Canada is concentrated in financials and minerals. That means a weaker currency may have worse household utility impacts due to more foreign inputs and a lower likelihood of substitutability of products. Many of the fact...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 4405
Views: 338149

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Let's come up with some kind of test for that. Like we could look historically to see if companies rated AA would go on to default or go bankrupt less often than companies rated BB, who would turn out to be less risky than companies rated CC, etc. Or maybe we could look at if lower rated companies ...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS Needs 7% Return
Replies: 107
Views: 14072

Re: CALPERS Needs 7% Return

Meh. A state pension is a good "fixed income" component, payable as per the contract terms, to the employee. And it will be paid out as any other obligation would be even if its target is not met - tax/fee revenue, POB, etc. I believed (and still do) that I would be better off financially...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 13277

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

I wouldn't confine the concepts to liabilities since many investors may have utility functions that go past liabilities (e.g. a "needs" budget, a "wants" budget, and then charity/legacy). Liability implies a known, definite cost that doesn't describe the complete utility functio...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CALPERS Needs 7% Return
Replies: 107
Views: 14072

Re: CALPERS Needs 7% Return

Meh. A state pension is a good "fixed income" component, payable as per the contract terms, to the employee. And it will be paid out as any other obligation would be even if its target is not met - tax/fee revenue, POB, etc. I believed (and still do) that I would be better off financially...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 604
Views: 129207

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

It was especially odd that they said they try to make sure dividends were sustainable etc. but then said their bottom line is a total return approach that will benefit investor more over the long term. They are likely very cognizant of the fact that many investors are drawn to dividends and want to...
by petulant
Sun Sep 27, 2020 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 13277

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

I didn't say that. I said currency risk impacts household utility. Currency fluctuations impact labor income by making one's job more or less prone to foreign competition, and it impacts the consumption budget by potentially making certain consumption items more expensive. Currency risk thus impact...