Search found 1802 matches

by Scott S
Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 4% Rule - Simplified?
Replies: 19
Views: 1443

Re: The 4% Rule - Simplified?

Welcome to the forum, Aramis. The 4% rule as generally defined does NOT make any promise that you will still have your original amount left every year, only that you (probably) won't go broke after 30 years. For a withdrawal rate that does try to maintain your original amount, think about the PWR: h...
by Scott S
Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13832

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

Considering most bogleheads are very conservative, I don’t get why “SWR” rates are so heavily discussed when we know ANY flexibility drastically increases your chances of success. I think it would be more prudent to make a more realistic withdrawal method the standard so that we can stop talking ab...
by Scott S
Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency (oh my God fund)
Replies: 45
Views: 4585

Re: Emergency (oh my God fund)

I was 1 year. Now, I may be retiring if I cannot find the next job. Hence, I increase my EF to 3 years. KlangFool Dumb question: How are you adding to your EF if you're not working? Portfolio growth. My portfolio had exceed my FI target of 1.5 million. Hence, I am harvesting some of the gain to my ...
by Scott S
Tue Apr 13, 2021 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Emergency (oh my God fund)
Replies: 45
Views: 4585

Re: Emergency (oh my God fund)

KlangFool wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:40 pmI was 1 year. Now, I may be retiring if I cannot find the next job. Hence, I increase my EF to 3 years.

KlangFool
Dumb question: How are you adding to your EF if you're not working?
by Scott S
Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 410
Views: 35128

Re: International is in meltdown

Tamalak wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:57 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:53 pm
abuss368 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 2:14 pm I do recall Mr. Bogle getting out completely in 2020.
That would be remarkable given Jack passed away in 2019.
"Even in death, I still rebalance"
Talk about a long investment horizon! :wink:
by Scott S
Mon Apr 12, 2021 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 214
Views: 17803

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

It's too bad inflation swaps aren't more readily available to retail investors. That's probably the best way for people who "know" that significant inflation is coming to put their money where their mouth is.
by Scott S
Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13832

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

Hasn't the real yield on bonds been negative before?
by Scott S
Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z
Replies: 90
Views: 9054

Re: “Buy and Hold No More” says A16Z

I don’t know that active investing is actually going to do better in the long term, but it sure seems like it will, especially compared to anyone with a heavy bond allocation... because stocks only go up. I say that a bit facetiously but it has become true; the Fed will not let stocks go down. If e...
by Scott S
Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13832

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

I'm not gonna pay to read the article in the OP, but if Pfau is saying that a portfolio with 75% bonds might need a 2.8% SWR to survive 40+ years, he wouldn't actually be saying anything new since ERN ran the numbers on the actual data! The model used at ERN is much more problematic than the one us...
by Scott S
Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau
Replies: 252
Views: 13832

Re: Another 2.8% SWR Article Quoting Wade Pfau

So yeah, it's very reasonable to question Pfau's models. It's reasonable to wonder if he's missing some variables. I don't think he's missing any variables. More like he adds variables like fund fees and longer timeframes, and then applies Monte Carlo simulations to the existing data to try to figu...
by Scott S
Sun Apr 11, 2021 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?
Replies: 88
Views: 30583

Re: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?

Reading the underlying comment made me wonder what would happen to Tesla if, for forbid, Elon Musk had a major health issue and couldn’t do the job anymore. It seems like the sentiment for Tesla largely hinges on him as a visionary. My guess is the stock would tank. If Tesla has its own Tim Cook wa...
by Scott S
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone contemplating OLY (One Less Year)?
Replies: 52
Views: 4759

Re: Anyone contemplating OLY (One Less Year)?

I was think to retire in a few years, then next, and probably this year. A lot of things can happen in the next few months. Overseas travel is something that is uncertain. I might just walk out of my office and never return, although we are obligated to give 6 month notice. What happens if you don'...
by Scott S
Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Protect savings from imminent inflation?
Replies: 29
Views: 2961

Re: Protect savings from imminent inflation?

Another, IMO underappreciated, way to hedge inflation is to pre-purchase things you can/will actually use in your own life. A few examples.... Owning a home locks in future residence expense. Having food etc. reserves if you have the space. Doing needed repairs around the home now before the cost t...
by Scott S
Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14581
Views: 1118758

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

lostdog wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:53 pmI usually go earlier in the day. The late days I procrastinate and then the melt up days happen. :twisted:
Please, keep doing the latter. For all our sakes! :sharebeer
by Scott S
Fri Apr 09, 2021 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2019 Porsche Macan Excessive Tire Noise: Options?
Replies: 54
Views: 3656

Re: 2019 Porsche Macan Excessive Tire Noise: Options?

Van wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:45 pm Nope, no check of alignment or wheel balance.
Weird -- I would have put money on one of those being the cause. Hopefully your Porsche dealership can figure it out!
by Scott S
Fri Apr 09, 2021 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?
Replies: 238
Views: 47044

Re: who here is tempted to pullback on stocks?

En lieu of reducing equity exposure, we'll be adding more negatively correlated hedging on the non-equity side. Reducing equity exposure isn't the only defeasance. I've been coming around to the same idea over the last year or so. 100% stocks is sexy in the best-case scenario, but shoring up our po...
by Scott S
Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Definition of one more year (OMY).
Replies: 41
Views: 3757

Re: Definition of one more year (OMY).

My father is 60 and has saved up a few million. He could retire tomorrow and be fine. But he just joined the executive team of a startup and has options that could be worth $50M upon an IPO in 2-3 years. So he works. You tell me, is that OMY? Would he have retired if it weren't for this new opportu...
by Scott S
Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2019 Porsche Macan Excessive Tire Noise: Options?
Replies: 54
Views: 3656

Re: 2019 Porsche Macan Excessive Tire Noise: Options?

Yesterday I took my car to Creamery Tire, a large, well established tire shop in the area that has a very good reputation. Two folks, one a tire guy and one a mechanic, looked at and felt the tires. They both noted some uneven wear and a couple of choppy areas on 2 of the tires. At that point, both...
by Scott S
Fri Apr 09, 2021 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Definition of one more year (OMY).
Replies: 41
Views: 3757

Re: Definition of one more year (OMY).

My father is 60 and has saved up a few million. He could retire tomorrow and be fine. But he just joined the executive team of a startup and has options that could be worth $50M upon an IPO in 2-3 years. So he works. You tell me, is that OMY? Would he have retired if it weren't for this new opportu...
by Scott S
Thu Apr 08, 2021 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 101
Views: 8595

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

I'm starting to nibble at GLDM. I like how even a small percentage of "paper gold" helps to smooth out portfolio volatility, even after the 1970s. Every so often, it's the better counterweight to stocks than long-term Treasuries. I doubt I'll go higher than 5-10%, though.
by Scott S
Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?
Replies: 88
Views: 30583

Re: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?

His AA listed in the op is "1. My AA: 40% US, 30% Int'l, 30% Bonds 2. All in low cost index funds." So it doesn't look like they made it there yet with this AA but according to 'Stoptothink' above they are now at 10m due to an investment in Tesla. So I would say congrats are still in orde...
by Scott S
Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?
Replies: 88
Views: 30583

Re: How long to turn 1 million to 2 millions for you?

Candor wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 3:51 pm Wonder if the op has made their 2m yet. I'm too lazy to do the math.
No need to do any math! PortfolioVisualizer says that someone who put $1,000,000 into Total Stock Market on Aug 1, 2016 would have just crossed the $2,000,000 mark at the end of last month:

Congratulations, OP! :moneybag
by Scott S
Wed Apr 07, 2021 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board
Replies: 281
Views: 20146

Re: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board

Sorry, I value my life over money. The difference in safety in a crash between a similar new and 10-15 year old vehicle is massive. Let's not get into a false sense of security about that. Today's car will be a "death trap" compared to a new car another 10-15 years from now. ;) It is a bi...
by Scott S
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 14581
Views: 1118758

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I have a confession to make: I panicked yesterday because of these all time highs. Liquidated my entire 401k, including my “fun money” positions, and put it all back into Wellesley, which is where it all was until about 9 months ago. Now I don’t need to watch it gyrate. That might have been a sensi...
by Scott S
Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board
Replies: 281
Views: 20146

Re: The $2000-$4000 Car :) This made me wealthy so jump on board

burritoLover wrote: Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:13 amSorry, I value my life over money. The difference in safety in a crash between a similar new and 10-15 year old vehicle is massive.
Let's not get into a false sense of security about that. Today's car will be a "death trap" compared to a new car another 10-15 years from now. ;)
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baseball cards - worth anything?
Replies: 49
Views: 6337

Re: Baseball cards - worth anything?

In related news, I see that Topps is going public: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/topps ... 2021-04-06
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?
Replies: 48
Views: 4687

Re: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?

Desx wrote: Tue Apr 06, 2021 8:11 pmOr does it make more sense to give say 10-20% and perhaps balance into it getting up to 40% as the debt interest becomes more attractive. This isn't timing.
Waiting because you assume it will become more attractive isn't timing? :oops:
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?
Replies: 48
Views: 4687

Re: shouldn't the feds position on interest rates suggest that we 'time' the bond market?

Based on the time I've been a member here, the Bogleheads plan for timing the bond market seems to be to go to cash or short-term bonds and then never be able to move from there. :P
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time to dial back 529 plans?
Replies: 10
Views: 1854

Re: Time to dial back 529 plans?

I use a target date fund in my toddler's 529, and picked one that will arrive at about 50/50 when he goes off to college. That keeps it simple and puts the money to work for a while. :beer
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stepping back in career when wife is doing well?
Replies: 54
Views: 5031

Re: Stepping back in career when wife is doing well?

Thanks everyone! I spoke to my management about quitting. They promised a much flexible schedule and then bumped up my stocks by another $100k for next couple of years (total compensation $650k/year now for me). I didn’t ask for the bump but the reviews were just around the corner. Anyway, will see...
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?
Replies: 132
Views: 12706

Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

When I mouse over my place on the map, the estimate is $20k over what we paid, but when I click on it, the detail view re-adjusts to about what we paid. Same thing happens with nearby houses -- the price quickly drops several thousand between the map view and detail view. Is this some plot to make ...
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 2:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9351

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Our 31-year-old OP is already a millionaire, and would be all of 32 by the time he completed a 12-month DCA of the cash. I guess since he's unlikely to be harmed long-term by either strategy, I'll bow out, too. :D
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9351

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

Because investors are less interested in how much their portfolio value oscillates over time and more interested in how much their return over a given time span could be, since they generally invest with a target in mind and not just because. That argues for investing the money productively sooner ...
by Scott S
Tue Apr 06, 2021 1:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9351

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

This is how I see it. And if a person is struggling to move their portfolio from 40/60 back to 90/10, that tells me a lot about their comfort level with their chosen AA. Perhaps it's too aggressive. Meanwhile, if someone dumped $500,000 into my lap, I could not get it invested per my AA fast enough...
by Scott S
Mon Apr 05, 2021 10:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to shift to more conservative AA
Replies: 12
Views: 1167

Re: How to shift to more conservative AA

Today was a good day to do it. :beer
by Scott S
Mon Apr 05, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?
Replies: 132
Views: 12706

Re: Anyone else see drastic increase in Zillow value today?

When I mouse over my place on the map, the estimate is $20k over what we paid, but when I click on it, the detail view re-adjusts to about what we paid. Same thing happens with nearby houses -- the price quickly drops several thousand between the map view and detail view. Is this some plot to make a...
by Scott S
Mon Apr 05, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research/Studies on Reblancing Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 2073

Re: Research/Studies on Reblancing Portfolio

The Bogleheads Wiki has a good page, for starters: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing
by Scott S
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?
Replies: 120
Views: 9351

Re: Large sum -- to DCA or not to DCA?

The endless arguments about Lump Sum vs. DCA are not framing the issue properly. You just added $500k to your portfolio. Right now it is in cash. Your AA is not the 90/10 you say you want, and what you had, but it is now 40/60 and the real issue is how do you propose to rebalance. This is how I see...
by Scott S
Mon Apr 05, 2021 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 214
Views: 17803

Re: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?

Thanks Watchnerd! I was thinking the former ( generating enough return to beat inflation). Yes, valuation contractions are a concern. Somebody has mentioned high (but not hyper) inflation in the 70s. How did US stocks do comparing to other assets? The Death of Equities EDIT: Dangit, watchnerd beat ...
by Scott S
Sun Apr 04, 2021 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 1091
Views: 90349

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Corsair wrote: Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:12 pm“Worst Q1 return for 30-year Treasury since 1919, worst Q1 for IG bonds since 1980, worst Q1 for gold since 1982: BOA”

Ouch :x
Did you mean to post that in the Bonds in free fall thread? :mrgreen:
by Scott S
Sat Apr 03, 2021 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: WFH Light a "FIRE" in anyone else?
Replies: 20
Views: 3144

Re: WFH Light a "FIRE" in anyone else?

WFH has definitely given us a taste of the retired life, in that my wife and I see each other a lot more throughout the day and have more flexibility to run errands or do fun things when we don't have a meeting scheduled. :) I agree with the above that it often takes me a few more hours of "wal...
by Scott S
Fri Apr 02, 2021 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Poll - How much is enough / what's your number?
Replies: 86
Views: 13685

Re: Poll - How much is enough / what's your number?

We're thinking $1.5-2 million, but it'll depend on whether we've paid off the house first.
by Scott S
Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lower bond percentage after you won the game?
Replies: 57
Views: 6189

Re: Lower bond percentage after you won the game?

Sounds like a plan to me. If you step back and look at those AAs, 60/40 and 71/29 are both pretty sensible ratios for long-term investing. (And if stocks were to drop 1/3 on the day you retire, you'd be at 50/50 and $4 million, which I would still feel pretty comfortable about.) It's only if you pro...
by Scott S
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative correlation is a myth today!
Replies: 22
Views: 2308

Re: Negative correlation is a myth today!

Everything that I keep an eye on was up today. Guess I need to be better diversified. :mrgreen:
by Scott S
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What’s the correct diversification for high inflation?
Replies: 214
Views: 17803

Re: What’s the correct diversification for hyperinflation?

I wouldn't use the absolute phraseology 'the government is hiding inflation' but I would say they are pretty indisputably manipulating it. Now, if you want to say they are doing so responsibly and in good faith, then that is probably where the debate would be most appropriate. What is factual is th...
by Scott S
Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you trust the current value of your portfolio?
Replies: 130
Views: 9193

Re: Do you trust the current value of your portfolio?

I have a number for my retirement. However, the number was reached far faster than I expected. So I am seriously considering to retire at the end of this year or next year (dependent upon my son's employment status). When I read around (on similar forums), it seems that everyone's portfolio grows a...
by Scott S
Thu Apr 01, 2021 2:09 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Congratulation HomerJ!!! [on your pending retirement]
Replies: 22
Views: 3512

Re: Congratulation HomerJ!!!

Miriam2 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 12:55 pmAlthough wait . . . today IS April 1st - do you think it's possible . . ??
A coworker announced his retirement in a group chat today.

He wasn't serious. :D
by Scott S
Thu Apr 01, 2021 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: short term strategy for a lot of cash
Replies: 29
Views: 3633

Re: short term strategy for a lot of cash

Hypothetical situation: couple in mid 50s, starting early retirement current portfolio of 3.5M, 60/40 AA annual expenses (excluding health insurance and rent): $40K currently renting, due to sale of home So, all is good for retirement according to firecalc, etc. The complications: $1.4M in cash (no...
by Scott S
Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100k cash / 1 million investments
Replies: 12
Views: 2321

Re: 100k cash / 1 million investments

It sounds like you could cash flow the car within a few months. As such, I would invest that part, maintaining the emergency fund where it is. How much of your annual savings go to taxable? Seems like you could invest the car money now and then cash flow the car when you need to? +1, cash-flow the ...