Search found 1958 matches

by Tamalak
Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on Dave Ramsey's Investments
Replies: 20
Views: 1513

Re: Thoughts on Dave Ramsey's Investments

If your net worth is above 0, Ramsey has 0 to offer you.
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do YOU integrate cognitive decline with investment policy?
Replies: 25
Views: 1800

Re: How do YOU integrate cognitive decline with investment policy?

If I deteriorate to the point where I can't handle basic concepts of money, there won't be enough of "me" left to be worth worrying about.
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 27, 2024 1:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" Is Out!
Replies: 30
Views: 7291

Re: Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow" Is Out!

Of note, Kahneman hated Kahneman's book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" :D

Reminds me of the forward to my copy of Tommyknockers. "This is the worst book I ever wrote - if you haven't already paid for it, you might want to put it back"
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 27, 2024 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain
Replies: 197
Views: 19593

Re: Boeing (BA) stock: at some point it has to be a bargain

BA is being absolutely shredded in the news and is still up 50% from OP's post. Reinforcement of the idea that a bad company is not always a bad investment! Grats on OP for calling the bottom :sharebeer
by Tamalak
Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate
Replies: 42
Views: 3095

Re: Some reasons to help me avoid the US/exUS debate

You can't avoid the debate. Your investments must have an international % (from 0 to 100) and that % reflects your conclusions in the debate. I think it's less important to find the "correct" answer than it is to find an answer you're satisfied enough on that you can hold through periods of underperformance.

Taking the "compromise" between the two biggest factions (market cappers versus all-USers) may seem reasonable, but what if ex-US starts to outperform year after year, with your portfolio only holding a measly 20%? Will you stay the course or will you fret, tinker, performance chase? If the answer is stay the course, then 80/20 is a good answer for you.
by Tamalak
Mon Mar 25, 2024 7:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It is really that simple to do it the Bogleheads way?
Replies: 87
Views: 8175

Re: It is really that simple to do it the Bogleheads way?

Cyath wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2024 4:58 am So is investing really as easy as buying and holding some recommended index funds? (I have a three-fund portfolio in mind)
The projected returns are 8-9% PA, which is better than what my FA gives me, and does not seem unreasonable given Vanguard's performance.
I can affirm that it is that simple. I have never spoken to any financial advisor and I know very little about what drives the market. I invested in VTI and VXUS less than a decade ago and annualized returns have been 10%. Poof. I've made hundreds of thousands on my money which would otherwise be rotting away to inflation.
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 20, 2024 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reset 4% withdrawal floor if portfolio increases in value?
Replies: 93
Views: 8019

Re: Reset 4% withdrawal floor if portfolio increases in value?

I feel like part of what makes the 4% WR so solid is that even if there are future periods where it fails, your retirement timing would have to be dreadful - you'd have to retire right "at the peak" before an L shaped crash.

By resetting the floor, you are removing that advantage - you are essentially retiring at EVERY peak, and so if any of them lead to a failure, your plan will fail.

So this certainly increases the risk - although if you're comfortable with a bit more risk of failure in exchange for reducing the risk of dying with unspent riches, it's hardly a crazy idea.
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 19, 2024 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906271

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

I don't invest in VXUS because I think it's likely to outperform.. I invest in it because I don't know what's going to outperform.
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 19, 2024 7:37 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Courage to Invest in Equities
Replies: 57
Views: 4518

Re: Courage to Invest in Equities

1. I diversify internationally. That hasn't done any good as far as actual returns, but it has kept me from fretting about a valuation bubble. The WORLD P/E is on the high side, but sane.

2. Inflation has traditionally been a troublemaker. It's been tame for 40 years which has spoiled us, but real returns were just fine before then.

3. It's been a fad lately to complain about the economy, even moreso than usual. I keep seeing articles that say "yeah, the numbers are good, but people are unhappy". They're unhappy because everyone is telling them they should be.
by Tamalak
Mon Mar 18, 2024 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?
Replies: 169
Views: 12556

Re: Can I retire with $1.75M at age 43?

OP it can be argued whether or not you should "retire", but you are 100% in a position to NEVER do something you hate for money. I would walk away from that job immediately, take a load off, and think about what I want to do with my life. That may involve income and it may not. But you have earned the right to make some comfortable choices at your own pace and I suggest you start now!
by Tamalak
Fri Mar 15, 2024 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 88
Views: 10566

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

The duration of your retirement looks a tad optimistic. 75+50=125. However, planning for the worst (!) scenario is a basic risk management method. Agreed about being a tad optimistic, but 120-125 is definitely a possibility. I maintain a 50-66% savings rate and my motivation for this is a desire to improve the odds that I'll be able to maintain consistent access to effective longevity interventions in the future. I said "maintain access" instead of "afford" as it's extremely hard to predict which countries (or states or metro areas or...) will offer the best balance of cost / access or strike the best regulatory balance ensuring safety / efficacy without going so far as to delay / restrict access. Wow, someone's finally...
by Tamalak
Thu Mar 14, 2024 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Happy Pi Day! (And what pie?)
Replies: 54
Views: 4645

Re: Happy Pi Day! (And what pie?)

In lieu of pie I'm going to have 3.141 glasses of whiskey
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 12, 2024 5:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total International Bond Index Fund?
Replies: 6
Views: 976

Re: Total International Bond Index Fund?

I own BNDW for 100% of my bond allocation, and I'm holding onto it just in case Bill Bernstein is wrong, but he makes a persuasive case that international diversification in bonds is pointless: ETF.com: One thing that puzzled me is that among your recommendations, I don’t see an international bond fund as part of the allocation—even one that’s currency-hedged. Why? Bernstein: Well, first, there is absolutely no way any rational investor would want an unhedged international bond fund in their portfolio for a very simple reason: Your bonds are your “safe” assets. They are what you are defeasing your retirement with; they are what enables you to sleep at night; they are your liquidity for when you lose your job or for when you want to buy chea...
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 12, 2024 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 88
Views: 10566

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

It's fundamentally unpleasant to have a plan that requires you to die to be successful.
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34
Replies: 80
Views: 8325

Re: Financial Advisor says my portfolio is akin to a retiree at age 34

You are already crushing it both from a net worth standpoint and a knowledge standpoint. A financial advisor has even less to offer you than they would most people.

Your AA is more conservative than Vanguard would prefer for your age (90/10) but not egregiously so and certainly nothing like a retiree's 50/50
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?
Replies: 88
Views: 10566

Re: Holding 100% stocks after FI best option for longer time horizons?

The duration of your retirement looks a tad optimistic. 75+50=125. However, planning for the worst (!) scenario is a basic risk management method. Agreed about being a tad optimistic, but 120-125 is definitely a possibility. I maintain a 50-66% savings rate and my motivation for this is a desire to improve the odds that I'll be able to maintain consistent access to effective longevity interventions in the future. I said "maintain access" instead of "afford" as it's extremely hard to predict which countries (or states or metro areas or...) will offer the best balance of cost / access or strike the best regulatory balance ensuring safety / efficacy without going so far as to delay / restrict access. Wow, someone's finally...
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 12, 2024 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should one invest in gold? If so, how and how much?
Replies: 210
Views: 23570

Re: Should one invest in gold? If so, how and how much?

seajay wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 3:32 am
Tamalak wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:32 pm I don't like it. It doesn't produce anything. You can use it TO produce something - as a component in a machine - but as long as I own the gold, that's not gonna happen.

If it has a price tag, it has a purpose. If I don't intend to carry out that purpose, I have no business buying it.
Thanks for sharing. Unusual pastime to go around boards posting ones dislikes. I don't like bonds, but I don't post my dislike on boards that discuss bonds.
Is it an unusual pastime to literally answer the question in the OP's title? If I wasn't sure whether one should invest in bonds or not, I would want those on both sides to answer me.
by Tamalak
Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should one invest in gold? If so, how and how much?
Replies: 210
Views: 23570

Re: Should one invest in gold? If so, how and how much?

I don't like it. It doesn't produce anything. You can use it TO produce something - as a component in a machine - but as long as I own the gold, that's not gonna happen.

If it has a price tag, it has a purpose. If I don't intend to carry out that purpose, I have no business buying it.
by Tamalak
Thu Mar 07, 2024 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it
Replies: 80
Views: 5752

Re: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it

one_speed wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 1:04 pm
happyisland wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 6:06 am Since your BIL is a conspiratorial thinker you could argue that public equities is where most of our plutocrats hold most of their wealth and that you'd be crazy not to do what they're doing, since they are the ones pulling the strings.
That actually is my rationale!
Same.. if you can't afford the limousine yourself, then stow away in the trunk!
by Tamalak
Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it
Replies: 80
Views: 5752

Re: Argument against people that say stock market is rigged, so don’t invest in it

Ask him which way is it rigged? If it's rigged to go up, all the more reason to invest. If it's rigged to go down, the rigging isn't doing a very good job :D
by Tamalak
Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blackout shades for bedroom
Replies: 30
Views: 2239

Re: Blackout shades for bedroom

When I was making a darkroom I used black velvet fabric around the door on both sides to eliminate the light coming in completely. The test for that is to stand in the room in the daytime, letting your eyes adjust for at least 10 minutes, you shouldn't be able to see any light at all. Two overlapping layers of a dark opaque fabric are usually enough to achieve this. I can't relate to wanting a completely dark room to sleep in, I do the opposite so I can wake up with natural morning light. It strikes me that just getting acclimated to having a little light in the room may be the easiest solution, if possible. If you find it hard to go to sleep or stay asleep it can be related to stress or your level of physical activity, caffeine or diet. I...
by Tamalak
Thu Mar 07, 2024 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Blackout shades for bedroom
Replies: 30
Views: 2239

Re: Blackout shades for bedroom

Quite a few people mentioned, on another thread, that blackout shades have improved their quality of life. I would appreciate any info for what types/brands of shades you like. Are these items that can be purchased from Amazon or Home Depot, etc., or are they sourced and installed locally by a specialty shop? We have blackout curtains now that keep light out but quite a bit of light still comes in on the perimeter of these. Hoping for something that pretty much blocks all light from coming into the room. Thanks for any help you can give! This question is the reason it took me so long to install blackout shades. I am NOT handy (I drilled about 30 holes in the wall trying to install curtains at my last place) and I don't like having people i...
by Tamalak
Thu Mar 07, 2024 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BND only in retirement account?
Replies: 17
Views: 2870

Re: BND only in retirement account?

LaramieWind wrote: Thu Mar 07, 2024 6:22 am
Tamalak wrote: Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:14 pm Bonds are more tax-efficient in a retirement account, but for the most part bonds' investment horizon is shorter than stocks, and you'd want longer term investment horizon assets in retirement.. so I've always felt there was no good place to put bonds :confused
Aren't intermediate term, and short term for that matter preferred over long term bonds in retirement?
If they are, that makes no sense to me. If it's 20 years until I'm going to start pulling from retirement funds, I'm going to want around a 20 year horizon for the investments in them!
by Tamalak
Thu Mar 07, 2024 7:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are some of the things that improved YOUR quality of life?
Replies: 254
Views: 42501

Re: What are some of the things that improved YOUR quality of life?

InvestingGeek wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:00 pm
Tamalak wrote: Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:12 pm Not sure how many times "blackout curtains" have been mentioned, but here's another well earned mention. Kicking myself for not doing this a decade ago!

On the same vein, a nice bed, nice mattress, nice pillow, and an advanced, gentle alarm clock (gives off only a dawn light at first, then gentle birds singing 30 minutes later, then a traditional alarm 30 minutes after that). You spend a third of your life sleeping.. it's a no brainer to invest strongly in it.
Which clock is this?
ANTDALIS sunrise alarm clock.. go to amazon.com/dp/B09YPNMWQ1
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 311
Views: 29871

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

So an AI superintelligence will be able to form new insights from existing scientific data, like another Einstein. That will be super exciting and freak out scientists. But then it will hit a wall, and be limited by new data. Kinda like how LLMs, when they were finally fed the entire internet of data (at the cost of billions of $ of compute) gave us ChatGPTx. But now future breakthroughs will require MORE DATA. Where is that going to come from? Probably some combination of synthetic data, simulations and reward functions. Consider how Deep Mind tackled chess. They simply taught the AI the basic rules of chess and let it play millions of games against an adversarial AI. The reward function was a checkmate. Fast forward two days, and the AI ...
by Tamalak
Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Maximum risk tolerance
Replies: 45
Views: 4006

Re: Maximum risk tolerance

Sorry, I lost track of this post. "If the plan is contribute to stocks until I reach $300k then only contribute to safe assets forevermore, then see what the market has done to my $300k when I reach retirement, then that's something I haven't considered." Yes this exactly. While accumulating, accumulate $300k then contribute nothing else to stocks. Keep accumulating but only into bonds, cash, cash equivalents etc. Interesting because I considered the reverse idea. You would invest not according to AA but to investment horizon. That is, if a batch you were investing would need to be withdrawn within 3 years you invest in BND. If within 10 years you invest in VT. If within 20+ years you invest in some leveraged asset, etc. So the l...
by Tamalak
Tue Mar 05, 2024 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are some of the things that improved YOUR quality of life?
Replies: 254
Views: 42501

Re: What are some of the things that improved YOUR quality of life?

Not sure how many times "blackout curtains" have been mentioned, but here's another well earned mention. Kicking myself for not doing this a decade ago!

On the same vein, a nice bed, nice mattress, nice pillow, and an advanced, gentle alarm clock (gives off only a dawn light at first, then gentle birds singing 30 minutes later, then a traditional alarm 30 minutes after that). You spend a third of your life sleeping.. it's a no brainer to invest strongly in it.
by Tamalak
Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Honestly Confused about VTI, VTSAX & SPY
Replies: 7
Views: 1044

Re: Honestly Confused about VTI, VTSAX & SPY

What a horrible chart. As the previous poster said, VTI only begins in 2001. If your horse is just as fast as mine but mine gets a headstart, who wins?

Use portfolio visualizer instead for this stuff. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... rGLKrhLsIL
by Tamalak
Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How big (if at all) of a mistake would it be for me to go VT instead of VTI/VXUS in taxable?
Replies: 67
Views: 5710

Re: Strongly regretting my decision to separate into VTI/VXUS in taxable account instead of VT, unsure how to best proce

[...] Now I know people might say I'm making a big deal out of nothing and that the exact percentages don't really matter as long as it's close enough. But this is not really a satisfactory response to me. [...] This whole thing looks like a medical question then because it is all between your two ears. Also I don't think there is any suggestion that anybody can give for what ails you. Understood, but then what is the point of splitting into VTI/VXUS for the foreign tax credit? You're telling me that outweighs this tracking error? I have a hard time believing that. There is literally over a $50k difference already between how two of these approaches would have me allocate into the ETFs. The tracking error can be in either direction (either...
by Tamalak
Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How big (if at all) of a mistake would it be for me to go VT instead of VTI/VXUS in taxable?
Replies: 67
Views: 5710

Re: Strongly regretting my decision to separate into VTI/VXUS in taxable account instead of VT, unsure how to best proce

[...] Now I know people might say I'm making a big deal out of nothing and that the exact percentages don't really matter as long as it's close enough. But this is not really a satisfactory response to me. [...] This whole thing looks like a medical question then because it is all between your two ears. Also I don't think there is any suggestion that anybody can give for what ails you. Understood, but then what is the point of splitting into VTI/VXUS for the foreign tax credit? You're telling me that outweighs this tracking error? I have a hard time believing that. There is literally over a $50k difference already between how two of these approaches would have me allocate into the ETFs. The tracking error can be in either direction (either...
by Tamalak
Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BND only in retirement account?
Replies: 17
Views: 2870

Re: BND only in retirement account?

Bonds are more tax-efficient in a retirement account, but for the most part bonds' investment horizon is shorter than stocks, and you'd want longer term investment horizon assets in retirement.. so I've always felt there was no good place to put bonds :confused
by Tamalak
Wed Feb 28, 2024 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trillion Dollar equation [Black-Scholes/Merton equation]
Replies: 13
Views: 2368

Re: Trillion Dollar equation

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Feb 28, 2024 2:31 pm It could be worse, the thread title could be "Everybody read this thread!"
Well it worked on me 8-)
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 27, 2024 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Divorce and co mingling asset question
Replies: 49
Views: 6983

Re: Divorce and co mingling asset question

popoki wrote: Tue Feb 27, 2024 11:32 am There was another recent post here where some people kept insisting that the OP should commingle their inheritance because it's easier to manage, because the marriage was long and stable, etc...

Wrong answer.

viewtopic.php?p=7733128#p7733128
Yep. When the question is "should I take precautions?" the answer is "of course not".

When the question is "I'm divorcing, am I screwed?" the answer is "you should have taken precautions".

Not just this board. Everywhere. Every time.
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 27, 2024 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!
Replies: 26
Views: 4775

Re: 30 yr TIPS = 2.2% real!

- The longest TIPS is 30 years. If you retire early, you need some plan for years 31 and later. - Longevity risk: even if you retire at 65, if you put all your money in a 30 year TIPS ladder, what happens if you live longer than 95? I was going to make a joke about buying 100 year bonds as soon as I was born, then I found this story on Google: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-buyers-battered-as-austrias-100-year-note-shows-danger-of-duration-risk-c4f137a5 Holy duration risk Batman! "When Austria sold a fresh batch of 100-year bonds in the summer of 2020, the 0.85% coupon was deemed so juicy that Vienna received some €16 billion of orders." No matter how many times I read that I can't make sense of it. Buy a 100 year bond at...
by Tamalak
Mon Feb 26, 2024 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?
Replies: 311
Views: 29871

Re: Dot.Com Era/AI Era?

AI has high expectations right now and could easily disappoint them. But I don't think this compares to the dot com bubble. There was an astonishing (in hindsight) amount of magical thinking then. That the internet would somehow suspend the basic laws of economics. That we would get everything for free because our personal data is so valuable. That companies with no net positive earnings and no plans to ever have them were viable just because they had a website.

When it comes to AI, investors are constantly questioning what use cases AI has and how much new earnings they could drive. They could be wrong, but they're actually putting in a college try this time instead of treating the technology like it's magic.
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.
Replies: 62
Views: 7374

Re: Diversification means always having to say you’re sorry.

With 40% of my net worth in international stocks, I've said sorry every day for 8 years :twisted:
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 23, 2024 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has passive investing broken the market?
Replies: 136
Views: 16725

Re: Has passive investing broken the market?

A mindless market activity that distorts the correct price of something would be a dream to active investors. They MAKE THEIR MONEY from correcting "wrong" prices. So even if passive investors were causing, say, bubbles or price depressions, all it would be is a feast for the likes of Michael Green. If he believed what he was saying, he would be celebrating. But he doesn't, because his real problem is that "strategists" like him are being exposed as useless.
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 22, 2024 10:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VT for a new Boglehead
Replies: 4
Views: 766

Re: VT for a new boglhead

90VT/10BND is almost exactly what I've held since 2015 and I have no regrets. Certainly VTI has outperformed VT, but Microsoft has outperformed VTI and bitcoin has outperformed Microsoft. I do not kick myself for not picking the right lottery ticket. I believe the EMH strives to equalize the risk adjusted return of these assets and I want to ride the coattails of its hard work. I said ALMOST exactly because instead of holding VT, I hold VTI and VXUS at the same capitalization as VT. That saves a few hundred dollars per million in ER per year, and I believe has some kind of advantage in foreign tax credit handling over VT that saves a couple more hundred. VT is still a fine choice, but I like having the components separated like that. You ma...
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FIRE vs Loving your work
Replies: 101
Views: 8781

Re: FIRE vs Loving your work

Think about what you like to do, be it video games, golfing, tourism, walking, reading. These things require expenditure of effort, but we do them anyway even without pay, because we find them innately rewarding. That's what working is like for those lucky and wise enough to find a job they love (I'm not one of them and I plan to FIRE by 45)
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market go down after some bad news?
Replies: 35
Views: 3237

Re: Why does the stock market go down after some bad news?

If the investment horizon of a stock is ~20 years, then news that reduces earnings growth by just 0.1% annualized will crumble the stock by 2%. Small changes compounded turn into large changes, and stocks are priced to try to "claw" future changes into the present.

It's not irrational for large swings to happen around small news.
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone have Treasury Direct. Looks to be my fault! Minor link account goof up.
Replies: 5
Views: 1206

Re: Anyone have Treasury Direct [mess up] your account? Lose $1000!

This is why, as attractive as ibonds are in theory, I will never touch them. Violation of KISS
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 16, 2024 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: The Surprising Return of Interest
Replies: 68
Views: 8962

Re: The Surprising Return of Interest

Cash has been useless for 14 years. We're all having to adjust to the new reality of 5% risk free rate!
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 15, 2024 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any studies to refute dividend yield & chill?
Replies: 161
Views: 12301

Re: Any studies to refute dividend yield & chill?

Dividends open up a rabbit's hole for me. On one hand, if a company pays no dividends ever, how does their stock have any value? On the other hand, as many here mentioned, you can simulate a dividend by selling x% of shares. But even if you do that, a company that never pays a dividend still shouldn't have value - selling just shuffles around who owns the stock. It doesn't make the stock produce anything.
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 13, 2024 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How big (if at all) of a mistake would it be for me to go VT instead of VTI/VXUS in taxable?
Replies: 67
Views: 5710

Re: How big (if at all) of a mistake would it be for me to go VT instead of VTI/VXUS in taxable?

I have VTI and VXUS in taxable. There is NO ISSUE with rebalancing. For the most part they rebalance themselves since cap weight tends to shift in the same direction as performance. And then there is the ~2% dividend from VTI and ~4% dividend from VXUS, along with new contributions. You never have to sell shares to rebalance.

VT has a higher total ER than VTI+VXUS and loses the foreign tax credit. Not a huge mistake, but a mistake.
by Tamalak
Sun Feb 11, 2024 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market.... yes, but...
Replies: 19
Views: 3681

Re: Bull market.... yes, but...

Cape ratio is over 30. Even forward P/E is over 20. I'm not going to conclude the market is overvalued, but it's a fact that the domestic market, at least, is HIGHLY valued compared to history. US companies will have to have very strong earnings growth to live up to expectations.
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you buy a mattress?
Replies: 47
Views: 3825

Re: How do you buy a mattress?

I had a tough time buying one too. You only really know when you try to sleep on one. I bought one that I thought was right, but it was too hot. So I returned it, asked for advice, took a second shot, and this mattress works great.

Be mentally prepared for it to be trial and error and to make returns. You spend a third of your life on your mattress - it is something worth investing time, effort and money into.
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 09, 2024 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't asset allocations also be passively managed by following the markets?
Replies: 51
Views: 3619

Re: Why can't asset allocations also be passively managed by following the markets?

To repost from another topic - I expect the EMH to equalize the RISK-ADJUSTED returns of stocks and bonds. However, different temperaments and different scenarios call for different levels of risk. To buy the entire "investible" market at-cap is not just to declare that the market has priced these assets fairly (I am prepared to declare that), but that I PERSONALLY have an "average" risk tolerance and investment horizon (I am not prepared to declare that). Therefore my distribution of investments should be different from market cap.
by Tamalak
Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New article casting doubt on index investing
Replies: 51
Views: 6623

Re: New article casting doubt on index investing

I just received a new article in my email inbox, highlighting the potential dangers of indexing. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion?cmpid=BBD020924_AUT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240209&utm_campaign=authers One sentence struck me in particular (Charles) Gave points out that the US stock market is now about 70% of world market capitalization, even though its economy is only 17.8% of global gross domestic product. Therefore, he says, the markets are implying that “over the next 20 years, less than 20% of the world economy will earn three times more profits than the remaining 70% or so,” or put differently, that US tech firms will be “entrenched global monopolies stretching into perpetuity.” Perhaps one can...
by Tamalak
Thu Feb 08, 2024 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE seems mostly useless
Replies: 208
Views: 12514

Re: Shiller PE seems mostly useless

That chart makes no sense to me. It implies the average return on stocks is 3.5% for the period mentioned. Even if it's real returns, that's way too low.
by Tamalak
Tue Feb 06, 2024 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5351
Views: 906271

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

I posted this in another thread but I think it's better discussed here: When I retired in 2007, Vanguard prepared a financial plan for me. They suggested allocating a portion of my stock portfolio to international stocks. I have 31% in VTIAX but it has performed poorly since its inception date in 2010. https://scontent.fphx1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/425853810_10231990376123110_9163040801136472929_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=3635dc&_nc_ohc=4FyET6-eyX4AX_Y-sny&_nc_ht=scontent.fphx1-1.fna&oh=00_AfC4iaNqk6X3XGTfHM9zbga3FfN42SpC5aV5--DcIYPhMQ&oe=65C73366 I keep hearing that the US stock market is overvalued and it might be a good time to invest overseas. But i've been hearing this for years and it never pans o...