Search found 82 matches

by young-ish
Mon May 16, 2022 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Financial 'things to do' for child turning 18 and going to college
Replies: 42
Views: 3892

Re: Financial 'things to do' for child turning 18 and going to college

All great ideas OP except I would skip the credit card. I've met very few teenagers who are responsible enough to take on debt. I would freeze the credit reports of teenagers. Personally I didn't have a credit card until I was 5 years into full-time year round work. I had no issues living debt free that entire time.

Overall, congratulations on planning for your child.
by young-ish
Mon May 16, 2022 12:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental real estate in inflationary times
Replies: 60
Views: 7719

Re: Rental real estate in inflationary times

Question, why would your diversification decline if you sold the SFH & bought equities? It would seem to me that a total stock market index fund would increase your diversification. No? Real estate is a completely different asset class than stocks. It’s not correlated to the stock market. It doesn’t behave like stocks. Direct rental ownership has tax characteristics that are very different from stocks. Real estate generates returns in four distinct ways, instead of two. And much more. Real estate is just as different from stocks as bonds and gold are. What are the four distinct ways? Cash flow from rents, cash flow from depreciation, debt paydown by rents, appreciation. Calculate your total asset increase less expenses. Over the last 8...
by young-ish
Mon May 16, 2022 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Buy I-Bonds? (Rate 9.62%)
Replies: 19
Views: 6703

Re: Should I Buy I-Bonds? (Rate 9.62%)

I Bonds are a great investment for a portion of your cash allocation. I guess the only reason I wouldn't buy them was if I needed a hedge for deflation. If that occurs you will have wished you bought LT Treasuries instead. But if your comparing I Bonds to cash then they are a fantastic buy today. If you need a hedge for deflation, I Bonds DO offer protection against DEflation as well as INflation. Since the composite rate can never go below 0%, the greater the rate of DEflation, the greater the REAL return would be on I Bonds. Great point Mel. Agreed that I Bonds offer some hedge against Deflation too but just that LT Treasuries will increase in value more than I Bonds if there is severe deflation. Of course LTT will lose big if there is s...
by young-ish
Sun May 08, 2022 10:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental real estate in inflationary times
Replies: 60
Views: 7719

Re: Rental real estate in inflationary times

slbnoob wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 6:28 pm
Cons of selling:
- Reduced diversification (selling RE, will likely buy equities over time)
Question, why would your diversification decline if you sold the SFH & bought equities? It would seem to me that a total stock market index fund would increase your diversification. No?
by young-ish
Sun May 08, 2022 10:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Buy I-Bonds? (Rate 9.62%)
Replies: 19
Views: 6703

Re: Should I Buy I-Bonds? (Rate 9.62%)

I Bonds are a great investment for a portion of your cash allocation. I guess the only reason I wouldn't buy them was if I needed a hedge for deflation. If that occurs you will have wished you bought LT Treasuries instead. But if your comparing I Bonds to cash then they are a fantastic buy today.
by young-ish
Sun May 08, 2022 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 621
Views: 73696

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I view EE bonds as a mixture of cash/LT Treasuries. They shouldn't be compared to stocks or commodities or real estate. They should be compared to cash & Treasury Bonds. The fact that they double in nominal value in 20 years makes them a compelling hold as a chunk of my cash & LT Bonds allocation.

If interest rates decline I will be happy to have bought EE Bonds. If rates increase slightly then it won't matter much either way. If interest rates increase dramatically then I will redeem them early & purchase the higher paying Treasury Bonds. The penalty for this is smaller than the loss on a 20 Year T Bond if rates rise significantly.

Am I missing something important here?
by young-ish
Thu May 05, 2022 12:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New 3 yr Treasury notes
Replies: 19
Views: 3084

Re: New 3 yr Treasury notes

TBillT wrote: Wed May 04, 2022 8:47 pm ...anyhow, looks good to me, I might buy some of these new issues too.

I was recently looking at the 2-3yr secondary market on Fido, and it seemed like they wanted $200k min purchase, which is too big for smaller IRA accounts.

Thanks to OP for brining to my attention, as there were no offerings yesterday when I looked at it.
You can definitely trade smaller quantities of Treasuries at Fido. You just won't get the best price which is usually for higher volume trades.
by young-ish
Tue May 03, 2022 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Please critique this bond portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 1677

Re: Please critique this bond portfolio

Looks pretty good. The only thing I would propose is to cut the TIPS holdings in half and allocate those funds to Treasury Bills/Notes <5 Years to Maturity.

I recall a number of authors (Swedroe for sure) pointing out that TIPS performed poorly relative to nominal bonds in The Great Recession. Maybe allocate some to iBonds as they are not subject to market swings.
by young-ish
Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why would I buy corporate bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3563

Re: Why would I buy corporate bonds?

David Swensen stated that Non-govt bonds are not an effective hedge against financial distress. Corporates have:
  • credit risk
  • illiquidity
  • callability
U.S. Treasury Bonds provide unique diversification against financial accidents & unanticipated deflation.
by young-ish
Sun Nov 07, 2021 5:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Young person should focus on what ?
Replies: 36
Views: 3736

Re: Young person should focus on what ?

chris319 wrote: Sat Nov 06, 2021 12:01 am
why would you want a monthly income that you have to pay capital gains tax on?
At age 30 I would focus on capital appreciation. You already have ample income. If in retirement you need to supplement social security or pension income, you can buy an annuity with the accumulated capital. You want a Single Premium Immediate Annuity (SPIA).
Yes to SPIA. At what age do you want this monthly income to begin?
by young-ish
Wed Oct 13, 2021 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starting over at 39; lost 400K… seeking advice
Replies: 74
Views: 20972

Re: Starting over at 39; lost 400K… seeking advice

Yes, I would pay off the debt prior to saving more for retirement.

Why have you chosen to work until 70? If you are really sure about that there is little need to save aggressively. A high savings rate leads to early retirement. You can actually enjoy your money now if you also enjoy your work :D
by young-ish
Fri Oct 08, 2021 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone Invest in Art, Collectables, Private Equity?
Replies: 9
Views: 1597

Re: Anyone Invest in Art, Collectables, Private Equity?

No. Art, collectibles, wine are unregulated markets. Experts in each area spend decades learning about these topics & then sell to novice buyers. "Investors" who are defrauded have a hard time recouping their losses. These markets are High risk & Low reward.
by young-ish
Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too much cash?
Replies: 15
Views: 3399

Re: Too much cash?

Do you anticipate spending all $27k in 3-7 years? If you are confident about that then yes you can take a little more risk. If you may need some of it prior to 3 years then I'd stick with Treasury Bills or I-Bonds. If more than 3 but less than 7 then I'd stick with I-Bonds.

Either way it's not going to make a large difference in outcome.
by young-ish
Mon Sep 06, 2021 5:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best non-savings acct place to park emergency fund
Replies: 16
Views: 1642

Re: Best non-savings acct place to park emergency fund

62nc wrote: Mon Sep 06, 2021 2:44 pm With the I bonds, what is the turnaround time on redemption? Instant, 2 days? I don't have any experience with the treasury direct site. I assume I'd just login to the website, choose to redeem a certain amount, and then they transfer the funds to my linked checking/savings account?
I've redeemed a few I Bonds over the years. 2-3 days from clicking redeem to funds hitting checking account. Great savings vehicle assuming you don't need the funds for 12 months.
by young-ish
Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Gift Money these days?
Replies: 29
Views: 2877

Re: How to Gift Money these days?

IBonds purchased with tax refund. Makes for a unique gift too & maybe gets the kid to think about saving. Otherwise paper checks work well.
by young-ish
Fri Aug 27, 2021 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When can i switch to one day a week of work and still meet my retirement goal? Also critique my approach.
Replies: 9
Views: 1305

Re: When can i switch to one day a week of work and still meet my retirement goal? Also critique my approach.

If you can buy a house for <10X the annual rent that would be a good move (assuming you like your current locale). How much are the property taxes on the $30k-$70k houses? I wonder if you could actually lower your future housing expense. Could you borrow at a competitive rate or would you pay cash for the house?

Sounds like you are doing great overall! Congratulations!
by young-ish
Mon Aug 09, 2021 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Muni's??
Replies: 21
Views: 2548

Re: Muni's??

Bonds are for safety. I stick with the lowest credit risk form of debtor's...Sovereign nations which can print their own money. Muni's can only borrow & tax their residents to pay back their debts.

Unless you are looking for tax advantages then no need to risk safe money with Muni's.
by young-ish
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch article about FIRE, 4% SWR and 30+ yr retirement
Replies: 91
Views: 10328

Re: MarketWatch article about FIRE, 4% SWR and 30+ yr retirement

It's pretty well established that 4% is not a good withdrawal rate for a retirement over 30 years anymore. For 30 years I think 3.25% makes sense, more if SS will be significant to you. For 60 years I think 3% is necessary if you are completely giving up all work forever and have zero flexibiltiy, or 3.25% if you can have some flexibility in your spending or pick up a side gig if the market drops in the first 15 years. How did you arrive at 3.25%? Is that a constant WD % or a starting with inflation adjusted increases? What asset allocation supports this WDR? There's some figures often posted around here with the 3.2%-ish perpetual rate. Something like this: https://portfoliocharts.com/2016/12/09/perpetual-withdrawal-rates-are-the-runway-t...
by young-ish
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch article about FIRE, 4% SWR and 30+ yr retirement
Replies: 91
Views: 10328

Re: MarketWatch article about FIRE, 4% SWR and 30+ yr retirement

This morning I read a provoking article about some standard Boglehead fare; SWR and 30+ year retirement timelines. According to a study conducted by Vanguard, the risk of running out of money increases greatly with a 4% SWR from a 30 to 50 year time period assuming lower future returns which the firm expects. Conceptually, I can relate to the thesis however, I was taken aback by the magnitude of failure rates that the study concluded for the 30, 40 & 50yr time periods According to the article, the chance of running out of money in 30 years is 18%. "At the 40-year horizon, the failure rate rises to 46%. And at the 50-year horizon, it is 64%." link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fire-movement-confronts-the-4-rule-116276...
by young-ish
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Really how many times your annual spending?
Replies: 110
Views: 15235

Re: Really how many times your annual spending?

That said, a thing that I can control is my spending. If my portfolio is down 10, 20, 30% in a prolonged recession over 1-5 years, I think I could cut some spending from my X to weather the storm. My X assumes my current lifestyle comfort and expenses which reflects a dual income household that allows for nice restaurants, hotel upgrades, whole foods groceries, etc. If one of us lost a job, we'd find ways to cut spending. That's no different in retirement. I suppose this is different if the X you use is necessary expenses and doesn't include leisure spending that could be cut Obviously more is better and safer. But life is short and I think many people postpone retirement and continue to work for fear of running out. If you've got 25X inve...
by young-ish
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Really how many times your annual spending?
Replies: 110
Views: 15235

Re: Really how many times your annual spending?

Is there a guide (for us newbies) of a SWR by age. Like 4% is for those retiring 65+, how about those retiring at 60, 55, 50, and so on? One safe withdrawal method is to spend your interest + dividends PLUS "RMD". RMD in this case is 1 part of the # of years you want your portfolio to last before reaching zero. If you want your portfolio to last 25 more years then RMD = 4%. 50 more years, RMD = 2%. 20 more years, RMD = 5%. Add this % to your investment income and that's a safe spending amount. Sure its safe. 25 years at 4% means 0 real growth. In any scenaruo, do we really think zero growth is at all possible over 25 years? Or zero real growth over 50 years? These calculations are way too conservative to me. I get that people wan...
by young-ish
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Really how many times your annual spending?
Replies: 110
Views: 15235

Re: Really how many times your annual spending?

Is there a guide (for us newbies) of a SWR by age. Like 4% is for those retiring 65+, how about those retiring at 60, 55, 50, and so on? One safe withdrawal method is to spend your interest + dividends PLUS "RMD". RMD in this case is 1 part of the # of years you want your portfolio to last before reaching zero. If you want your portfolio to last 25 more years then RMD = 4%. 50 more years, RMD = 2%. 20 more years, RMD = 5%. Add this % to your investment income and that's a safe spending amount. Withdrawing 10% of your portfolio balance each year is “safe” in the sense that you’d never run out of money. But just like with your method, you’d have widely fluctuating withdrawals from year-to-year and may not be able to cover your expe...
by young-ish
Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MarketWatch article about FIRE, 4% SWR and 30+ yr retirement
Replies: 91
Views: 10328

Re: MarketWatch article about FIRE, 4% SWR and 30+ yr retirement

This morning I read a provoking article about some standard Boglehead fare; SWR and 30+ year retirement timelines. According to a study conducted by Vanguard, the risk of running out of money increases greatly with a 4% SWR from a 30 to 50 year time period assuming lower future returns which the firm expects. Conceptually, I can relate to the thesis however, I was taken aback by the magnitude of failure rates that the study concluded for the 30, 40 & 50yr time periods According to the article, the chance of running out of money in 30 years is 18%. "At the 40-year horizon, the failure rate rises to 46%. And at the 50-year horizon, it is 64%." link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fire-movement-confronts-the-4-rule-116276...
by young-ish
Wed Jul 28, 2021 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Really how many times your annual spending?
Replies: 110
Views: 15235

Re: Really how many times your annual spending?

techiegirl wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:54 pm Is there a guide (for us newbies) of a SWR by age. Like 4% is for those retiring 65+, how about those retiring at 60, 55, 50, and so on?
One safe withdrawal method is to spend your interest + dividends PLUS "RMD". RMD in this case is 1 part of the # of years you want your portfolio to last before reaching zero. If you want your portfolio to last 25 more years then RMD = 4%. 50 more years, RMD = 2%. 20 more years, RMD = 5%.

Add this % to your investment income and that's a safe spending amount.
by young-ish
Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How close am I to early retirement?
Replies: 20
Views: 4065

Re: How close am I to early retirement?

You are in great shape! Yes, if you stay flexible you can absolutely retire today. You said you could cut your housing costs by half. That is a great plan if the SHTF.

Why are your health insurance premium estimates $15k/year? That seems very high to me. Managing AGI in early retirement for the ACA is well worth the effort. Live off cash you already paid taxes on + LT Cap Gains + qualified dividends. Surely the premiums can come way down.

Also, factor in the SS estimate seriously. Even conservative targets SS at 70% of stated benefit. If SS covers almost half of your spending then your portfolio only needs to cover half for those years after age 70.
by young-ish
Fri Jun 18, 2021 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocations for 23 year old
Replies: 25
Views: 2286

Re: Allocations for 23 year old

onedayretired wrote: Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:40 pm Thank you everyone, this is helpful. He is investing to retire early. I showed him some calculators when he got his first job of how investing consistently and early can change his life and he can pursue other dreams.
What age is "early" for him? A very different way of living if you want to retire at 62 vs. 32. If he wants to retire very early then investment performance is less relevant. Longer time horizons allow major compounding.

Savings rate is most relevant to a very early retiree.
by young-ish
Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sports cards (hockey, baseball) valuation & sale?
Replies: 20
Views: 2454

Re: Sports cards (hockey, baseball) valuation & sale?

Carousel wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:07 am A relative has a large collection of sports cards (mostly baseball and hockey) dating back to the 1930s. He wants to know how to have the estate valued, which auction houses to contact, etc. There are thousands of cards.

EDIT: value might be $50-100K.

Thoughts?
He probably does have some valuable cards if they are pre-war. Even many cards from 1950s & '60s hold significant value.

Condition is very important. Were these cards well loved by kids or carefully pulled from packs and forgotten about? Do you have pictures?

I enjoy collecting cards & would be happy to help. PM me if you want any advice.
by young-ish
Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best book for 25y/o w/ limited investing experience?
Replies: 34
Views: 2938

Re: Best book for 25y/o w/ limited investing experience?

You said SIL, so isn't your brother the one to connect with on this? Did he or she express interest in saving?
by young-ish
Thu Jun 17, 2021 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 31 yr old Portfolio/Career/Home Purchase: A Triple Checkup
Replies: 22
Views: 2874

Re: 31 yr old Portfolio/Career/Home Purchase: A Triple Checkup

Honestly, what's the point of living in a walkable city if you drive a car?

I would sell the cars & take the T.
by young-ish
Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How Am I Doing? 39 year old asking for a checkup
Replies: 19
Views: 4195

Re: How Am I Doing? 39 year old asking for a checkup

Is your Cash/EF/DP in a taxable account?

What are your annual expenses?

What will be your annual expenses in 10 years?
by young-ish
Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are we setting ourselves up for Early Retirement properly?
Replies: 26
Views: 3754

Re: Are we setting ourselves up for Early Retirement properly?

You are doing great!

Love the retirement account balances & contributions at your age. You are way ahead of the game there. Plus congrats on the EF, that can be very comforting during stressful financial times.

My only question is what is the interest rate on the car loans? If it's higher than expected returns of your portfolio it would be well worth it to pay those down quickly.
by young-ish
Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those with bond heavy AAs...how you feeling?
Replies: 99
Views: 14963

Re: For those with bond heavy AAs...how you feeling?

JustGotScammed wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 2:23 pm
I strongly recommend 0% allocation to bonds. Anything paying out under 3.5% is as close to a guaranteed loss of purchasing power as you'll ever encounter. A few dozen MegaCorp stocks are just as safe and pay out dividends that are sometimes higher than bond interest, plus you get capital gains. Bonds are, unfortunately at the current rates prevailing in the United States, a loser's game.
Do you hold a 100% stock portfolio? If so your risk tolerance may be a lot higher than others on this forum. Many here have little need to take large risks with their life savings.
by young-ish
Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Black Swan insurance
Replies: 45
Views: 4325

Re: Black Swan insurance

Social Capital.

Hopefully yourself & other parents have neighbors, friends or family members who can assist during unexpected emergencies.

Any monetary insurance solution for the problems you described will probably be costly. If one can afford this type of insurance they can probably just self-insure.
by young-ish
Fri Mar 26, 2021 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Checkup - Retiring at the end of 2021
Replies: 6
Views: 1696

Re: Portfolio Checkup - Retiring at the end of 2021

Congratulations on your upcoming retirement! You are doing really well financially.

It doesn't sound like you have any need to take risk but assuming you trust your pension & social security you have a high ability to take risk. I would still hold 40-60% in bonds & cash to sleep at night.

More importantly Why are you still saving? The math says you can retire today and easily spend to your full budget for as long as you live.
by young-ish
Wed Feb 24, 2021 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - Preparing to FIRE after Windfall
Replies: 34
Views: 4597

Re: Portfolio Review - Preparing to FIRE after Windfall

Treasuries are the safest form of bonds. With Muni's there is default risk. Overall I would stick with intermediate term on average for the entire portfolio. TIPS have their own risks (lookup Larry Swedroe's comments on them during the '08 crisis).

How did your meeting with you FA go?
by young-ish
Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping my nephew out of his rut
Replies: 94
Views: 13225

Re: Helping my nephew out of his rut

That's great news that he's honoring his debts. Overall he sounds like he's doing quite well for his age.

You may want him to get a new career but does he?

I have to remind myself that BH's are in the minority.
by young-ish
Sat Feb 13, 2021 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - Preparing to FIRE after Windfall
Replies: 34
Views: 4597

Re: Portfolio Review - Preparing to FIRE after Windfall

It sounds like you've read the Pfau/Kitces research on rising equity glidepath to mitigate SORR. As Michael Kitces says "Shelter in the Bond Tent" for the ~5 years before & after you quit. I feel comfortable with a 30-40% equity allocation during this critical decade. Great to hear you prioritizing your family! Congratulations on FIRE! I've read the Kitces article (and now the ERN article as reccomended by Fran) as well as numerous Bogleheads threads debating the merits (or lack of merits) - I am truly torn when it comes to this topic. I'm doing it currently. I like it, nothing sucks more than losing your nest egg right before pulling the trigger. +1 If you have saved enough than you don't need fat returns. You have the abili...
by young-ish
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Review - Preparing to FIRE after Windfall
Replies: 34
Views: 4597

Re: Portfolio Review - Preparing to FIRE after Windfall

I feel very exposed to SORR (Sequence of Returns Risk). I do ask myself often if I am making a mistake by not letting my portfolio continue to grow in my 40s by maintaining my high-earnings, but I recognize that if I do not prioritize my family, I might lose out on what's most important - my kids are only young once and I have a wife that loves to hang out with me!
It sounds like you've read the Pfau/Kitces research on rising equity glidepath to mitigate SORR. As Michael Kitces says "Shelter in the Bond Tent" for the ~5 years before & after you quit. I feel comfortable with a 30-40% equity allocation during this critical decade.

Great to hear you prioritizing your family! Congratulations on FIRE!
by young-ish
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax efficient inflation protection
Replies: 13
Views: 1558

Re: Tax efficient inflation protection

According to Bill Bernstein global equities insure against inflation. They are reasonably tax efficient thanks to the FTC.

+1 vote for iBonds
by young-ish
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Massive Windfall For 35 Year Old Guy
Replies: 95
Views: 14308

Re: Massive Windfall For 35 Year Old Guy

Congratulations on the financial success!

Not much we can suggest unless we know your goals. Perhaps make a back of the envelope budgeting plan for the next few decades. Amounts & dates of big purchases, lifestyle changes & charitable giving.

Also, what is your risk tolerance? Since you are 35 you probably didn't have tons of money in stocks during the tech crash of Y2K or the '08 financial crisis.

What is your favorite book written in the BH style?
by young-ish
Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you stay the course?
Replies: 79
Views: 8030

Re: How do you stay the course?

I stay the course by having a diversified portfolio. One of my holdings is always struggling while another is performing very well.

As Bill Bernstein says "the portfolio is the thing".

How did you determine your allocation? When did you implement it?
by young-ish
Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: my asset allocation
Replies: 18
Views: 1939

Re: my asset allocation

prk wrote: Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:02 pm Thoughts please:

each of the following at 10%

large
large value
small
small value
international
international small
international value (high dividend)
total bond
total international bond
TIPS
Why international bond? David Swensen convinced me that only U.S. Treasuries are necessary for investors spending USD. If you are spending in a forex then you could invest in bonds of those governments.

Small & value debates will go on forever. No need for them but they might help risk adjusted returns.
by young-ish
Mon Feb 08, 2021 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio review request, age 48
Replies: 12
Views: 2246

Re: Portfolio review request, age 48

Questions: Is my allocation too aggressive if I want to retire in 5-7 years? read https://www.kitces.com/blog/managing-portfolio-size-effect-with-bond-tent-in-retirement-red-zone/ from Michael Kitces: "the point remains that perhaps the best way to manage sequence of return risk in the years leading up to retirement and thereafter is simply to build up and then use a reserve of bonds to weather the storm." I’ve tilted more towards international over the past 3-4 years - is it too much allocated there? 40 - 60% International is probably fine Do I need any sort of inflation protection? A global stock portfolio is good long term inflation protection. If you want protection for the next 7 years then add some iBonds and Treasury Bills...
by young-ish
Mon Feb 08, 2021 12:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you plan for retirement if all the sims are wrong?
Replies: 123
Views: 9690

Re: How do you plan for retirement if all the sims are wrong?

That is too vague to comprehend. Can you provide details on how your children are doing it differently? Let me try it this way. They very carefully selected their professions, very, very carefully while also carefully considering their desired lifestyles and career longevity. They are not so much going into work as getting up in the morning to hang out and B.S. with friends at the office. Their work simulates them, challenges them, allows them to collaborate with others, but also to work independently and make personal contributions. They have no desire to retire. And yet their professions are not all consuming. They basically work 9-5, M-F and get 4-5 weeks of vacation a year so they have plenty of time to pursue other interests and hobbi...
by young-ish
Sat Feb 06, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest money you may want to use in mid term?
Replies: 43
Views: 6720

Re: How to invest money you may want to use in mid term?

OldSport wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:28 pm I want to be explicitly clear that I am WILLING TO TAKE SOME RISK and do not want to guarantee loss due to inflation.
How much loss in real value (purchasing power) are you willing to tolerate with these funds?

Common suggestions say multiply that number by 2 and that is your Max. allocation to equities. Willing to lose 1/4 of your funds then 50/50 stock bond split works. Other suggestion (Bill Bernstein) says keep a "decade or two of expenses" outside of equities preferably in Treasuries.

Personally I think iBonds purchased at Treasury Direct work very well for medium term expenses.
by young-ish
Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2.25% Initial Withdrawal Rate.... FIRE?
Replies: 30
Views: 3914

Re: 2.25% Initial Withdrawal Rate.... FIRE?

Yes, I would begin by withdrawing the interest & dividends from the portfolio. The Vanguard Balanced Index Fund is yielding 1.4%. Add to that the "RMD" style of desired lifespan of your portfolio. Even if you want it to last 65 more years the additional WD would be 1.5%. Add 1.4 + 1.5 = 2.9% starting WDR.

More importantly how do you want to spend you time when you retire?

Also, Congratulations!!!
by young-ish
Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to recovery
Replies: 15
Views: 2291

Re: Time to recovery

Check out research by Wade Pfau about "How Low The Stock Market Can Go"...

https://www.mcleanam.com/greatest-hits/

The global stock market decline that began in 1913 did not recover losses until 1924. Eleven years seems like a reasonable worst case for a globally diversified equity portfolio.
by young-ish
Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this the right Fund for Metals?
Replies: 7
Views: 1637

Re: Is this the right Fund for Metals?

leo28 wrote:Hi,

Im relatively new to investing and recently decided to add precious metals to my portfolio
Welcome Leo.

What interests you about buying precious metals? Have you read books and research papers about the subject?

Metals and the stocks of the companies that mine them tend to be very volatile.
Many people who decide to invest in metals are quickly turned off by extreme moves in the market.
by young-ish
Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10yr 30yr Treasury Bonds in Roth IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 761

Re: 10yr 30yr Treasury Bonds in Roth IRA?

Should long term treasury bonds be held in a Roth IRA? Or better to leave in taxable. I hold Long-term Treasury Bonds only in tax deferred accounts. This is because the interest income is fully taxable at the Federal level. When my IRA/401k is filled up with bonds I hold low-turnover stock index mutual funds in my taxable account. This is especially advantageous if in the 15% or lower income tax bracket since Long-term Capital Gains from stock sales would be taxed at zero. Wow I had no idea about the 0% option if in 15% or below. That is a pretty awesome thing to be aware of. Thank you! You are welcome. You can read more at the IRS website about Capital Gains... https://www.irs.gov/uac/ten-facts-that-you-should-know-about-capital-gains-and...
by young-ish
Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10yr 30yr Treasury Bonds in Roth IRA?
Replies: 3
Views: 761

Re: 10yr 30yr Treasury Bonds in Roth IRA?

JimTaylor33 wrote:Should long term treasury bonds be held in a Roth IRA? Or better to leave in taxable.
I hold Long-term Treasury Bonds only in tax deferred accounts. This is because the interest income is fully taxable at the Federal level.

When my IRA/401k is filled up with bonds I hold low-turnover stock index mutual funds in my taxable account. This is especially advantageous if in the 15% or lower income tax bracket since Long-term Capital Gains from stock sales would be taxed at zero.