Search found 1382 matches

by Karamatsu
Tue Jun 22, 2021 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do stocks always fall faster than they rise ?
Replies: 54
Views: 5129

Re: Why do stocks always fall faster than they rise ?

Anybody wonder why? It's the difference between the time needed to build a house of cards and the time needed to knock one down. There's a well-recognized (but somewhat controversial) result from behavioral finance called loss aversion bias. It demonstrates that, on average , when under conditions ...
by Karamatsu
Sat Jun 05, 2021 7:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International investing ex-China?
Replies: 9
Views: 1062

Re: International investing ex-China?

I do own (thanks to taking TLH during one of the drops in international funds over the past few years) VEMAX which is 40% China. Thanks for pointing that out. Although it makes perfect sense in retrospect for a cap-weighted fund to be heavily weighted toward China, I didn't realize that the fund ha...
by Karamatsu
Sun May 30, 2021 8:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Liquidating stock in a failed and long-gone small privately held company when officers can no longer be found.
Replies: 10
Views: 1327

Re: Liquidating stock in a failed and long-gone small privately held company when officers can no longer be found.

I have no idea but it's an interesting problem and I hope you will post the answer when you get it. When I had some traded shares that were then delisted (the dot-com days), my broker took them off my hands, so if your friend has a brokerage account, they might be willing to do that as a customer se...
by Karamatsu
Sun May 30, 2021 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing akin to free money? Any risks?
Replies: 28
Views: 3271

Re: Is investing akin to free money? Any risks?

I know there is a risk of it going down a lot but how is it different than just getting rewarded for taking risks without any underlying work? This is the nature of capitalism: putting the wealth you worked hard for (or not) at risk in hopes of gaining positive return. In an upward trending market,...
by Karamatsu
Sun May 30, 2021 5:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundamental analysis help
Replies: 17
Views: 1900

Re: Fundamental analysis help

Also check your broker. They probably have all those indicators and more available in screeners and in research reports. Schwab, for example, has extremely good research data. If you're going to use ratios like that, I highly recommend using a screener, since that will let you decide which parameter...
by Karamatsu
Sun May 23, 2021 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question about Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Valuation Model
Replies: 9
Views: 679

Re: Question about Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Valuation Model

What exactly is the cash flow term What I always used was free cash flow to the firm. Producing a good value for this is time consuming and something of an art, but well worth doing. Just remember that even if you spend weeks on your analysis, there is no guarantee at all that the market will ever ...
by Karamatsu
Sat May 22, 2021 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A lost decade for stocks and bonds on the horizon?
Replies: 693
Views: 50832

Re: A lost decade for stocks and bonds on the horizon?

Many will write off all these estimates as being worthless, and perhaps they're right, but I suspect not. Many will say that this is not actionable, but I believe that it may be in an important way: you might need to reduce your return expectations accordingly. On the one hand, I think reality will...
by Karamatsu
Wed May 19, 2021 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me about your equities ramp up strategy
Replies: 9
Views: 1819

Re: Tell me about your equities ramp up strategy

Ah, good. Broadly diversified funds are definitely the place to be in a major downturn. Let's just hope we aren't all tested like that again anytime soon.
by Karamatsu
Tue May 18, 2021 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the the equity equivalent of STRIPS?
Replies: 10
Views: 1066

Re: What the the equity equivalent of STRIPS?

I guess I'm not only looking to strip out the dividends, I'm also looking to strip out the options value of the equity that allows someone to trade it for the next 25 years. So how do I sell that to someone? I don't think there is any kind of vehicle for doing this available on exchanges, in part b...
by Karamatsu
Sun May 16, 2021 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me about your equities ramp up strategy
Replies: 9
Views: 1819

Re: Tell me about your equities ramp up strategy

Well done, although... the COVID sell-off last year had the index down about 34%. If you were only 25% invested in equities, then your total portfolio would have lost 8.5%. If you were thinking of panic selling then, how will you feel the next time the market drops 50%, when d 45% of your portfolio'...
by Karamatsu
Sun May 16, 2021 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time zones and retail investor behavior
Replies: 8
Views: 1190

Re: Time zones and retail investor behavior

Our situation here in Japan is about as extreme as you can get, currently 13 hours ahead of US Eastern time. Professionals can and do start their work day in the evening in order to be on hand for the open at 22:30, but for those of us who work (at most other endeavors) for a living, it the time dif...
by Karamatsu
Fri May 14, 2021 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?
Replies: 20
Views: 1268

Re: Currency hedged bond ETFs ?

Depending on the currency and the duration, exchange rate fluctuations can swamp the return on foreign bonds over the course of a single day, so it seems to me that if what you want is the bond return and low volatility that bond funds are typically used to provide in a typical Boglehead portfolio, ...
by Karamatsu
Thu May 13, 2021 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me about your equities ramp up strategy
Replies: 9
Views: 1819

Re: Tell me about your equities ramp up strategy

Before moving to funds I traded individual stocks, so in truth I didn't so much ramp up equities as ramp them down, but the transition was probably similar. Writing an IPS and deciding on an asset-class-based allocation (as opposed to issue-based allocation) was the hardest part, because there are s...
by Karamatsu
Wed May 12, 2021 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you buy cryptocurrency?
Replies: 199
Views: 13105

Re: When would you buy cryptocurrency?

After some consideration, I suppose there are three situations in which I might buy cryptocurrency: (1) if I wanted to purchase something anonymously, (2) if I wanted to purchase something that could only be purchased in cryptocurrency (or where cryptocurrency was the most efficient medium of exchan...
by Karamatsu
Tue May 11, 2021 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anybody actually rebalance across bond holdings?
Replies: 25
Views: 1756

Re: Does anybody actually rebalance across bond holdings?

It's an interesting question, whether slice/dice is worth it. I'd have to back-test. I do have questions, though, about the wisdom of market-weighting bonds. With equities it makes a certain amount of sense to "follow the money" and the best guesses of the crowd, but with bonds you're foll...
by Karamatsu
Tue May 11, 2021 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does anybody actually rebalance across bond holdings?
Replies: 25
Views: 1756

Re: Does anybody actually rebalance across bond holdings?

My bonds are split across three types and I try to keep them in correct proportions, but thus far I've always done that either with new money or with the proceeds when individual treasuries mature, so I think you're right, and I've never actually sold one type in order to buy another. That could cha...
by Karamatsu
Tue May 11, 2021 3:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Over income limit for Roth IRA-accidentally contributed :(
Replies: 4
Views: 409

Re: Over income limit for Roth IRA-accidentally contributed :(

Assuming you have the numbers right, you should call Vanguard TODAY. There's an important difference between doing the recharacterization before the due date for your return and after. From the IRS FAQ : If this is done by the due date for filing your tax return (including extensions), you can treat...
by Karamatsu
Sat May 08, 2021 7:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Possible to invest while unemployed and leaning on Medicaid?
Replies: 8
Views: 1207

Re: Possible to invest while unemployed and leaning on Medicaid?

You could certainly invest all or a portion of that settlement money to your benefit. However I really agree with Adfmacro. The greatest investment you could make right now, the one with the highest long-term return, is to invest in yourself. In a society like the US, where upward mobility is severe...
by Karamatsu
Sat May 08, 2021 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?
Replies: 116
Views: 10046

Re: What Ever Happened to "Your Age In Bonds"?

Are there more substantive reasons for the decline of "your age in bonds" or should we be revisiting this mantra? Personally I still use age-in-bonds as a benchmark. I like it because it's simple and unequivocal. A person can rationalize and fool themselves into believing just about anyth...
by Karamatsu
Sat May 08, 2021 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should I sell some stocks funds/Rebalance to preserve potential future losses?
Replies: 17
Views: 1939

Re: When should I sell some stocks funds/Rebalance to preserve potential future losses?

Oh, sorry. The traditional advice is "age in bonds," but when equities are doing well, I guess we all get a little greedy/starstruck, and you start seeing posts about things like "age minus ten." In your case, at age 35, that would mean 25% in bonds (35-10) instead of the more tr...
by Karamatsu
Sat May 08, 2021 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it time to rethink automatic reinvestment of dividends in a taxable account?
Replies: 43
Views: 5355

Re: Is it time to rethink automatic reinvestment of dividends in a taxable account?

Unless you actually are depending on them to rebalance, I no longer see any reason to do this manually, very rarely are dividends necessary for rebalancing vs new money, either new money is enough or I need TLH or selling to accomplish a rebalance. I think the advantages of automatic reinvestment g...
by Karamatsu
Fri May 07, 2021 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: preferred stocks
Replies: 7
Views: 1050

Re: preferred stocks

Yes. It's just as if you had sold, except that (if I remember right) there's no broker commission.
by Karamatsu
Fri May 07, 2021 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dividends on foreign funds, estimating current year
Replies: 8
Views: 746

Re: Dividends on foreign funds, estimating current year

If the market is efficient, investors' best estimate for changes in distribution yield will be priced in, making the best estimator of the forward distribution yield the current distribution yield. There unknowns, but they can be positive or negative, and by definition there is no way to know what t...
by Karamatsu
Thu May 06, 2021 5:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When should I sell some stocks funds/Rebalance to preserve potential future losses?
Replies: 17
Views: 1939

Re: When should I sell some stocks funds/Rebalance to preserve potential future losses?

I think this may be something worth paying attention to: I was veering towards using new money to buy bonds and increase my bond holding %, however I really wonder if I should take some of my stock gains to buy the bonds. I don't need the money, but psychologically I would feel poor if something dro...
by Karamatsu
Tue May 04, 2021 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American citizen abroad and under FEIE- IRA contribution possible?
Replies: 15
Views: 1029

Re: American citizen abroad and under FEIE- IRA contribution possible?

The IRS closed its Beijing office in 2013...
Wow. Hard to believe it's been that long since I talked to them. But perhaps that's for the best!
by Karamatsu
Mon May 03, 2021 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Net negative bond investment?
Replies: 10
Views: 1260

Re: Net negative bond investment?

Thanks for clarifying the tax treatment. My 1099 always show dividends from bond funds, but little or no interest, so I just assumed that the dividends were interest payments being passed through. I guess they must be doing some sort of financial engineering under the hood.
by Karamatsu
Mon May 03, 2021 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American citizen abroad and under FEIE- IRA contribution possible?
Replies: 15
Views: 1029

Re: American citizen abroad and under FEIE- IRA contribution possible?

I am under the impression that it is not possible to contribute to an IRA of any kind (Roth or Traditional) if all income is excluded. That's correct. If you exclude all of your foreign-earned income, then you have no earned income to contribute to an IRA. The only way to have some US-earned income...
by Karamatsu
Mon May 03, 2021 2:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Net negative bond investment?
Replies: 10
Views: 1260

Re: Net negative bond investment?

Just a couple of things. First, if you paid 38,400 for the bond and it's yielding 3.7% then the coupon rate must be more like 4% and your annual interest payments will be about $1,420 rather than $1,295 (there's round-off error so it's hard to be exact). Second, any bond yielding 3.7% in the current...
by Karamatsu
Sat May 01, 2021 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2339

Re: Chinese Bonds?

Unfortunately, I am an American and American should not buy foreign funds/ETFs because of the US tax treatment. If there was an efficient way to invest in the ILS from the US to do what you are doing with the Yen I would do it. Yes, it's a familiar conundrum. I'm a US citizen, too. Although I do ha...
by Karamatsu
Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2339

Re: Chinese Bonds?

Ha! Yes, it's a good point about speculating in the USD, but if the issue is the USD/ISL rate then maybe it would be better to look into ways to deal with that more directly than using Chinese bonds? I'm just thinking out loud. In truth I have never found a good, low-cost way to deal with the fluctu...
by Karamatsu
Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Chinese Bonds?
Replies: 30
Views: 2339

Re: Chinese Bonds?

The advice I was given early on was that foreign bond investments should be hedged, otherwise currency fluctuations can easily swamp (for better or worse) the bond yields, while if the goal is to speculate on exchange rates, there are easier, lower-cost ways to do it. Several companies offer Chinese...
by Karamatsu
Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cryptocurrency Owners - Where Do You Keep Your Seed?
Replies: 63
Views: 5530

Re: Cryptocurrency Owners - Where Do You Keep Your Seed?

In the default way that they're used, people don't have the option of choosing their own seed value. What's really going on is that the seed is a 256 bit number, and the 24 words are chosen from a predefined ordered set of 2048 words, each representing 11 bits of that number (with some bits left ove...
by Karamatsu
Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Trading Stock Tips on TikTok, Newbies Are Deeply Invested in Learning"
Replies: 11
Views: 1019

Re: "Trading Stock Tips on TikTok, Newbies Are Deeply Invested in Learning"

Personally I'm horrified, because most of them will get taken. Just like all the other fake financial media, they will focus on the few who are temporarily making profits to make it all seem safe, hip, and exciting, while the risks are ignored or hand-waved away. We see the same thing here in Japan ...
by Karamatsu
Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cryptocurrency Owners - Where Do You Keep Your Seed?
Replies: 63
Views: 5530

Re: Cryptocurrency Owners - Where Do You Keep Your Seed?

Yes, in many ways the seed makes you less secure than simply having a hardware wallet and PIN, but it's also a fact of life that tiny electronic devices get lost, stolen, damaged, or simply stop working after a few years. Likewise brain cells. And you are correct that password managers and cloud sto...
by Karamatsu
Thu Apr 29, 2021 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expat worker tIRA eligibility question
Replies: 9
Views: 505

Re: Expat worker tIRA eligibility question

We have a tax treaty in place here, and a government-run pension system, so I haven't looked into this before, but a quick scan of Publications 54 and 590-A suggests that contributions to a retirement plan at work can affect the amount of a tIRA contribution that you're able to deduct , but not the ...
by Karamatsu
Sun Jan 17, 2021 2:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: places and ways to invest in crypto
Replies: 44
Views: 6880

Re: places and ways to invest in crypto

... what other platforms can I use to buy Bitcoin and Etherium directly? You might take a look at Phemex . Setting up an account is free. You can then buy BTC through any of the linked markets. As usual it's probably better to transfer your coins to a personal hardware wallet. Since you have experi...
by Karamatsu
Tue Sep 08, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lump Sum Vs Dollar Cost Average
Replies: 19
Views: 1760

Re: Lump Sum Vs Dollar Cost Average

I am having a hard time putting Lump Sum Investment. I think if you're having trouble putting all your money in as a lump sum, it just means that your asset allocation is too aggressive. Say you DCA in over the next six months or a year. At that point you will be all-in, and what matters then is th...
by Karamatsu
Tue Sep 08, 2020 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Are we being too conservative for our retirement?
Replies: 39
Views: 5403

Re: Are we being too conservative for our retirement?

Personally I think your bonds/equities mix is a good one, so obviously I'm on the conservative side. If you didn't have the inflation-adjusted pension, I'd worry that you had too much in nominal bonds (versus TIPS), but as long as the pension is secure, maybe that's not a big issue? On the equity si...
by Karamatsu
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Curious> China emerging market.
Replies: 11
Views: 1354

Re: Curious> China emerging market.

A surprise to me: two of them include Venezuela. :o FTSE isn't one of them, and my Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund hasn't invested any of my money in Venezuela. Now I'm experiencing Fear Of Missing Out!
Perhaps there needs to be a new category for "submerging" markets?
by Karamatsu
Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rich people are hoarding cash
Replies: 233
Views: 35913

Re: Rich people are hoarding cash

I think the article is just noise. With the curve inverted and the 90-day T-bill (typically considered a cash-equivalent) yielding 1.96% that's not bad return at all.
by Karamatsu
Mon Aug 26, 2019 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Volatile stocks for fun: Limit Order or Stop Limit Order for maximum profit
Replies: 25
Views: 1533

Re: Volatile stocks for fun: Limit Order or Stop Limit Order for maximum profit

On looking back, I feel I should have used stop-loss orders. Well, I think of it in two ways. One is that if this is for education/fun, then maybe what you could do is take your position in the volatile company (or any of them) and split that. Place a sell-limit order on one half and a stop-loss or...
by Karamatsu
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 70
Views: 9631

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

My impression from having many Japanese friends is that "a Japanese passive investor" has never invested that much in the stock market. They are simply less concerned about what happened to the Japanese stock market than Americans are concerned about the Japanese stock market. I think tha...
by Karamatsu
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 70
Views: 9631

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

I have been reading increasingly of fears that the global economy is looking like the Japan economy did pre-crisis (such fears may be overblown but they do raise an interesting question) Are you concerned about the economy or the financial markets? As far as the markets go, it was pretty much a str...
by Karamatsu
Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Schwab's Securities Lending Fully Paid (SLFP) program
Replies: 26
Views: 8328

Re: Schwab's Securities Lending Fully Paid (SLFP) program

Schwab just sent me an offer of a 73% interest rate on loan of 100 shares of stock I think I would contact Schwab immediately, by phone (and be sure to look up the number rather than rely on anything in the offer) and make sure this is legitimate. 73%? For 100 shares? If I got something like that, ...
by Karamatsu
Wed May 29, 2019 1:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I check my portfolio as little as possible?
Replies: 69
Views: 3855

Re: How can I check my portfolio as little as possible?

Thank you so much for your ideas to help me stick with my inadvisably-risky portfolio for 15 years! I suppose I would just not look. Set up automatic contributions, or whatever it takes to keep new money flowing into your portfolio, reinvest all dividends, and then get involved in non-financial thi...
by Karamatsu
Wed May 29, 2019 12:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Closed End Funds
Replies: 15
Views: 3291

Re: Closed End Funds

I used to speculate in CEFs. They were a wild ride in 2008-2009, and when leverage funding dried up it looked like many of them would go under, but banks were willing to lend to them and none of the ones I held actually folded, which is more than I can say for some preferred stocks. But CEF structur...
by Karamatsu
Tue May 28, 2019 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you have an allocation more conservative than 50/50 ?? What is it? Why? How Bogleheads are getting it done.
Replies: 166
Views: 21747

Re: Do you have an allocation more conservative than 50/50 ?? What is it? Why?

Does anyone here have an allocation that is more conservative than 50/50? My allocation has been 35/65 for a long time. It's based mostly on my own assessment of my risk tolerance and the impact that a significant drop in equity prices would have on future financial plans. Following a discussion he...
by Karamatsu
Tue May 14, 2019 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do posters/the press underestimate changes to the structure of markets?
Replies: 9
Views: 1165

Re: Do posters/the press underestimate changes to the structure of markets?

Why are posters and articles not discussing these more, in your opinion? There are big differences among posters here, of course, with different levels of knowledge and expertise, but when you get right down to it, the only data we have on which to base our decisions are the data that we have. Perh...
by Karamatsu
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a company's stock buyback optional or mandatory for individual shareholders?
Replies: 7
Views: 853

Re: Is a company's stock buyback optional or mandatory for individual shareholders?

I've seem similar things during takeover bids in Japan, where the new buyers will make an offer, the board will recommend that shareholders accept it, the major shareholders sell, but...... some small shareholders, for whatever reason, do not. I've always suspected that they just ignored the shareho...
by Karamatsu
Sun Dec 02, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Sell and Buy Decisions - Math answers
Replies: 8
Views: 1279

Re: Bond Sell and Buy Decisions - Math answers

For example, I have a bond bought for $996.875 with a buy yield of 2.080%. I asked a Vg fixed income person if there is a standard or usual name for the product of these two numbers, i.e. 2.080% x $996.875 = $20.735. He said that there is no standard name for this number, the $20.735. I kind of see...