Search found 1306 matches

by GAAP
Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help deciding ratio of college vs. retirement savings
Replies: 10
Views: 742

Re: Help deciding ratio of college vs. retirement savings

You will need to stop working at some point -- it may not be by choice, and it may not be when you think it will be. Your children may or may not go to college -- it was doubtful for mine for a while. Even if they do go, they may get there via the GI Bill like one of mine did. The amount of money ne...
by GAAP
Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suddenly retired; Read the book; Have questions!
Replies: 21
Views: 3213

Re: Suddenly retired; Read the book; Have questions!

1. Goals: Since I, being the younger one, presumably have 40+ years of retirement, should I break my “retirement” goal into two timeframes: “retirement 0-20 years” AND “retirement 21-40+ years” and do a different asset allocation for each? It would seem that the 21-40 years would have a more aggres...
by GAAP
Fri Mar 19, 2021 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Squared Away: Does higher life expectancy make people retire later?
Replies: 45
Views: 3919

Re: Squared Away: Does higher life expectancy make people retire later?

Potential longevity wasn't even a consideration for me -- I retired at 58, and there's a fair amount of longevity in my family. Given what we keep hearing/reading about the average person and their inability to save for retirement, it may just be that people are working longer because they have no r...
by GAAP
Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Medallion signature guarantee
Replies: 79
Views: 5600

Re: Medallion signature guarantee

Check with the bank you actually use -- most will only guarantee their own clients, and only if they have enough history.

If all else fails, another choice is https://esignatureguarantee.com/ at $149/stamp.
by GAAP
Sun Feb 28, 2021 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total portfolio allocation and withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 75
Views: 7925

Re: Total portfolio allocation and withdrawal (TPAW)

Glad I was on the right track for the house value. The thing I’m still chewing on is that in my situation I do expect to have a house value at the end of life, and it seems like that should ideally be factored in some how. If I reach 80 years old and need extra money for monthly expenses, I could s...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Power tool storage in non-conditioned, detached garage
Replies: 21
Views: 1910

Re: Power tool storage in non-conditioned, detached garage

My dad's radial arm saw, purchased in 1968, always in non-conditioned garages (Illinois, Idaho, California) was still working fine when we sold in 2017, I still have and use some of his smaller power tools from the same era, now stored in unconditioned space in the Puget Sound area.
by GAAP
Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
Replies: 22
Views: 1850

Re: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?

The current total market cap is the price you would pay for future income streams of all the companies, discounted to the present. Whereas the GNP represents the value of good and services produced in one year, a good deal of which (wages) don't even flow as profits to corporations, so I don't unde...
by GAAP
Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?
Replies: 22
Views: 1850

Re: Can someone explain the logic behind the Buffett Indicator?

He is comparing what it costs to buy the production capacity of the country vs. the resulting output of that production capacity. The higher that ratio, the less you get for your money. The next paragraph in that article says: For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. bu...
by GAAP
Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stick with Bond AA or 10 Years Living Expenses?
Replies: 31
Views: 1769

Re: Stick with Bond AA or 10 Years Living Expenses?

I also found that while working my risk tolerance was very good -- since I had a decent salary. In retirement, when I had to withdraw from a shrinking nest egg and had no human capital, I had much less risk tolerance. +1 Agreed, one can't underestimate this. Quote above edited for brevity A withdra...
by GAAP
Wed Feb 24, 2021 3:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: First Ever Real Cell Phone Plan (pilot needs)
Replies: 12
Views: 661

Re: First Ever Real Cell Phone Plan (pilot needs)

Are you referring to commercial air-travel airports? if so, then it is likely that all of the carriers will have decent service -- and in the associated urban areas. If you're talking about small airfields in the middle of nowhere, then your best bet is to compare each carrier's coverage maps with t...
by GAAP
Wed Feb 24, 2021 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)
Replies: 7
Views: 878

Re: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)

Wouldn't equity allocation go up as stock prices rise even if investors simply hold their shares without selling? I agree that chasing performance is unlikely to work but I also hesitate to believe it is possible to time the market going the other way for the same reason. Yes, the equity allocation...
by GAAP
Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)
Replies: 7
Views: 878

Re: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)

In other words, there is a strong positive correlation between stock prices and investor allocation to stocks -- investors buy more as prices rise, and vice versa. This irrational investor behavior is obvious when viewed graphically. Might we just as easily attribute this to investor laziness as we...
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you plan in real or nominal dollars?
Replies: 70
Views: 3466

Re: Do you plan in real or nominal dollars?

Real, the bulk of my planning inputs are real, very little that is nominal. It's a lot easier to understand long term real effects when they're calculated that way rather than nominally. If you don't trust the measures of inflation, then you can always add a fudge factor to your real number calculat...
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Metal Ducts - insulate, seal, or replace
Replies: 28
Views: 2360

Re: Metal Ducts - insulate, seal, or replace

Flex ducts, especially on the return side, are not a good idea. Yeah, they're cheap -- but cheap is the operative term. A system with a flex duct return is just waiting for someone to forget to change a filter -- at which point, the pressure collapses the duct, permanently.
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator
Replies: 46
Views: 3388

Re: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator

If you're going to the multiple generator level of complexity for reliability, then add the ability to manually connect another generator. That allows you to add a temporary generator if one fails. That’s a good recommendation for some of the scenarios, somewhat addressed by the PowerSync option (w...
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7809

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

The difference here is that those were not domestic geopolitical or fiscal events. I don't have the same faith that most have in the US Treasury. Once you take that assumption out, the choice to diversify globally becomes much easier. So if one wants to guard against a total collapse of the US bond...
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (4 of 4)
Replies: 5
Views: 626

Re: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (4 of 4)

One thing I am wondering about though are the various Utility Functions (e.g. goals) that are in play in the market by different actors. Especially so since the retail investor is such a small portion of the overall market. WoodSpinner I think the reality of the market is a large-scale economic pri...
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7809

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Geo-political risk or fiscal policy differences is probably a real diversifier, but that is also going to manifest as differences in one of the above, along with exchange rates...which will be hedged away. That depends upon how rapidly the bad stuff happens. 1917 provides a fairly clear example in ...
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator
Replies: 46
Views: 3388

Re: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator

It can depend on the particular model. We have a previously installed 8kw Generac that is no longer sold, because so many problems were encountered. It was Generac’s attempt to hit a lower price point, and the compromises weren’t that well thought out. I believe that it’s 9 years old. I am going to...
by GAAP
Mon Feb 22, 2021 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7809

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

Geo-political risk or fiscal policy differences is probably a real diversifier, but that is also going to manifest as differences in one of the above, along with exchange rates...which will be hedged away. That depends upon how rapidly the bad stuff happens. 1917 provides a fairly clear example in ...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation & Inexperience During Bear Markets
Replies: 72
Views: 3236

Re: Asset Allocation & Inexperience During Bear Markets

Use Portfolio Visualizer to compare portfolio drawdown performance. For example, here's a simple comparison of 70/30, 80/20, and 90/10 domestic portfolios since 2007: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=2007&firstMonth...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?
Replies: 48
Views: 3232

Re: Bill Sharpe World Stock/Bond portfolio, who holds it?

I was more curious if anyone sets their AA based on Sharpe's portfolio. So they would be holding a 54/46 portfolio. Actually, the proportions are 57/43 stocks/bonds . Or just round it to the ubiquitous 60/40. According to the calculator that Sharpe references, the FTSE Russell Adaptive Asset Alloca...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (4 of 4)
Replies: 5
Views: 626

Re: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (4 of 4)

It seems people want to give a lot more significance to data-mined metrics than even the originators of the metrics had intended. Prof Shiller has repeatedly said CAPE10 should not be used for market timing, but there are almost daily threads alluding to exactly that. There are almost daily threads...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)
Replies: 7
Views: 878

Re: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)

Since 1951, the correlation between average CAPE10 and aggregate equity allocation has been 0.85. In 1974, ERISA established basic funding requirements for pensions, and provided for the creation of IRAs. Four years later, section 401(k) became law, leading to the first 401(k) retirement plan in 19...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (4 of 4)
Replies: 5
Views: 626

Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (4 of 4)

Note: This is a very large post with a lot of graphs. It has been broken into four parts in order to manage the length, and to focus the discussion. Subject Matter Part 1: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5832683#p5832683 Introduction Part 2: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopi...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (3 of 4)
Replies: 0
Views: 210

Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (3 of 4)

Note: This is a very large post with a lot of graphs. It has been broken into four parts in order to manage the length, and to focus the discussion. Subject Matter Part 1: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5832683#p5832683 Introduction Part 2: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopi...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (2 of 4)
Replies: 0
Views: 283

Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (2 of 4)

Note: This is a very large post with a lot of graphs. It has been broken into four parts in order to manage the length, and to focus the discussion. Subject Matter Part 1: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5832683#p5832683 Introduction Part 2: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopi...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)
Replies: 7
Views: 878

Reducing Market Risk via Inverse Aggregate Allocation (1 of 4)

Note: This is a very large post with a lot of graphs. It has been broken into four parts in order to manage the length, and to focus the discussion. Subject Matter Part 1: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5832683#p5832683 Introduction Part 2: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopi...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is so special about the Toyota Tacoma?
Replies: 97
Views: 10501

Re: What is so special about the Toyota Tacoma?

I have one -- but the only reason for me was that I could get a manual transmission in a 4WD truck with the Tacoma. Two years ago, that was the only choice available. I think it is over-priced. The interior controls are poorly thought out -- I have to stop the vehicle to see some of them. You have t...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about state income taxes when moving from one state to another
Replies: 14
Views: 1068

Re: Question about state income taxes when moving from one state to another

I moved from CA to WA. As long as you completely move, CA will only tax you for income in the months you lived there. I moved in January, got a bonus a few months later and the bonus was not taxed.
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New teen driver.
Replies: 20
Views: 1383

Re: New teen driver.

You might want to look into new driver programs -- we got discounts on insurance with our kids when they took an additional teen-driver class. We gave them choice of taking the class (boring), paying for their own insurance, or not getting licensed -- boring won. Great idea, how much was the discou...
by GAAP
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator
Replies: 46
Views: 3388

Re: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator

Diesel generators will last far longer than a similarly sized gasoline generator. It's typical for them to run for at least 10,000 hours, and 50,000 hours is not unheard of with some large models. Gas engines in cars and light trucks are designed for operating with low to moderate loads for 95%+ of...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator
Replies: 46
Views: 3388

Re: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator

Just for context, if you drive a car at 60mph for 3000 hours, that's 180000 miles. That's not to say that cars and stationary engines are designed the same, or that you can't design a stationary engine to have a 3000 hour design life (if, for example, it was intended to only be used sporadically in...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator
Replies: 46
Views: 3388

Re: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator

"The telecom world runs generators for multiple decades, generally with weekly or monthly test runs." The ones I am familiar with in those applications are slower turning diesels with water cooled jackets speced out just for their longevity. Diesel has the advantage of low volatility -- i...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New teen driver.
Replies: 20
Views: 1383

Re: New teen driver.

You might want to look into new driver programs -- we got discounts on insurance with our kids when they took an additional teen-driver class. We gave them choice of taking the class (boring), paying for their own insurance, or not getting licensed -- boring won.
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7809

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

I think it partly depends upon how you define risk. My definition includes economic failure in the US (a black swan to most in this forum), but my reading of history tells me that all empires fail, and that the time to failure has become shorter as the pace of change has increased. I also spent 30 ...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator
Replies: 46
Views: 3388

Re: Typical Lifespan of Generac Propane-Powered, Standby Generator

Have had a Generac 13-kw, propane-powered, standby generator for nearly 15 years. This has enabled us to maintain power through various winter storms, nor'easters, hurricanes, and the like. When in use, we have killed generator power at bedtime (and kept the doors closed on our refrigerator and sta...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you're 30-ish years away from retirement, should you have any bonds?
Replies: 94
Views: 4382

Re: If you're 30-ish years away from retirement, should you have any bonds?

FWIW, and a different perspective -- my mother was about 90-95% equity when she died at age 89. Her AA varied over the years, but she was willing to live with that volatility. My father died at age 53, after serving in both WWI and Korea, so SS paid very little -- yet she made it all work for her. I...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled
Replies: 20
Views: 1603

Re: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled

Having had the task to administer several small family estates, I noticed that the bequests written by local attorneys left a lot to be desired. Fortunately, no harm was done. My career and training required very precise language. So it is disappointing to me when I see imprecise language. My exper...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled
Replies: 20
Views: 1603

Re: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled

Keep in mind that this means that D would get nothing -- it's not clear to me that is what you would really want to happen since you mention D getting the bulk of your estate. The percentage example would mean that D would get the bulk of the estate, namely 91%. Not if the remaining estate is less ...
by GAAP
Sat Feb 20, 2021 12:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled
Replies: 20
Views: 1603

Re: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled

Keep in mind that this means that D would get nothing -- it's not clear to me that is what you would really want to happen since you mention D getting the bulk of your estate. The percentage example would mean that D would get the bulk of the estate, namely 91%. Not if the remaining estate is less ...
by GAAP
Fri Feb 19, 2021 8:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Very confused about choosing between traditional & roth 401k
Replies: 143
Views: 8386

Re: Very confused about choosing between traditional & roth 401k

If you're in the 22% bracket today, you will be in the 25% or even 28% bracket in 2026 -- keep that in mind when planning.
by GAAP
Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled
Replies: 20
Views: 1603

Re: Order of beneficiaries in trust or will - how distributions are handled

Unless you specify otherwise, A, B and C get filled pro rata. If that's not what you want, have your lawyer revise your Will so it says what you want it to say. That's what I wanted to know - if there was a rule of law on distributions that specified they are filled pro rata vs the order of listing...
by GAAP
Fri Feb 19, 2021 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?
Replies: 141
Views: 7809

Re: Re-evaluating Total World Bond (BNDW)?

I think it partly depends upon how you define risk. My definition includes economic failure in the US (a black swan to most in this forum), but my reading of history tells me that all empires fail, and that the time to failure has become shorter as the pace of change has increased. I also spent 30 y...
by GAAP
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [Generators]/ supplemental power generation
Replies: 162
Views: 8714

Re: [Generators]/ supplemental power generation

What are the options? - gasoline or other fuel based generator - natural gas powered generator (I looked this up, you can get these) - Batteries? - other? If I did somethjng I'd want it to be able to run a heater or central air. Is that feasible? I've never been big on the idea of solar panels, I'm...
by GAAP
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stocks Fall, Weighed Down by Tech Losses and Jobless Claims"
Replies: 24
Views: 1673

Re: "Stocks Fall, Weighed Down by Tech Losses and Jobless Claims"

I would be happy to explain the TRUTH if you would just subscribe to my market newsletter -- at a special price of $1000/day* if you respond today!




[*] Based on a minimum ten year subscription.
by GAAP
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Withdrawing in retirement
Replies: 22
Views: 3278

Re: Withdrawing in retirement

My personal choice is to maintain about 3 months of expenses in cash. Dividends and distributions go to cash (are not reinvested), and the net result is the occasional need to sell something when I need cash or buy something when I have excess cash.
by GAAP
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Invest Money Dedicated for Roth Conversion Tax
Replies: 21
Views: 1214

Re: Where to Invest Money Dedicated for Roth Conversion Tax

If you're over 59 1/2, can't you just withdraw money from the tIRA to pay conversion taxes on other funds in the tIRA? (assuming that you invest the $100K in the market and the market tanks) That does seem like an obvious option, but most advice seems to shy away from using tIRA sales to pay the co...
by GAAP
Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to Invest Money Dedicated for Roth Conversion Tax
Replies: 21
Views: 1214

Re: Where to Invest Money Dedicated for Roth Conversion Tax

Taxable income, including Roth conversions is currently planned to be right at the top of the 22% MFJ bracket. Total “income” / living expenses budgeted at $90K, so staying below $100K won’t make a dent in the conversions I need to sufficiently reduce future RMDs. Don't forget that the current brac...
by GAAP
Wed Feb 17, 2021 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on investing in non-taxable accounts
Replies: 36
Views: 3244

Re: Thoughts on investing in non-taxable accounts

I must be getting old -- I remember when there were no tax-advantaged accounts like a Roth IRA or a 401(k)... You have an amount to save and invest for the future. You have a certain amount of tax-advantaged space to save it in -- which isn't as big as you would like. Presumably, you have an overall...